军用环境试验的发展和趋势

本文回顾了国内外自然环境试验和人工模拟环境试验现状，展望了两种试验技术的发展趋势。指出：自然环境试验与人工模拟加速试验相辅相成，环境试验与可靠性试验互为补充，建成有中国特色的环境试验标准化体系、网站体系、技术体系和服务体系是我国环境试验技术的发展方向。     

水中砷快速检测方法研究

采用实验室与现场相结合的方法对砷快速测定方法的可靠性和应用价值进行研究。研究显示,该法检出限为2μg/L,具有较好的准确度,对于砷质量浓度5μg/L的水样,相对误差为1.00%~10.00%,对于砷质量浓度为5μg/L的水样,虽然相对误差较大,为22.40%,但其测定结果在砷污染快速监测可接受的结果范围内;精密度较高,相对标准差为5.27%~16.54%;同时具有较好的再现性。该方法能减少砷污染筛查的工作量,可满足应对砷污染突发事件应急监测的需求。     

In-depth approach for identifying crash causation patterns and its implications for pedestrian crash prevention

IntroductionA pedestrian crash occurs due to a series of contributing factors taking effect in an antecedent-consequent order. One specific type of antecedent-consequent order is called a crash causation pattern. Understanding crash causation patterns is important for clarifying the complicated growth of a pedestrian crash, which ultimately helps recommend corresponding countermeasures. However, previous studies lack an in-depth investigation of pedestrian crash cases, and are insufficient to propose a representative picture of causation patterns. Method: In this study, pedestrian crash causation patterns were discerned by using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM). One hundred and forty-two pedestrian crashes were investigated, and five pedestrian pre-crash scenarios were extracted. Then, the crash causation patterns in each pre-crash scenario were analyzed; and finally, six distinct patterns were identified. Accordingly, 17 typical situations corresponding to these causation patterns were specified as well. Results: Among these patterns, the pattern related to distracted driving and the pattern related to an unexpected change of pedestrian trajectory contributed to a large portion of the total crashes (i.e., 27% and 24%, respectively). Other patterns also played an important role in inducing a pedestrian crash; these patterns include the pattern related to an obstructed line of sight caused by outside objects (9%), the pattern that involves reduced visibility (13%), and the pattern related to an improper estimation of the gap distance between the vehicle and the pedestrian (10%). The results further demonstrated the inter-heterogeneity of a crash causation pattern, as well as the intra-heterogeneity of pattern features between different pedestrian pre-crash scenarios. Conclusions and practical applications: Essentially, a crash causation pattern might involve different contributing factors by nature or dependent on specific scenarios. Finally, this study proposed suggestions for roadway facility design, roadway safety education and pedestrian crash prevention system development.     

The successes and challenges of implementing high reliability principles: A case study of a UK oil refinery

Research conducted on organisations that are able to sustain excellent safety records over long time periods suggests that there are a number of practices that organisations can adopt to achieve high levels of reliability and safety. These practices are often discussed in the context of major incidents to highlight the safety standards that high hazard organisations should try to emulate. However, previous research has predominantly focused on non-profit organisations, and comparatively little research has examined whether high reliability practices may be meaningfully applied to commercial contexts. This paper addresses this gap by using a qualitative approach to explore the types of reliability-enhancing practices implemented in a UK-based oil refinery in its attempt to achieve its ethos of ‘safe and reliable operations’. The findings illustrate the successful application of reliability-enhancing practices in several domains, including: hazard identification and control; emergency preparedness and collection; and analysis of incidents and near misses. Management commitment to safety emerged as an important factor underpinning the successful implementation of reliability-enhancing practices, highlighting its potential significance in the context of commercial organisations. However, promoting an open reporting culture and maintaining high levels of management visibility may be some of the challenges encountered by organisations striving to implement reliability-enhancing practices.     

