Assisting Australian indigenous resource management and sustainable utilization of species through the use of GIS and environmental modeling techniques

Information on distribution and relative abundance of species is integral to sustainable management, especially if they are to be harvested for subsistence or commerce. In northern Australia, natural landscapes are vast, centers of population few, access is difficult, and Aboriginal resource centers and communities have limited funds and infrastructure. Consequently defining distribution and relative abundance by comprehensive ground survey is difficult and expensive. This highlights the need for simple, cheap, automated methodologies to predict the distribution of species in use, or having potential for use, in commercial enterprise. The technique applied here uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to make predictions of probability of occurrence using an inductive modeling technique based on Bayes' theorem. The study area is in the Maningrida region, central Arnhem Land, in the Northern Territory, Australia. The species examined, Cycas arnhemica and Brachychiton diversifolius, are currently being 'wild harvested' in commercial trials, involving sale of decorative plants and use as carving wood, respectively. This study involved limited and relatively simple ground surveys requiring approximately 7 days of effort for each species. The overall model performance was evaluated using Cohen's kappa statistics. The predictive ability of the model for C. arnhemica was classified as moderate and for B. diversifolius as fair. The difference in model performance can be attributed to the pattern of distribution of these species. C. arnhemica tends to occur in a clumped distribution due to relatively short distance dispersal of its large seeds and vegetative growth from long-lived rhizomes, while B. diversifolius seeds are smaller and more widely dispersed across the landscape. The output from analysis predicts trends in species distribution that are consistent with independent on-site sampling for each species and therefore should prove useful in gauging the extent of resource availability. However, some caution needs to be applied as the models tend to over predict presence which is a function of distribution patterns and of other variables operating in the landscape such as fire histories which were not included in the model due to limited availability of data.     

Comparison of models of simazine transport and fate in the subsurface environment in a citrus farm

Contamination of groundwater by agrochemicals is now widely recognized as an extremely important environmental problem. Modern agricultural practices involve the combined use of irrigation with the application of large amounts of agrochemicals to maximize crop yield. Due to flood irrigation and natural runoff, agricultural activities might generate soil, surface water and groundwater contamination problems and leaching of pesticides. Modeling of the transport and fate of pesticides, such as simazine, may help understand the long-term potential risk to the subsurface environment. This paper illustrates a comparative study via the use of three different pesticide transport simulation models and the applicability of those models in determining the groundwater vulnerability to pesticides contamination in a citrus orchard located at the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV). The three models used in the study are the pesticide root zone model-3 (PRZM-3), the pesticide analytical model (PESTAN) and integrated pesticide transport modeling (IPTM). The concentration values obtained from all three models are in agreement, and they show a decreasing trend from the surface through the vadose zone. The problem is how to use this information and, specifically, how to combine the testimony of a number of experts into a single useful judgment. With the aid of the fuzzy multiattribute decision making method, PRZM-3 is deemed as the most promising one for such precision farming applications.     

Evaluation of geometrically personalized THUMS pedestrian model response against sedan–pedestrian PMHS impact test data

Objective: Evaluating the biofidelity of pedestrian finite element models (PFEM) using postmortem human subjects (PMHS) is a challenge because differences in anthropometry between PMHS and PFEM could limit a model's capability to accurately capture cadaveric responses. Geometrical personalization via morphing can modify the PFEM geometry to match the specific PMHS anthropometry, which could alleviate this issue. In this study, the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS) PFEM (Ver 4.01) was compared to the cadaveric response in vehicle–pedestrian impacts using geometrically personalized models.

Methods: The AM50 THUMS PFEM was used as the baseline model, and 2 morphed PFEM were created to the anthropometric specifications of 2 obese PMHS used in a previous pedestrian impact study with a mid-size sedan. The same measurements as those obtained during the PMHS tests were calculated from the simulations (kinematics, accelerations, strains), and biofidelity metrics based on signals correlation (correlation and analysis, CORA) were established to compare the response of the models to the experiments. Injury outcomes were predicted deterministically (through strain-based threshold) and probabilistically (with injury risk functions) and compared with the injuries reported in the necropsy.

Results: The baseline model could not accurately capture all aspects of the PMHS kinematics, strain, and injury risks, whereas the morphed models reproduced biofidelic response in terms of trajectory (CORA score = 0.927 ± 0.092), velocities (0.975 ± 0.027), accelerations (0.862 ± 0.072), and strains (0.707 ± 0.143). The personalized THUMS models also generally predicted injuries consistent with those identified during posttest autopsy.

Conclusions: The study highlights the need to control for pedestrian anthropometry when validating pedestrian human body models against PMHS data. The information provided in the current study could be useful for improving model biofidelity for vehicle–pedestrian impact scenarios.     

