模糊综合评价法在道路运输企业安全评价中的应用

我国道路运输企业交通安全形势比较严峻,推行道路运输企业安全综合评价是降低道路运输企业交通事故的有效途径之一.本文运用Delphi法和AHP法建立了道路运输企业安全层次分析模型,构建了安全综合评价指标体系.选用基于"差动"原理的赋权法--G1法计算各指标的权重,应用模糊综合评价法对其进行安全综合评价.采用平均加权法对评价因素的各项指标进行量化处理,从而得到道路运输企业安全的综合评价结果.最后,对陕西省一家道路运输企业进行了实际验证,比较真实地反映了此企业的安全状况.     

Shipyard fatalities in Turkey

The objective of this paper is to investigate causes and incidence rates of 115 fatalities between 2000 and 2010 in Turkish shipyards and to propose mitigation measures. The fatality rate in Turkish shipbuilding industry is unacceptably high, being 3.5 times the average of all industry groups. Classification of fatal occupational accidents revealed five major fatality reasons for the shipbuilding industry; falling from higher elevation to a lower level, exposed to electric shock, fire and/or explosion, being struck by or struck against objects, and caught in between. The highest number of cases of fatal accidents was found among welders, blasters, painters and substructure workers. Statistically analyzed data showed that working on Mondays and Saturdays have special impact on the fatality probability. Also, the number of fatalities is highest in working temperatures above average 25 °C, which covers from June through September. Strategies recommended to minimize the fatalities at shipyards are discussed. Furthermore a risk framework of fatal occupational accidents were drawn so that when working conditions are within the high risk region, extra precautions can be taken in order to minimize the occurrence of accidents and fatalities.     

Investigating the effect of geometric dimensions of median traffic barriers on crashes: Crash analysis of interstate roads in Wyoming using actual crash datasets

IntroductionDespite the numerous safety studies done on traffic barriers’ performance assessment, the effect of variables such as traffic barrier’s height has not been identified considering a comprehensive actual crash data analysis. This study seeks to identify the impact of geometric variables (i.e., height, post-spacing, sideslope ratio, and lateral offset) on median traffic barriers’ performance in crashes on interstate roads.MethodGeometric dimensions of over 110 miles median traffic barriers on interstate Wyoming roads were inventoried in a field survey between 2016 and 2018. Then, the traffic barrier data collected was combined with historical crash records, traffic volume data, road geometric characteristics, and weather condition data to provide a comprehensive dataset for the analysis. Finally, an ordered logit model with random-parameters was developed for the severity of traffic barrier crashes. Based on the results, traffic barrier’s height was found to impact crash severity.ResultsCrashes involving cable barriers with a height between 30″ and 42″ were less severe than other traffic barrier types, while concrete barriers with a height shorter than 32″ were more likely involved with severe injury crashes. As another important finding, the post-spacing of 6.1–6.3 ft. was identified as the least severe range in W-beam barriers.Practical applicationsThe results show that using flare barriers should reduce the number of crashes compared to parallel barriers.     

Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.     

基于ISM的建筑施工高处坠落事故致因分析

高处坠落是建筑工程事故统计中发生频率最高的一类事故,会造成极大的人员伤害和经济损失。通过分析123例典型高处坠落事故调查报告,采用关键词检索抽取出19种导致该类事故发生的致因要素;针对一般事故和较大事故分别对致因要素发生频率进行了统计,得出一般事故中人的因素更关键,较大事故中物的因素更关键。采用ISM模型进一步分析致因要素间的作用关系,构建了7个层级的高处坠落致因要素解释结构模型;对不同层级要素进行分析,发现其与频率度量有良好的一致性,最后得出行政监管和违法承发包两个致因要素是事故发生的深层原因。     

Carbon monoxide levels at a toll plaza near Durban, South Africa

Reliable measurements of pollutant levels in the vicinity of a toll plaza appear to be rare. In order to assess the exposure of toll booth operators to carbon monoxide, a continuous carbon monoxide monitor was installed at head height in the booth of a medium density traffic lane at the Mariannhill toll plaza, situated on a busy highway near Durban, South Africa. Measurements in excess of 500 ppmv were recorded and the high daily mean carbon monoxide concentrations may account for some of the symptoms such as headaches and general malaise that have been reported by workers in the booths. Generally, carbon monoxide levels recorded far exceed the recommended limit set by the South African authorities. These results have led to recommendations regarding the structure of new and existing toll booths to minimize the exposure of toll booth workers to adverse effects of vehicle-emitted pollutants.     