A new approach to quantitative assessment of reliability of passive systems

The objective of this paper is to show how probabilistic reliability can be assessed for complex systems in the absence of statistical data on their operating experience, based on performance evaluation of the dominant underlying physical processes. The approach is to distinguish between functional and performance probabilities when dealing with the quantification of the overall probability of a system to perform a given function in a given period of time (reliability). In the case of systems where sufficient statistical operating experience data are available, one can focus the quantitative evaluation entirely on the assessment of the functional probability for a given active item (e.g. a pump) by assuming that the specification, layout, construction and installation is such that the item is providing the assigned performance, e.g. in the form of generating the required flow rate. This is how traditional probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) focus the reliability analysis for the various safety features on the calculation of values for the availability per demand. In contrast, for various systems relevant in advanced technical applications, such as passive safety features in innovative reactor designs, it is essential to evaluate both functional and performance probabilities explicitly and combine the two probabilities later on. This is of course due to the strong reliance of passive safety systems on inherent physical principles. In practice, this means that, for example, in case of a passive cooling system based on natural circulation of a given medium, one has to evaluate and to assess the probability to have a medium condition and a flow rate such that a cladding temperature, represented by a probability distribution, can be hold at a required level. A practical example of this method is given for the case of the reliability assessment of a residual passive heat removal system. General conclusions are drawn regarding reliability estimation of complex, interconnected systems in the absence of statistical performance data, such as for infrastructures.     

核电站重要敏感性设备分析

核电站重要敏感性设备管理是国内首次采用归纳法和演绎法对核电站重要敏感系统和设备进行识别和设备分级的一种新方法。目标是为了找到导致反应堆紧急停堆、强迫停机和非计划跳机跳堆风险的主要部件 ,并采用 80 - 2 0的原理进行有效的管理 ,建立有效的风险管理 (预防、探测、改正行动 PDC ,Prevention/Detec tion/Correction)大纲和PDC管理数据库 ,并对大部分的重要敏感设备的子部件进行的FMEA(FailureModeandEffectAnalysis)分析 ,识别其失效机理 ,从而确定重要敏感设备清单和预防跳机跳堆的改正行动 ,减少未来由于设备失效导致的跳堆次数 ,达到提高核电站的设备可靠性、安全性和经济性的目的。     

铁路编组站劳动安全联防联控可靠性模型及应用研究

从个人和群体的可靠性出发，建立了铁路编组站劳动安全联防联控的可靠性模型，论证了联防联控的可行性，提出了实施重点及对策。     

Measurement and Meaning in Environmental Communication Studies: A Response to Kassing,Johnson, Kloeber,and Wentzel

This essay represents an invited editorial response to Kassing, Johnson, Kloeber, and Wentzel's “Development and Validation of the Environmental Communication Scale” in Environmental Communication: A Journal of Nature and Culture. Kassing and his associates use an apt review of the status of the environmental communication field as the basis for developing a protocol and instrument to measure the actual practice of engaging environmental subject matter in daily life. Although their factor analytic work is laudable in its intent, their approach to empirically exploring environmental communication in action further institutionalizes a number of conceptual and methodological shortcomings in our discipline. In particular, what researchers and respondents think constitutes “environmental” content per se poses a significant barrier to using the proposed tool in applied settings. After critiquing the Kassing et al. work in terms of a number of issues related to the validity and reliability of their research, I conclude by suggesting that the research may provide a needed springboard for exploring the dynamics of interpersonal settings that mediate important dialog and action regarding the environment.     

基于RS-ANN的通风系统可靠性预警系统

系统可靠性预警是度量系统运行状态偏离可靠性指标界线的强弱程度,确定预警等级和做出决策警示的过程。笔者在对目前国内外有关系统预警方法的分析比较基础上,针对矿井通风系统可靠性运行的实际状况,应用了粗糙集(RS)理论和神经网络(ANN)技术,提出了一种基于粗糙集神经网络(RSANN)的矿井通风系统可靠性预警方法:首先,建立了一套适合于矿井通风系统可靠性的预警指标体系;然后,利用人工神经网络与粗糙集理论的优势互补,以粗糙集作为前置处理系统优化指标结构,构建了基于RSANN的通风系统可靠性预警仿真模型,并应用该模型进行了实例验证。其结果表明,该模型的仿真结论与基于ANN的结论十分吻合,训练效率提高了667倍。     

煤巷锚杆支护结构的可靠性分析

根据煤巷围岩力学参数中有许多随机变量的特征 ,笔者应用工程结构可靠性理论 ,提出并建立了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析模型 ,得到了其可靠度的计算公式 ,提出了提高支护结构可靠度的措施 ,为优化煤巷锚杆支护参数提供了一种新方法。这些研究成果对指导煤巷支护设计 ,减少支护失效事故 ,保证矿井正常安全生产具有重要的意义。