A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

Phreatophytic Vegetation and Groundwater Fluctuations: A Review of Current Research and Application of Ecosystem Response Modeling with an Emphasis on Great Basin Vegetation

Although changes in depth to groundwater occur naturally, anthropogenic alterations may exacerbate these fluctuations and, thus, affect vegetation reliant on groundwater. These effects include changes in physiology, structure, and community dynamics, particularly in arid regions where groundwater can be an important water source for many plants. To properly manage ecosystems subject to changes in depth to groundwater, plant responses to both rising and falling groundwater tables must be understood. However, most research has focused exclusively on riparian ecosystems, ignoring regions where groundwater is available to a wider range of species. Here, we review responses of riparian and other species to changes in groundwater levels in arid environments. Although decreasing water tables often result in plant water stress and reduced live biomass, the converse is not necessarily true for rising water tables. Initially, rising water tables kill flooded roots because most species cannot tolerate the associated low oxygen levels. Thus, flooded plants can also experience water stress. Ultimately, individual species responses to either scenario depend on drought and flooding tolerance and the change in root system size and water uptake capacity. However, additional environmental and biological factors can play important roles in the severity of vegetation response to altered groundwater tables. Using the reviewed information, we created two conceptual models to highlight vegetation dynamics in areas with groundwater fluctuations. These models use flow charts to identify key vegetation and ecosystem properties and their responses to changes in groundwater tables to predict community responses. We then incorporated key concepts from these models into EDYS, a comprehensive ecosystem model, to highlight the potential complexity of predicting community change under different fluctuating groundwater scenarios. Such models provide a valuable tool for managing vegetation and groundwater use in areas where groundwater is important to both plants and humans, particularly in the context of climate change.     

Analysis of macroinvertebrate assemblages in relation to environmental gradients among lotic habitats of California's Central Valley

We assessed relationships between environmental characteristicsand macroinvertebrate assemblages in lotic habitats of California's Central Valley with community metric and multivariate statistical approaches. Using canonical ordinationanalyses, we contrasted results when assemblage structure was assessed with macroinvertebrate metrics, as suggested for use inindices of biotic integrity, or with genera abundances. Our objectives were to identify metrics or taxa diagnostic of loticenvironmental stressors and compare the capacity of theseapproaches to detect stressors in order to suggest how they mightbe used to diagnose stressors. For macroinvertebrate metrics,redundancy analysis (RDA) extracted three axes correlated withchannel morphology and substrates. For genera abundances, canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) extracted two axescorrelated with soluble salts and with channel morphology andsubstrates but did not separate these gradients onto differentaxes. Cluster analyses identified five RDA and five CCA sitegroups, which exhibited differences for environmental variables,metrics, or genera abundances, and agreement between the analysesin partitioning of sites was greater than if sites were partitioned randomly. These approaches differ in their abilityto detect environmental stressors, because they measure differentaspects of assemblages and would be complementary in design ofnew metrics diagnostic of stressors.     

Understanding the Ecology of Blue Elderberry to Inform Landscape Restoration in Semiarid River Corridors

Societal constraints often limit full process restoration in large river systems, making local rehabilitation activities valuable for regeneration of riparian vegetation. A target of much mitigation and restoration is the federally threatened Valley elderberry longhorn beetle and its sole host plant, blue elderberry, in upper riparian floodplain environments. However, blue elderberry ecology is not well understood and restoration attempts typically have low success rates. We determined broad-scale habitat characteristics of elderberry in altered systems and examined associated plant species composition in remnant habitat. We quantified vegetation community composition in 139 remnant riparian forest patches along the Sacramento River and elderberry stem diameters along this and four adjacent rivers. The greatest proportion of plots containing elderberry was located on higher and older floodplain surfaces and in riparian woodlands dominated by black walnut. Blue elderberry saplings and shrubs with stems <5.0 cm in diameter were rare, suggesting a lack of recruitment. A complex suite of vegetation was associated with blue elderberry, including several invasive species which are potentially outcompeting seedlings for light, water, or other resources. Such lack of recruitment places increased importance on horticultural restoration for the survival of an imperiled species. These findings further indicate a need to ascertain whether intervention is necessary to maintain functional and diverse riparian woodlands, and a need to monitor vegetative species composition over time, especially in relation to flow regulation.     

