某炼油厂冷却循环水系统故障与危害性分析

根据采集的某炼油厂一年的冷却循环水系统的故障数据,采用故障模式影响及危害性分析方法对该系统的可靠性进行了分析.由该系统结构特点,划分了水冷塔、换热器、水冷塔风机、水泵、水管、阀门等7个子系统及19种故障模式,统计了各子系统的故障率,分析了系统的故障模式及其故障原因,计算了各子系统的危害度.结果表明水泵及水冷塔风机的危害度最高,换热器的危害度排第三,但其故障率排第四,说明在做故障分析时不能只统计故障率而不进行危害度分析.最后提出了相应的改进措施,经过一年的实际运行,效果明显.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from discrete choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to be undefined. This occurs because the cost parameter's standard error implies some possibility the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the (negative) cost variable's coefficient using an exponential transformation to enforce the theoretically correct positive coefficient. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved.     

不同警告方式下驾驶人应激反应能力模拟试验研究

为研究在道路突发危险场景下先进驾驶辅助系统的不同警告方式对驾驶人应激反应能力的影响，利用自主开发的驾驶人应激反应能力测试软件，以计算机模拟与驾驶模拟器为试验平台，以实际驾驶视频为试验场景，选取操作准确率和反应时间为测试指标，分析不同警告方式下驾驶人的应激反应能力。研究结果表明:视觉警告可有效缩短应激反应时间；视听觉组合警告中，视觉警告占主导作用，听觉警告起辅助作用；在真实场景视频试验环境下，驾驶模拟器模拟试验的操作效果优于计算机模拟试验。     

Effects of release pressure on the transportation characteristics in pipeline and the diffusion behaviors in enclosure space of typical gas extinguishing agent

Reducing the release pressure of fire extinguishing systems can decrease potential safety hazards in large transport airplanes. To explore whether reducing the release pressure can achieve the release effect required by the airworthiness standards or not, the transportation characteristics in the pipeline and diffusion behaviors in the enclosure space of a typical fire extinguishing agent (Halon 1301) were investigated under five release pressures in the present study. The effects of the release pressure on the degree of superheat, injection duration, jet structure, and concentration distribution of Halon 1301 were analyzed. The results show that both of the degree of superheat and the injection duration decrease with an increase in the release pressure. The supplement of bubble expansion in the fire extinguishing agent can slow down the pressure decrease in the vessel. Both of the maximum and mean values of the pipeline differential pressure increase with an increase in release pressure. The maximum value of the jet angle decreases linearly with the increase in release pressure, and the jet deflects upward owing to the effects of buoyancy. The maximum concentration value decreases with an increase in the distance from the nozzle. The maximum concentration values in the near field from the nozzle increase with an increase in the release pressure. Under five release pressures, the concentration and holding time (duration above 6% volume concentration) of Halon 1301 on the centerline of the jet meet the requirements of airworthiness provisions.     

障碍物排列方式对海洋平台蒸气云爆炸的影响

为了了解障碍物排列方式对海洋平台蒸气云爆炸的影响,基于CFD方法建立蒸气云爆炸计算模型,选用国外MERGE项目的系列爆炸实验进行模型验证,提出用于衡量障碍物排列不均匀度的量化参数,针对海洋平台典型结构形式,分析障碍物排列方式对爆炸强度的影响。研究结果表明:蒸气云爆炸后果对于结构排列方式比较敏感,结构障碍物间隔均匀排列的形式造成的爆炸冲击作用最大;在爆炸发展初期阶段,障碍物阻塞程度对超压产生和发展影响更加显著。最后,基于研究结果,给出在海洋平台油气泄漏危险区将管线沿甲板非均匀排列布置等防控建议,为海洋平台蒸气云爆炸安全防控提供理论指导。     

Solitary nesting as an alternative breeding tactic in colonial nesting bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus)

