Mitigating flood risk and enhancing community resilience to natural disasters: plan quality matters

In response to increasingly frequent and severe flooding events, tracking the explanatory elements of integrative planning effort can provide useful assessment of initiatives that foster improved community disaster resiliency. In this research, we address the effect of local hazard mitigation plan quality on mitigating disaster risk with an emphasis on the relationship between plan quality and community resilience. Using content analysis and principles of plan quality metrics, we evaluate local hazard mitigation plans to determine how well they support disaster risk reduction. Analytically, these metrics and relevant controls were incorporated into both a log-linear two-stage least squares model and a quantile regression model to explain flood loss at the county level for the US Mississippi River Basin. Findings suggest that better plan quality and high levels of community resilience result in reducing disaster losses.     

Bridging international relations and disaster studies: the case of disaster–conflict scholarship

International relations and disaster studies have much to gain by thinking critically about their respective theoretical and epistemological assumptions. Yet, few studies to date have sought to assess the potential value of linking these two disciplines. This paper begins to address this shortfall by examining the relationship between disasters and conflict as a research sphere that intersects international relations and disaster studies. Through an analysis of whether or not disasters contribute to intra‐national and international conflict, this paper not only provides a review of the state of the art, but also serves to invite scholars to reflect on related concepts from other fields to strengthen their own approaches to the study of disasters in an international setting. An evaluation of the conceptual and theoretical contributions of each subject area provides useful heuristics for the development of disaster–conflict scholarship and encourages alternative modes of knowledge production through interdisciplinarity.     

温带风暴潮灾害链的识别与区分--以莱州湾风暴潮为例

我国温带风暴潮灾害主要集中在渤海、黄海沿岸,其中莱州湾沿岸是频繁发生的重灾区。以识别莱州湾沿岸发生的温带风暴潮灾害链的组成为研究目标,通过2次典型灾害事件分析了温带风暴潮灾害的成因、发生及其演化规律等问题,进而识别了温带风暴潮灾害链发生过程中的灾害类别及相应致灾因子,根据致灾过程提出了5种灾害链条,最后区分了不同行业灾害损失中主要致灾因子的作用。研究结果可对温带风暴潮灾害链的预警及减灾工作提供决策支持。     

Research on the critical temperature of thermal decomposition for large cartridge emulsion explosives

Emulsion explosives are one type of main industrial explosives. The emergence of the large cartridge emulsion explosives has brought new security incidents. The differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) and the accelerating rate calorimeter (ARC) were selected for the preliminary investigation of the thermal stability of emulsion explosives. The results showed that the initial thermal decomposition temperatures were in the range of 232–239 °C in nitrogen atmosphere (220–232 °C in oxygen atmosphere) in DSC measurements and 216 °C in ARC measurements. The slow cook-off experiments were carried out to investigate the critical temperature of the thermal decomposition (T_c) of the large cartridge emulsion explosives. The results indicated that the larger the diameter of the emulsion explosives, the smaller the T_c is. For the large cartridge emulsion explosives with diameter of 70 mm, the T_c was 170 °C at the heating rate of 3 °C h⁻¹. It is a dangerous temperature for the production of the large cartridge emulsion explosives and it should cause our attention.     

Quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios in complex industrial areas

Since the late 80s the application of quantitative risk assessment to the issue of land-use planning with respect to major accident hazards emerged as a topic to be addressed within the safety assessment of chemical and process plants. However, in the case of industrial clusters or complex industrial areas specific methodologies are needed to deal with high-impact low-probability (HILP) events. In the present study, innovative methodologies developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino and NaTech scenarios are presented. In recent years a set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability were developed. A specific effort was dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability in these accident scenarios. In the present study, the application of these models to case-studies was analyzed. The results of the improved models obtained for NaTech quantitative assessment were compared to previous results in the literature. A specific innovative approach was developed to multi-level quantitative assessment of domino scenarios, and its potential was analyzed. The results were examined also evidencing the role and the progress with respect to the pioneering work started on these topics by Franco Foraboschi.     

建筑物震害的类比预测方法研究

在“同一场地上相似的两幢建筑物,未来具有相似的震害程度”的假设前提下,提出了如何利用一个地区的部分建筑物单体的震害预测结果,对这一地区的其它建筑物单体的震害进行预测的方法,并从结构抗震角度研究了如何用加权Ｈａｍ－ｍｉｎｇ距离度量两幢建筑物的相似程度。     

城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型

利用模糊集方法建立了城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型。二级模型适用于单一致灾因子的分析。结合文[1]提出的一级模型,即可构成完整的城市自然灾害风险评价体系。     

地震灾害损失预测（综述）

地震危害性评定和损失预测是一个富有挑战性的科学问题，对于减轻地震灾害具有十分重要的意义。本文对近年来地震危害性的研究的现状、问题、困难和发展的趋势进行了简要的综述。     

The choice of the cutoff grade in mining

In simple models, the cutoff grade has been shown to depend on the rate of growth of price net of the interest rate. But there is disagreement in the literature about whether the cutoff grade is positively or negatively related to this variable. In a model which involves two stages of production and a general grade distribution, we find that the rate of growth of price net of the interest rate has an influence, but that the sign of the effect is ambiguous because it depends on a complicated factor involving technical, mine-specific elasticities. This mine-specificity is consistent with the fact that engineering textbooks present the problem of optimal exploitation very simply, using a constant grade, and the fact that engineers use simulation in decision making. It also points to the possibility of moral hazard in exploitation, a possibility of potential concern to managers, shareholders and policy makers.     

Evaluation of municipal solid waste composting kinetics

Most modern municipal solid waste (MSW) composting operations have emphasized the enhancement of decomposition of the organic fraction of the waste to comply with strict environmental regulations. This can be achieved once the composting process kinetics are well understood. This study examined process kinetics through experimentation with bench-scale reactors under controlled composting conditions to show the interdependence between biological, chemical and physical factors during composting of MSW. The effects of temperature, moisture content, waste particle size and carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratio on process kinetics were evaluated. The results obtained revealed that these factors should be carefully controlled in order to achieve optimum process performance. It has been found that the organic matter degradation during composting follows a first-order kinetic model.