岷江上游山区聚落生态位地理特征与驱动因子间关系研究

山区聚落生态位反映聚落在山地垂直方向上所处的空间位置及人类生活所能利用的资源空间,是当地居民长期适应山地自然环境的结果。基于岷江上游各民族山区聚落生态位和气象、社会、地形驱动因子的空间分布,借助冗余分析,构建山区聚落生态位地理特征与驱动因子间的多水平贝叶斯模型,定量刻画聚落生态位的民族属性对山区聚落生态位地理特征与驱动因子间关系的影响。结果表明:(1)影响研究区域内1 667个与各民族聚落生态位地理特征的驱动因子有显著差异,海拔和坡度对前者影响较大,海拔、坡度、干季和湿季湿度、距河流距离对后者影响较大,且海拔对两者的影响程度都最大,海拔和坡度地形驱动因子与干、湿季湿度和距河流距离间的相关性较弱。(2)干、湿季湿度气象驱动因子对藏-羌聚落生态位地理特征影响较大,距河流距离和距县城距离社会驱动因子、海拔和坡度地形驱动因子对藏族聚落生态位地理特征影响较大,这与藏族聚落生态位的分布面积和个数有关。(3)民族类型对聚落生态位地理特征指标与气象因子干季湿度间关系的影响最大,对聚落生态位地理特征指标与地形因子坡度间关系的影响最小。岷江上游山区聚落生态位地理特征与驱动因子间关系的研究,为量化山区聚落生态位与山地环境的关系提供了有效的数据支撑。     

典型北方滨海核电厂温排水混合区边缘温升限值研究

随着我国电力事业的快速发展,电厂循环冷却水(温排水)的余热排放对受纳水体生态环境造成的负面热影响(即热污染)已日益引起社会关注。基于国内现有的温排水排放控制标准可执行性不强的现状,对我国电厂温排水的热污染控制标准的基础技术要素——温排水混合区边缘温升限值进行了研究。以我国北方某典型滨海核电厂址邻近海域的代表性海洋生物为研究对象,以各季节不同受试物种最大临界温度(CTM)的统计分析结果,作为确定该厂址温排水混合区边缘温升限值的主要依据。并结合法规调研法,最终确定该典型滨海核电厂址温排水混合区边缘温升限值的推荐值为3.6℃。     

Meeting Concentration Targets in the Post-Kyoto World: Does Kyoto Further a Least Cost Strategy?

Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.     

Evaluation of approaches to calculate critical metal loads for forest ecosystems

This paper evaluates approaches to calculate acceptable loads for metal deposition to forest ecosystems, distinguishing between critical loads, stand-still loads and target loads. We also evaluated the influence of including the biochemical metal cycle on the calculated loads. Differences are illustrated by examples of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn for a deciduous forest on five major soil types in the Netherlands. Stand-still loads are generally lower than critical loads, which in turn are lower than the target loads indicating that present levels are below critical levels. Uncertainties in the calculated critical loads are mainly determined by the uncertainty in the critical limits and the chemical speciation model. Including the metal cycle has a small effect on the calculated critical loads. Results are discussed in view of the applicability of the critical load concept for metals in future protocols on the reduction in metal emissions.     

Threatened Peripheral Populations in Context: Geographical Variation in Population Frequency and Size and Sexual Reproduction in a Clonal Woody Shrub

Abstract:  Geographically peripheral populations of widespread species are often the focus of conservation because they are locally rare within political jurisdictions. Yet the ecology and genetics of these populations are rarely evaluated in a broader geographic context. Most expectations concerning the ecology and evolution of peripheral populations derive from the abundant-center model, which predicts that peripheral populations should be less frequent, smaller, less dense, and have a lower reproductive rate than central populations. We tested these predictions and in doing so evaluated the conservation value of peripheral populations for the clonal shrub Vaccinium stamineum L. (Ericaceae, deerberry), which is listed as threatened in Canada. Based on 51 populations sampled from the center to the northern range limits over 2 years, population frequency and size declined toward the range limit, but ramet density increased. Sexual reproductive output varied widely among populations and between years, with many populations producing very few seeds, but did not decline toward range margins. In fact seed mass increased steadily toward range limit, and this was associated with faster germination and seedling growth, which may be adaptive in seasonal northern environments. Our results did not support the prediction that clonal reproduction is more prevalent in peripheral populations or that it contributed antagonistically to the wide variation in seed production. Peripheral populations of V. stamineum are as productive as central populations and may be locally adapted to northern environments. This emphasizes the importance of a broad geographical perspective for evaluating the ecology, evolution, and conservation of peripheral populations.     

Adaptation to What and Why?

Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century.Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.     

高寒山地甘肃臭草斑块特征与土壤水分的关系

选取石羊河上游高寒退化草地甘肃臭草种群,分析斑块特征、土壤水分以及二者之间的相互关系,以期了解植被对土壤水分变化的适应性和反作用特征.结果表明:甘肃臭草斑块在形成、扩散和稳定阶段种群高度、密度、盖度由中心向边缘逐渐减小,衰退阶段由中心向边缘逐渐增大,甘肃臭草斑块内土壤水分由中心向边缘逐渐增大,斑块内土壤水分大于斑块外;斑块内土壤水分与植被主要生物学特征之间由负相关向正相关过渡.甘肃臭草具有明显的可塑性,通过对干旱区环境的长期适应,改变了小范围内土壤水分分布结构,进而形成繁茂生长的单一优势种群斑块.表3参16     

镁铝双氢氧化物对无卤阻燃EVA的协效阻燃效果研究

利用共沉淀法合成了镁铝双氢氧化物（MgAl-LDH）,采用熔融共混的方法,制备了含Mgal—LDH片层的无卤阻燃EVA纳米复合材料,通过多种表征手段分析研究了MgAl-LDH对无卤阻燃EVA（乙烯-醋酸乙烯酯共聚物）的协效阻燃效果。扫描电镜（SEM）和透射电镜（TEM）的结果表明LDH的片层能够促进阻燃剂在EVA基体中的分散;锥形量热仪（Conecalorimetry）燃烧测试表明协效阻燃EVA的热释放速率相对于纯阻燃EVA显著降低,其他主要燃烧参数也有同样的变化趋势,说明MgAl-LDH具有良好的协效阻燃作用。材料的燃烧残余物的形貌分析表明,LDH协效阻燃EVA在燃烧过程中能形成致密而连续的保护层,有效阻隔材料在燃烧过程中气体挥发物的扩散和与燃烧环境间能量的交换,提高燃烧残留量,降低材料的火灾危险性。     

空气质量监测中标准状态对测定结果的影响及建议

环境空气质量标准中各种污染物的浓度限值是评价、考核空气质量状况的基本依据。为了保证在不同时空、不同环境状况下监测数据的可比性,各个国家或组织在制定的空气质量标准中对标准状态(温度和压力)进行了定义。但是,由于标准状态定义不同,即使是同一环境状况下的同一实测结果进行标化计算后的污染物浓度也不相同,达不到可比性的基本原则。因此,建议中国在未来修订空气质量标准所采用的标准状态,进一步与国际接轨。     

长江上游水土流失主要成因与防治对策

长江上游水土流失面积广 ,侵蚀强度大 ,是其生态环境退化的重要标志。水土流失加剧是人类不合理活动 ,主要有陡坡种植、森林砍伐、草场退化、工程破坏等所使然。当前严重的水土流失状况是自然因素与人为因素综合作用的结果。防治长江上游水土流失关键是通过改变人类不合理的生产方式和开发方式 ,引导人类活动向与自然协调、与水土保持相一致的方向发展 ,并对退化生态系统进行恢复与重建。