Colonial breeding can evolve in response to benefits afforded by clumped individuals, such as reduced predation and increased ease of assessing potential mates. However, colonial breeding can also impose costs such as increased disease transmission or increased cuckoldry. Here, we investigate solitary nesting as a potential alternative breeding tactic in colonial breeding bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus). Most male bluegill, termed parentals, compete for nesting sites in colonies and then court and spawn with females and provide sole care of the eggs. Although nesting in a colony results in reduced predation and fungal infection of broods, it comes at a cost of increased parasitism by specialized cuckolder males that do not nest. We found that 4.5% of parentals forgo spawning in a colony and instead construct nests solitarily. Solitary males were of similar size and age to colonial males, but were in significantly better condition. Solitary males obtained as many eggs as males nesting in the center of colonies, and significantly more than males nesting on the periphery of colonies. Thus, females do not appear to discriminate against solitary males. Solitary males had smaller ear tabs, a presumed sexually selected character used by parental males in intrasexual competition, than colonial males. Tracking data revealed consistency in nesting tactic (but not nest position within the colony) between spawning attempts. We suggest that solitary nesting represents either a facultative decision made by parental males in top condition at the onset of breeding, or a life history decision to forgo spawning in colonies.Communicated by K. Lindström     

Asexuals looking for sex: conflict between species and mate-quality recognition in sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna)

When two closely related species are sympatric the process of species recognition (identifying conspecifics) and mate-quality recognition (increased fitness benefits) can yield a conflict when heterospecifics resemble high-quality conspecifics. Conflict in species versus mate-quality recognition may serve as a possible mechanism for the persistence of unisexual, gynogenetic Amazon mollies (Poecilia formosa). Amazon mollies require sperm from closely related species (e.g., sailfin mollies, P. latipinna) to start embryogenesis but inheritance is strictly maternal. When choosing mates, male sailfin mollies from populations sympatric with Amazon mollies may rely on traits indicating species identity rather than those indicating mate quality. Conversely, males from allopatric populations may rely more on traits indicating mate quality. Previous work has found that male sailfin mollies in sympatry exhibit a significantly greater mating preference for female sailfin mollies over Amazon mollies compared to males in allopatry. In addition, male sailfin mollies prefer to associate with and produce more sperm in the presence of larger conspecific females, which are more fecund. We hypothesized that male sailfin mollies experience a conflict in species recognition and mate-quality recognition in the presence of Amazon mollies that are relatively larger than female sailfin mollies. To test this hypothesis, we paired males from sympatric and allopatric populations with a larger Amazon molly and a smaller female sailfin molly. We scored the number of mating attempts that males directed to conspecific and heterospecific females. Males in most sympatric and allopatric populations demonstrate no clear preference for conspecifics. In addition, we found some evidence for a difference in mating preference between allopatric and sympatric populations with males from allopatry showing a greater heterospecific mate preference. These results indicate a conflict between species and mate-quality recognition. In sympatry this conflict may contribute to the persistence of gynogenetic Amazon mollies.     

Stochastic bycatch, informational asymmetry, and discarding

The existing literature (i) examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and (ii) treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels. Using a dynamic representative agent model in a two-stock resource, this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters, one of which imposes a stochastic “technological externality” (bycatch) on the other. In addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry, three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case: taxes, trip limits, and value-based quotas. Implementation and enforcement costs aside, taxes dominate both types of quota, and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding. In simulations, relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process, differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks, relative efficiency of the harvester types, and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins.     

Long-term mate and territory fidelity in neotropical buff-breasted wrens (Thryothorus leucotis)

Among sedentary species, mate and site fidelity may be imposed by year-round territoriality and high annual survivorship, both of which theoretically lead to few opportunities to move between mates and breeding territories. We examined mate and territory fidelity in sedentary neotropical buff-breasted wrens (Thryothorus leucotis) in relation to the opportunities to divorce (vacancies on neighbouring territories), breeding experience and site of origin (within vs outside local breeding population). Overall, buff-breasted wrens showed high rates of mate and territory fidelity between years, with individuals significantly more faithful to their territories than to their partners. Mate and territory fidelity was not forced upon buff-breasted wrens, as most individuals had opportunities to switch mates and territories. However, this was not uniform among all individuals. Individuals that had bred together displayed 100% mate and territory fidelity despite the fact that males and females in almost all experienced pairs had opportunities to switch mates and territories. Local recruits (philopatric offspring that acquired territories in the local breeding population) also displayed mate and territory fidelity, but fidelity occurred because recruits rarely had the opportunity to divorce prior to initiating their first breeding attempt. By contrast, almost half of all territorial individuals that originated outside the local breeding population (immigrants) had opportunity to divorce, with approximately two thirds of them switching mates and territories. Divorces occurred within the first 5 months of pairing, suggesting that immigrants may have sampled mates and territories before forming permanent partnerships.