化工设备重要度的模糊聚类分析

在层次分析和模糊集理论的基础上，建立了化工设备重要度的模糊层次分析模型，应用判断矩阵分级求出各指标因素对子层次和目标层次的权重。根据模糊数学中的广义加权海明距离，对化工设备重要度进行了模糊聚类分析，得到了符合实际的分类结果。     

Explosion prevention and weighting analysis on the inerting effect of methane via grey entropy model

Explosion prevention is vital for process safety and daily life. In practice, inerting is viewed as an ideal method to reach basic explosion prevention as well as to diminish flammability risk in normal operation, storage, and transportation of materials. This study deals with the inerting effect on the explosion range for methane via grey entropy model, comparatively detected under the different inert gases of nitrogen (N₂), argon (Ar), and carbon dioxide (CO₂), which have various loading inerting concentrations: 10 (90 vol% air), 20 (80 vol% air) and 25 vol% (75 vol% air). The inert influences were determined via the experimental 20-L-apparatus investigations under 1 atm, 30 ^OC, combined with the grey entropy model, which is one of the most prevailingly used grey system theories for weighting analysis and decision-making of the fire and explosion assessment for practical operations. The results indicated that CO₂ had better inerting capacity than the others, as derived from our grey entropy theoretical soft computing calculations. Through the combination of the grey entropy weighting analysis model and the flammability investigations in this study, the concluded decision-making was feasible and useful for the practical applications of inert gases for preventing fire and explosion hazards in relevant processes.     

Reliability assessment of ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulations

Ultra-deep oil and gas wells have become a new development trend in onshore oil and gas exploitation. However, Ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing is with high failure risk due to the harsh environment. It is essential to evaluate the reliability of wellbore casing. This paper assesses the operational reliability of wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulation. Firstly, the theoretical model for reliability analysis of wellbore casing is established, and the variables in the model are determined, including rock mechanics, cement ring, and casing string strength factors. Subsequently, considering the random distribution of model variables, many statistics and analyses are performed to determine the distribution parameters of the model variables. Eventually, Monte Carlo based numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the residual strength distribution and the reliability of wellbore casing. The production casing in the ultra-deep well with a depth of 6.5 km in China as an industrial case is used to illustrate the present study. It is observed that this study can be useful to guide a more accurate assessment of the reliability of ultra-deep wellbore casing.     

Uncertainty analysis framework for tubular connection sealability of underground gas storage wells

The seal failure of tubing and casing connections compromises underground gas storage well safety. This work proposes a systematic uncertainty analysis framework for connection sealability assessment. The framework covers reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis and attempts to provide more effective support for the reliability design of connection seals. The reliability analysis introduces an adaptive Kriging with stopping criterion P-Monte Carlo simulation (AKP-MCS) method, which can provide a satisfactory estimate of failure probability with a small number of performance function evaluations. This metamodeling technology can effectively reduce the numerical efforts required for the reliability assessment of connection sealability. In the reliability sensitivity analysis, the refined metamodel obtained from the reliability analysis is coupled into a single-loop Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The classifier attribute of this metamodel can meet the requirement of the single-loop MCS method to classify the signs of sampling points. This attribute enables sample matrices to be evaluated on this metamodel instead of the performance function, making the reliability sensitivity assessment more feasible. The proposed method is first demonstrated with four academic examples with promising results. Next, an illustrative tubular connection case is provided. The proposed scheme gives estimates of the failure probability and reliability sensitivity close to the classical model but requires less computational cost. The results of the analysis can provide useful information for the scheme decision-making and reliability optimization of connection seal design.     

Bird song as a signal of aggressive intent

A central question in animal communication research concerns the reliability of animal signals. The question is particularly relevant to aggressive communication, where there often may be advantages to signaling an exaggerated likelihood of attack. We tested whether aggressive signals are indeed reliable signals of attack in song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). We elicited aggressive signaling using a 1-min playback on a male’s territory, recorded the behavior of the male for 5 min, and then gave him the opportunity to attack a taxidermic mount of a song sparrow associated with further playback. Twenty subjects attacked the mount and 75 did not. Distance to the speaker was a significant predictor of attack for both the initial recording period and the 1 min before attack. For the initial recording period, none of the measures of singing behavior that we made was a significant predictor of attack, including song-type matching, type-switching frequency, and song rate. For the 1-min period immediately before attack, only the number of low amplitude “soft songs” was a significant predictor of attack. Although most aggressive signals contained little information on attack likelihood, as some models suggest should be the case, the unreliability of these signals was not caused by convergence of individuals on a single signaling strategy, as those models argue should occur.     

一种新的数据融合方法

提出了一种新的数据融合方法,可以综合利用来自多个传感器的数据,评估所检测目标的漏检概率,与国际上常用的方法相比,其评估结果具有更高的精度,而且便于工程应用     

煤巷锚杆支护结构的可靠性分析

根据煤巷围岩力学参数中有许多随机变量的特征 ,笔者应用工程结构可靠性理论 ,提出并建立了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析模型 ,得到了其可靠度的计算公式 ,提出了提高支护结构可靠度的措施 ,为优化煤巷锚杆支护参数提供了一种新方法。这些研究成果对指导煤巷支护设计 ,减少支护失效事故 ,保证矿井正常安全生产具有重要的意义。     

压力容器的可靠性分析

应用概率断裂力学的观点,讨论了压力容器各有关参数的分布特点及允许的失效概率,分析了材料韧性为两种不同分布时压力容器可靠性计算方法,说明了进行压力容器失效概率分析是全面评价压力容器的方法之一.     

如何提高大型游乐设施设备本质安全

大型游乐设施事故主要是由于人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致的,目前部分设计制造单位对游乐设施危险源识别不充分,风险分析不到位,防控措施流于形式,不能从设计制造阶段彻底消除不安全因素,希望使用单位的规范管理来规避风险,这不能从根本上控制风险,游客和作业人员的不安全行为必须通过设备本体的安全功能来约束和控制.本文结合标准...     

Reporting and evaluation criteria as means towards a transparent use of ecotoxicity data for environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals

Ecotoxicity data with high reliability and relevance are needed to guarantee the scientific quality of environmental risk assessments of pharmaceuticals. The main advantages of a more structured approach to data evaluation include increased transparency and predictability of the risk assessment process, and the possibility to use non-standard data.In this collaboration, between the research project MistraPharma and the German Federal Environment Agency, a new set of reporting and evaluation criteria is presented and discussed. The new criteria are based on the approaches in the literature and the OECD reporting requirements, and have been further developed to include both reliability and relevance of test data.Intended users are risk assessors and researchers performing ecotoxicological experiments, but the criteria can also be used for education purposes and in the peer-review process for scientific papers. This approach intends to bridge the gap between the regulator and the scientist’s needs and way of work.