基于最小路集求可靠度函数的系统Bayes置信限评估

阐述了复杂系统的Bayes置信限评估原理,并将其与最小路集求可靠度函数的方法相结合,对已知系统可靠性框图或可靠度函数的复杂系统进行可靠度置信限评估.该方法便于工程应用,对于大型复杂系统可靠性评定,具有重要的参考价值.     

膨胀土路基水毁灾害及其粗糙神经网络预测

通过对膨胀土地质灾害的总结，提出了膨胀土路基水毁灾害的分类分级方法，并根据常用的地质灾害预测办法，指出膨胀土路基水毁灾害的预测是一个典型的非线性问题，当考虑降雨、干旱等气候因素耦合影响时，宜进行危险性点评估。提出了采用粗糙神经网络对膨胀土路基水毁灾害进行评价和预测的方法，并运用粗糙集理论确定了该神经网络的结构。同时，以某膨胀土路基水毁大型模型试验的数据为例，进行了灾害预测，结果表明，将粗糙神经网络运用于膨胀土路基的水毁灾害预测是切实可行的。     

基于Vague集的城市地震灾害综合脆弱性度量及其应用

为度量城市地震灾害综合脆弱性及灾害中生命及财产的可挽救性,将社会脆弱性、应急系统脆弱性引入城市综合脆弱性研究。利用Vague集的相似度量理论,构建基于Vague集的城市地震灾害综合脆弱性度量模型;扩展可挽救性的概念,建立基于综合脆弱性度量的城市地震灾害可挽救性度量模型。以2003年日本北海道地震损失为标准,通过上述2个模型,得到某城市地震灾害综合脆弱度为2.76×10-4,可挽救度分别为:死亡人数减少18人、重伤人数减少72人、直接经济损失减少0.2亿元人民币。     

基于Vague集的集对分析在湖泊富营养化评价中的应用

针对湖泊富营养化评价的不确定型多属性决策问题,提出了Vague集的集对分析模型,详细介绍了集对分析和Vague集的基本理论、Vague集的表示方法和Vague集相似度的同异反状态关系.建立了湖泊富营养化评价指标体系,引入了超标权重确定各湖泊指标权重,再依据待评湖泊关于等级i特征的Vague集和理想Vague集的相似度构成特征值法确定评价等级,并应用该模型对我国9个湖泊的富营养化程度进行了评价,该方法的评价结果与实际情况基本相符,为湖泊的治理和保护提供了科学依据.     

Surrogates for Macrofungi and Mosses in Reservation Planning

Abstract: Our knowledge of cryptogam taxonomy and species distributions is currently too poor to directly plan for their conservation. We used inventory data from four distinct vegetation types, near Hobart Tasmania, to address the proposition that vegetation type, vascular plant taxon composition, and environmental variables can act as surrogates for mosses and macrofungi in reservation planning. The four vegetation types proved distinct in their taxon composition for all macrofungi, mosses, and vascular plants. We tested the strength of the relationships between the composition of cryptogam taxonomic groups and vascular plant composition and between the environmental variables and canopy cover. Taxon composition of woody vascular plants and vascular plants was the best predictor of the taxon composition of mosses and macrofungi. Combinations of environmental variables and canopy cover were also strong predictors of the taxon composition of mosses and macrofungi. We used an optimization routine for vascular plant taxa and woody plant species and determined the representation of cryptogam taxa in these selections. We identified sites with approximately 10% and 30% of the greatest proportions of vascular plants and woody vascular plants and calculated representation of mosses and macrofungi at these sites. We compared the results of these site selections with random site selections and random selections stratified by vegetation type. Random selection of sites by vegetation type generally captured more cryptogams than site selection by vascular plants at the 10% level. Vascular plant and woody plant taxon composition, vegetation type, and environmental and structural characteristics, all showed promise as surrogates for capturing common cryptogams in reserve systems.     

煤炭自然发火事故树分析及预防

为了有效地控制煤炭自然发火,减少矿井火灾的发生,依据系统工程的原理,结合煤炭自燃的条件建立了煤炭自然发火事故树,求解得出了事故树最小径集,利用最小径集得出了各基本事件的结构重要度,从而定性分别对砌碹巷道煤炭自然发火事故、采空区(报废采区)遗煤自然发火事故、采空区(生产采区)遗煤自然发火事故、报废巷道与停工停风独头巷道煤炭自然发火事故进行了分析,得出了引起煤炭自然发火的主要原因,并针对其提出了防治煤炭自然发火的预防措施。     

Sustainability at the Local Scale: Defining Highly Aggregated Indices for Assessing Environmental Performance. The Province of Reggio Emilia (Italy) as a Case Study

In order to achieve improved sustainability, local authorities need to use tools that adequately describe and synthesize environmental information. This article illustrates a methodological approach that organizes a wide suite of environmental indicators into few aggregated indices, making use of correlation, principal component analysis, and fuzzy sets. Furthermore, a weighting system, which includes stakeholders’ priorities and ambitions, is applied. As a case study, the described methodology is applied to the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy, by considering environmental information from 45 municipalities. Principal component analysis is used to condense an initial set of 19 indicators into 6 fundamental dimensions that highlight patterns of environmental conditions at the provincial scale. These dimensions are further aggregated in two indices of environmental performance through fuzzy sets. The simple form of these indices makes them particularly suitable for public communication, as they condensate a wide set of heterogeneous indicators. The main outcomes of the analysis and the potential applications of the method are discussed.     

土地级别的不确定性

根据Rough集理论，提出了土地级别不确定性模型和精度测度模型，用精度测度表示确定性分类精度和不确定性分类精度，以及分析了土地定级中级别划分的不确定性和不同级别分类质量的变化规律。     

基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测研究

回顾施工项目安全管理和安全管理研究现状,建立建设项目安全管理指标体系。利用人工神经网络非线性函数逼近能力,对项目风险因素程度预测。针对该网络当数据量大时,其结构复杂、收敛慢,易陷入局部最优的缺点,引入粗糙集对影响建设项目安全目标的不确定性因素进行约简,找出最小不确定性风险因素集,大大简化网络输入信息的表达空间维数。并结合粒子群算法收敛速度快、全局最优的寻优能力强的优点,建立基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测系统。通过实例验证该系统的科学性和有效性。     

A FUZZY SETS MODEL FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Mathematical modeling of complex water resources System problems, particularly water pollution control, is aided by fizzy set theory. Public participation in large scale federally funded water resources and pollution control projects is now a federal requirement and practice of various planning agencies. However, no systems based model for quantifying and measuring the effectiveness of public participation is known to exist. In this paper, we report a fuzzy set based model developed for doing this in areawide water resources planning The model is essentially cascade in nature and employs the concepts of fuzzy pessimistic and optimistic aggregations to cluster and analyze the evaluations of the basic factors. Sample computations of the model are provided.