基于STPA的城市埋地燃气管道第三方破坏风险因素分析

城市埋地燃气管道输送介质易燃易爆、埋设环境人口密集、施工频繁,极易受到来自第三方的破坏,直接威胁人们的生命财产安全,因此对第三方破坏的风险因素分析和防治十分必要。系统理论过程分析法(STPA)是一种基于系统理论的风险分析方法,该方法不同于传统的风险分析方法——将事故视为由初始事件诱发的一系列事件造成的后果,而是对燃气系统从设计、开发和运行过程进行分析,建立系统安全控制结构,通过分析控制缺陷和缺陷致因实现对风险因素的分析。研究分析出24个燃气管道第三方破坏的风险因素,针对风险因素提出了建议,为燃气管道第三方破坏的风险控制提供依据。     

基于历史记录的赤潮灾害危险性区划方法的构建与应用

利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间...     

桂林市菜地土壤和蔬菜铅含量调查与污染评价

从桂林市采集566个蔬菜样品以及相对应的160个菜地土壤样品,同时还采集了背景土壤样品32个,测试其w(Pb),结合GIS制图和数理统计,对土壤铅空间分布特征、土壤和蔬菜中Pb的含量与富集特征进行了分析. 结果表明:桂林市土壤w(Pb)空间差异大,呈西南低、东部和北部高的特点;桂林市菜地土壤w(Pb)的范围、算术平均值和几何平均值分别为10.14～249.00、43.80和38.62 mg/kg,与背景土壤相比,菜地土壤铅积累显著(P为0.001). 蔬菜(以鲜质量计)中w(Pb)范围、中值和几何平均值分别为0.001～1.425、0.050和0.042 mg/kg,综合超标率为6.71%;叶菜类蔬菜w(Pb)显著高于根茎类和瓜果类,甘蓝、萝卜、西红柿和豆类的抗铅污染能力最强,而辣椒和茼蒿的抗铅污染能力则较差;桂林市居民人均通过蔬菜消费摄入铅的量为13.0 μg/d,不存在明显的健康风险.      

针对安全生产隐患的智能搜索引擎系统研究

为解决用户在现有搜索引擎上难以检索到专业和全面的安全生产隐患知识的问题,提出一种安全生产隐患数据的挖掘方法和针对安全生产隐患的智能搜索引擎系统的设计方法。结果表明:对于用户的搜索,系统能够直接反馈智能化查询结果,包括:隐患内容、隐患来源、隐患的行业,隐患场所、法规标准、事故信息等数据以及数据之间的关联关系。给出的示例和结果图表,说明了这种数据挖掘方法的有效性;对相关智能搜索引擎系统的组成、工作原理及实现方式的阐述,说明了系统设计方法的有效性,可为安全生产隐患智能搜索引擎系统的设计与开发提供参考。     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

Volcanic hazard or economic destitution: hard choices in Banños,Ecuador

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.     

Field dissipation and health hazard assessment of Fenhexamid on Egyptian grapes

Dissipation behavior and hazard assessment of the fungicide fenhexamid applied to grapes were investigated under climatic conditions in Egypt. Fenhexamid residues were extracted from grape samples with ethyl acetate. The extract was cleaned up by QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe) method, and determined by gas chromatographic method (GC-μECD). The average recoveries ranged between 94.2% and 99.4% with associated relative standard deviation not exceeding 12%. The estimated limit of quantification for fenhexamid was 0.1 mg/kg. The field results showed that fenhexamid dissipated rapidly from grapes and had a half-life of approximately 4.21 days. Hazard assessment was evaluated by using the hazard quotient (HQ). Data showed that the HQ value was significantly less than HQ = 1. Results indicate that hazard of fenhexamid use in grape even at 1.5-fold higher than recommended dosage was negligible to humans. This study could provide guidance for safe and reasonable use of fenhexamid in grapes and prevent health problems to consumers. However, further hazard assessment studies are needed to ascertain the hazard of fenhexamid residues on grape to vulnerable groups, including children, pregnant women, and elderly consumers.     

Green thermal analysis for predicting thermal hazard of storage and transportation safety for tert-butyl peroxybenzoate

Liquid organic peroxides, such as tert-butyl peroxybenzoate (TBPB), have been widely employed in the petrifaction industry as a polymerization formation agent. This study investigated the thermokinetic parameters of TBPB by isothermal kinetic algorithms and non-isothermal kinetic equations, using thermal activity monitor III (TAM III) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), respectively. Simulations of 0.5 L, 25 kg, 55 gallon, and 400 kg reactors in liquid thermal explosion models were performed and compared to the results in the literature. A green thermal analysis was developed for a reactor containing TBPB to prevent pollution and reduce the energy consumption by thermal decomposition. It is based on the thermal hazard properties, such as the heat of decomposition (ΔH_d), activation energy (E_a), self-accelerating decomposition temperature (SADT), control temperature (CT), emergency temperature (ET), and critical temperature (TCR). From the experimental results, the optimal conditions to avoid violent runaway reactions during the storage and transportation of TBPB were determined.     

锂离子电池火灾危险性研究

为解决锂离子电池在应用、运输中的火灾安全问题,并为锂离子电池火灾扑灭技术研究提供支撑,以钴酸锂18650型及大容量的聚合物锂离子电池为研究对象,通过开展针刺、短路、耐热等滥用试验寻求锂离子电池及电池组引发火灾的条件和因素。通过开展燃烧试验,分析锂离子电池的燃烧特点。试验结果表明:正极材料为钴酸锂的18650型锂离子电池自燃温度约为170℃,大容量的聚合物锂离子电池组在内部短路后,可能发生燃烧甚至轰燃现象且燃烧残留物温度高,易引发火灾;18650型锂离子电池在短路条件下会长时间持续放热,存在引发火灾的可能;单只锂离子电池燃烧后能够引燃相邻的电池,从而形成电池组的连锁燃烧反应。     

基于博弈论石化园区火灾跨区域灭火救援研究

为解决石油化工园区火灾跨区域灭火救援面临的多消防中队相互协作、消防资源优化配置等复杂问题,搭建以新疆阿克苏地区消防力量为救援基础的原油储罐火灾场景,结合Gambit软件建立博弈计算模型,设计跨区域灭火救援方案的通用流程。针对不同火灾规模,以跨区域灭火救援通用制定流程为指导,计算出相应的消防中队战斗组合及救援力量输出。针对火灾发展的不确定性,通过混合策略博弈计算进一步调整和完善跨区域灭火救援方案。结果表明,采用博弈论方法能够提供针对消防资源调度分配的新方法,用以制定更快速和易于调整的灭火救援方案。