Traffic congestion and ozone precursor emissions in Bilbao (Spain)

GOAL. SCOPE. BACKGROUND: In urban environments, the measured levels of ozone are the result of the interaction between emissions of precursors (mainly VOCs and NOx) and meteorological effects. In this work, time series of daily values of ozone, measured at three locations in Bilbao (Spain), have been built. Then, after removing meteorological effects from them, ozone and traffic data have been analyzed jointly. The goal was to identify traffic situations and link them to ozone levels in the area of Bilbao. METHODS: To remove meteorological effects from the selected ozone time series, the technique developed by Rao and Zurbenko was used. This is a widely used technique and, after its application, the fraction obtained from a given ozone time series represents an ozone forming capability attributable to emissions of precursors. This fraction is devoid of any meteorological influence and includes only the apportion of periodicities above 1.7 years. In the case of Bilbao, the ozone fractions obtained at three locations have been compared on that time scale with traffic data from the area. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For the 1993-1996 period, a regression analysis of the ozone and traffic fractions due to periodicities above 1.7 years (long-term fractions), shows that traffic is the main explanatory factor for ozone with R2 ranging from 0.916 to 0.996 at the three locations studied. Analysis of these longterm fractions has made it possible to identify two traffic regimes for the whole area, associated to different profiles of ozone forming capability. The first one favors low ozone forming capability, and is associated with a situation of fluent traffic. The second one shows high ozone forming capability and represents congestion. Joint analysis of raw data of ozone and traffic do not show any clear pattern due to the strong masking effects that seasonal-meteorological effects (mainly radiation) have on the measured ozone signal. If only immission data of ozone are available, as in this case, a comparison between ozone and traffic can only be made on the long-term time scale, since that is the only fraction embedded in the ozone time series that can exclusively be attributed to emissions of precursors. This fact stresses the need to study the different fractions embedded in the time series of ozone measured levels separately. CONCLUSION: Though the coefficients obtained in the regression are only valid for the 1993-1996 period, these traffic regimes represent long-term targets (congestion or fluent traffic) that can inspire policies for a joint management of the traffic and pollution by ozone in the area of Bilbao beyond that period. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: The results of this work show the need of a joint management of ozone and traffic in Bilbao. Since an accurate knowledge of traffic was not available, the use of emission factors to relate traffic and actual ozone levels has not been possible. For this reason, this study has focused on the long-term fractions of traffic and ozone. In the future, if a more accurate knowledge of traffic is available, it will be possible to find relationships between traffic and ozone on all time scales.     

2002-2014年我国煤矿重特大事故特征及发生规律研究

为了研究我国煤矿重特大事故的一般规律,分析了2002-2014年我国煤矿发生的421起重特大事故,得到我国煤矿重特大事故的基本特征.利用统计分析法从地域、类型、所有制3个维度综合分析了421起煤矿重特大事故.结果表明:山西、贵州、河南、黑龙江和湖南5个省份的重特大事故起数和死亡人数分别占全国总数的56.1％和56.8％,是我国需重点监管和治理的省份,并对山西、河南和黑龙江3省重特大事故频发的原因进行了分析;瓦斯事故和水害事故的发生起数及死亡人数占比分别为83.3％和86.3％,是需要重点防治的事故类型;国有重点煤矿重特大事故平均每起死亡人数为29.87,且近两年重特大事故起数和死亡人数均大幅度上升,是需要重点防范的对象;乡镇煤矿重特大事故起数及死亡人数下降速度均较快,但事故起数和死亡人数仍较多,是国家重点监控、治理的对象.     

Assessment of patients' medical fitness to drive by primary care physicians: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are a significant health burden in Saudi Arabia. The literature has consistently indicated that chronic medical conditions, such as diabetes, heart disease, stroke, obstructive sleep apnea, and neurodevelopmental disorders, increase the risk of MVCs. Therefore, assessment of driver fitness by primary care physicians (PCPs) remains a major health intervention that might reduce MVCs. We studied the practices of PCPs in assessing medical fitness to drive in at-risk patients.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of all 88 government-funded primary care centers in the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We administered a self-reported questionnaire to PCPs that inquired about their driving risk assessment for specific medical conditions.

Results: Among all PCPs and centers, 189 PCPs (63%) from 74 centers (84%) participated in our survey. The mean age of the PCPs was 40 ± 10 years, and 108 (57%) were men. The average clinical experience of the group was 13 ± 9 years. Fewer than half of PCPs considered diabetes mellitus (45%) and obstructive sleep apnea (46%) as potential risks for MVCs. Approximately 45% of PCPs did not notify any authority or relatives of potential driving issues that they noticed in their patients. Only 15% of the participants believed that PCPs were responsible for alerting authorities about their fitness to drive.

Conclusions: PCPs did not adequately assess their patients' driving history and eligibility. Efforts are needed to improve awareness among PCPs regarding the effects of chronic medical conditions on driving.     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.