伊犁河谷生态旅游形象定位及产品设计

生态旅游资源是生态旅游开发的基础,但拥有旅游资源并不等于就拥有旅游产品,旅游资源要成为旅游产品,还必须根据市场需求进行形象设计、加工和再创造。伊犁河谷具有得天独厚的生态环境和世所罕见的生物多样性特征,是开发生态旅游产品、发展生态旅游的理想之地。以伊犁河谷生态旅游源为基础,塑造伊犁河谷生态旅游形象,设计开发特色生态旅游产品。     

长江流域自然灾害若干问题探讨

长江流域是我国重要产业带,又是我国自然灾害严重区域。水灾和旱灾已成为流域常发广布灾害,年均受灾和成灾面积约占全国总受灾和成灾面积的百分之四十。流域内旱灾成灾面积大于水灾面积。常发灾害与突发重大灾害给流域社会经济造成严重危害。灾害是环境质量的一个函数。长江流域灾害的发生和发展与人类活动引起的环境退化有密切关系。对流域进行综合整治已成为迫切任务。     

略论建设长江经济带

强调指出长江沿岸地区是我国本世纪末或更长时期内重点开发的地区之一,论述了建设长江经济带的必要性和长江流域的资源秉赋,提出了建设长江经济带的基本构想以及应采取的战略措施。     

"耕读文化"的旅游开发利用研究——以浙江楠溪江流域古村落为例

浙江永嘉县楠溪江流域是典型的“耕读文化”分布区,具有巨大的旅游开发价值,但目前流域内旅游开发力度不够、开发方式单一、开发效益较低。其中有管理体制问题、资金问题和如何协调开发与保护关系问题,但最核心的问题是没有找到将地方旅游资源转换为具体旅游项目或旅游产品较好的方式,特别是由于“耕读文化”的抽象性、隐含性及具体存在形式的零散性,开发时比其它旅游资源的难度更大。基于楠溪江旅游开发这一核心问题,从旅游项目策划、产品开发角度探讨了楠溪江“耕读文化”的旅游开发。     

乡村旅游发展探讨——以湖北百宝寨为例

乡村旅游是我国旅游业的重要组成部分，肩负着以旅助农、以城带乡的重任。湖北省百宝寨拥有良好的山水风光和乡土特色。分析了百宝寨发展乡村旅游的实例，总结出成功的主要原因，并在此基础上提出了促进乡村旅游可持续发展的建议。     

近10年来长江下游地区耕地动态变化特征

基于遥感资料和GIS分析,对1988～1998年长江下游地区耕地与其他土地利用类型之间相互转变数量特征,以及耕地变化强度、耕地流失强度的区域分异特征进行了分析和描述,对耕地变化导致的环境效应进行了初步探讨。研究结果表明:①1988～1998年,耕地与林地、灌丛、水体之间的转变,对其数量动态变化起着主要作用,在上述转变过程中,耕地总体表现出数量明显减少、质量降低的趋势;②农田向城镇的单向转移,体现了区域快速城市化对耕地的侵占过程,从空间分布看,该过程主要体现于上海、苏锡常地区、南京、杭州等城市化过程最为剧烈的地区;③长江下游地区1988～1998年耕地年均流失率为0.77%,流失的主体部分是位于长江三角洲和巢湖平原自然条件优越、水利灌溉配套设施完善的传统优质耕地,新形成的部分则主要来自于滩涂湿地开垦及低山丘陵地区毁林开荒。总体而言,长江下游地区耕地流失体现在数量锐减、质量下降两个方面,并伴随着一系列生态破坏问题的出现。