森林火灾地面扑救的最佳路线的计算

建立了森林火灾地面扑救方式(直接扑救、间接扑救和平行扑救)的最佳扑救路线的数学模型,设计了模型的计算机数值求解算法。给出了匀速扩张的椭圆形火场的一个算例,从其计算结果中导出的一些实用的结论与以往用解析方法得到的结论是一致的,以此初步验证了模型的有效性。     

模块化火灾综合评估系统

火灾的综合评估,由于火灾过程的复杂性和人类干预的介入而变得比较困难,本文充分注意到火灾发展的不同阶段和不同过程,以及人类干预的不同侧重点,将火灾综合评估系统分解成五个既相互独立,又相互关系的评估模块,并对这些模块的结构进行了初步的探讨,火灾综合评估系统的模块化设计,有利于不同评估方法的独立发展和火灾综合评估工作的灵活操作。     

大兴安岭林区地下火形成火环境研究

地下火作为森林中一种难以控制的燃烧现象,其形成机理极为复杂。我国大兴安岭林区是森林地下火的多发地区。对该地区2002年发生的地下火研究表明：丰富的近土壤层和地下可燃物是森林地下火发生的物质条件,气象条件促进了森林地下火的发生,特别是在遇到降水少、长期干旱、地面温度增加、相对湿度降低和可燃物干燥的情况下,就很容易引起地下火灾。地下火有地理和时间分布特征。地表火主要发生在原始森林区域,如针叶林、阔叶林或针阔混交林,都有可能发生地下火。地下火一般燃烧速度慢,持续时间长,燃烧充分,具有隐蔽性强、燃烧不连续、方向易变等特点,地下火在所有火灾中对森林危害最大,特别是对落叶松、樟子松、云杉等的破坏更为严重。     

It’s All in the Numbers: Acreage Tallies and Environmental Program Evaluation

Increasingly, performance measurement is being used to hold federal agencies accountable, represent environmental progress, and evaluate the effectiveness of environmental programs. The need to track measurable outputs has created a tendency to present programmatic progress solely by quantifiable data, despite the inherent complexity of natural resource management. Wetlands and fire management programs are two specific environmental arenas that have come to overemphasize the tracking of acreage numbers to validate existing policy direction. In both of these arenas, we find the definition and categorization of "countable" acres to be inconsistent and unreliable. We explore this systemic flaw for both wetlands and fire programs and describe its implications for environmental policy and natural resource management more broadly. We conclude with recommendations for improved performance measurement in these arenas.     

高森林火险天气形势及其前期气候特征与预报

利用1980-2006年27年间黑龙江省林区发生的37次特大森林火灾资料,针对高空500hPa温压场的结构,将着火前3天短期时段内的天气形势分为4类8型,在此基础上对相对湿度与气温等因子的变化进行了分析,并对高火险日数及前期气候与大气环流特征进行了预报.     

FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性评估研究

浮式储存和再气化装置（FSRU）运行过程中易导致火灾爆炸等事故的发生,为有效评估FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,采用火灾爆炸危险指数评估法,对运用FSRU的某浮式LNG接收终端进行危险性评估;选取LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等9个单元,研究确定了一般工艺危险性系数、特殊工艺危险性系数、安全措施补偿系数等参数,得出了补偿前后的火灾爆炸危险性指数,有效评估了FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,并基于研究结果提出了保障FSRU作业安全的对策措施与建议。研究结果表明,安全措施补偿前,缘于LNG/NG本身的火灾危险性和数量较大,能量高度集中,LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等单元的火灾爆炸危险等级均达到了“非常大”;在采取了一系列的安全措施补偿后,火灾爆炸危险指数降低了3/5左右。这对系统深入地研究FSRU作业安全具有较重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

煤田火区塌陷区渗透系数分布研究

通过分析煤田火区地表下沉量和破碎岩块孔隙率的关系,对地表下沉量进行测量,分析计算得到火区破碎岩块孔隙率的分布方程。在实验室中测量不同孔隙率破碎岩块的渗透系数,拟合建立渗透系数和孔隙率的关系方程,利用求得的关系方程和通过地表下沉量测量法得到的孔隙率分布方程,求得煤田火区塌陷区破碎岩块的渗透系数分布方程。     

混凝土简支梁设计基准期内的可靠度

根据统计资料对不同类型建筑在不同防火措施下发生火灾的概率研究,得出了各类建筑达到轰燃的概率.基于蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法,引入材料高温本构关系、截面尺寸和计算模型系数等的变异性,按照ISO标准升温曲线升温,给出了单构件轰燃下的失效概率计算方法.最后,将设计基准期内建筑物达到轰燃的概率与单构件轰燃下的失效概率组合,给出了设计基准期内建筑构件在火灾下的失效概率公式.     

Climatic Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

Abstract:  Climatic variability is a dominant factor affecting large wildfires in the western United States, an observation supported by palaeoecological data on charcoal in lake sediments and reconstructions from fire-scarred trees. Although current fire management focuses on fuel reductions to bring fuel loadings back to their historical ranges, at the regional scale extreme fire weather is still the dominant influence on area burned and fire severity. Current forecasting tools are limited to short-term predictions of fire weather, but increased understanding of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) may improve our ability to predict climatic variability at seasonal to annual leads. Associations between these quasi-periodic patterns and fire occurrence, though evident in some regions, have been difficult to establish in others. Increased temperature in the future will likely extend fire seasons throughout the western United States, with more fires occurring earlier and later than is currently typical, and will increase the total area burned in some regions. If climatic change increases the amplitude and duration of extreme fire weather, we can expect significant changes in the distribution and abundance of dominant plant species in some ecosystems, which would thus affect habitat of some sensitive plant and animal species. Some species that are sensitive to fire may decline, whereas the distribution and abundance of species favored by fire may be enhanced. The effects of climatic change will partially depend on the extent to which resource management modifies vegetation structure and fuels.