Perceived mastery climate,felt trust,and knowledge sharing

Interpersonal trust is associated with a range of adaptive outcomes, including knowledge sharing. However, to date, our knowledge of antecedents and consequences of employees feeling trusted by supervisors in organizations remains limited. On the basis of a multisource, multiwave field study among 956 employees from 5 Norwegian organizations, we examined the predictive roles of perceived mastery climate and employee felt trust for employees' knowledge sharing. Drawing on the achievement goal theory, we develop and test a model to demonstrate that when employees perceive a mastery climate, they are more likely to feel trusted by their supervisors at both the individual and group levels. Moreover, the relationship between employees' perceptions of a mastery climate and supervisor‐rated knowledge sharing is mediated by perceptions of being trusted by the supervisor. Theoretical contributions and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

Planning rural water services in Nicaragua: A systems-based analysis of impact factors using graphical modeling

The success or failure of rural water services in the developing world is a result of numerous factors that interact in a complex set of connections that are difficult to separate and identify. This research effort presented a novel means to empirically reveal the systemic interactions of factors that influence rural water service sustainability in the municipalities of Darío and Terrabona, Nicaragua. To accomplish this, the study employed graphical modeling to build and analyze factor networks. Influential factors were first identified by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing transcribed interviews from community water committee members. Factor influences were then inferred by graphical modeling to create factor network diagrams that revealed the direct and indirect interaction of factors. Finally, network analysis measures were used to identify “impact factors” based on their relative influence within each factor network. Findings from this study elucidated the systematic nature of such factor interactions in both Darío and Terrabona, and highlighted key areas for programmatic impact on water service sustainability for both municipalities. Specifically, in Darío, the impact areas related to the current importance of water service management by community water committees, while in Terrabona, the impact areas related to the current importance of finances, viable water sources, and community capacity building by external support. Overall, this study presents a rigorous and useful means to identify impact factors as a way to facilitate the thoughtful planning and evaluation of sustainable rural water services in Nicaragua and beyond.     

水环境承载力方法研究

文章给出水环境承载力概念,以及对现有的水环境承载力研究方法进行分析,提出基于水量水质相关法的水环境承载力计算模型,并对其进行实证研究。结果表明,将水量水质相关法应用于水环境承载力的研究,具有建模方便、直观简单的特点,为水环境承载力研究提供了一种新途径。     

基于环境“一张图”的环境网格化管理平台建设思路探讨——以长吉产业创新发展示范区为例

阐述了网格和网格化的发展,总结典型城市环境网格化管理实践经验,提出环境网格化管理思路。根据环境总体规划中环境空间管控要求,将环境"一张图"与环境网格化管理相结合,提出建立"行政网格+标准公里网格"的环境网格化管理平台。以长吉产业创新发展示范区为例,通过建立层次分析法模型,实现水、大气、生态等环境要素"一张图"管控,识别网格保护优先等级,为下一步环境网格化平台建设提供技术支持。     

重金属铜在砂质壤土土柱中运移的数值模拟

通过室内土柱出流实验,分析了重金属离子铜在饱和砂质壤土中的运移行为,发现高浓度的入流液有利于铜离子的运移。同时借助于软件包CXTFIT,用确定性平衡模型和非平衡两区模型对铜离子的出流动态进行了拟合,并预测了土柱不同深度处铜离子浓度随时间的变化过程。结果表明,室内饱和均质条件下,应用确定性平衡模型拟合参数模拟精度要高于非平衡两区模型,可以不用考虑不动水体对铜离子运移的影响。     

数字经济、人才流动与长三角地区高质量发展

数字经济技术在产业转型和经济高质量发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色。基于2011—2018年长三角“三省一市”共41个城市数据,测度了长三角地区数字经济和高质量发展的综合水平,分析数字经济对长三角地区高质量发展的影响,创新性地构造了人才流动不平衡指标,并探讨区域内人才流动不平衡对二者关系的调节效应。研究发现：长三角地区高质量发展水平和数字经济规模逐年上升。数字经济发展通过提升生产效率、流通效率和社会便利促进长三角地区高质量发展,非核心区域的正影响强度大于核心区域。人才流动不平衡会逆向调节数字经济对长三角地区高质量发展的正影响程度,但这一调节效应存在区域异质性。此外数字经济对长三角地区高质量发展存在经济距离为权重矩阵的空间负向溢出效应。     

地下水环境影响评价中污染物运移模拟软件的适宜性评估

目前国内外已发展了一系列成熟的地下水污染物运移模拟软件,但是软件功能各异,易造成使用者的选择困扰.为满足HJ 610—2016《环境影响评价技术导则地下水环境》（简称“《导则》”）中关于环境影响预测工作精细化的要求,对国内外常用饱和带和包气带污染物运移模拟软件的适宜性进行了评估.首先,针对三款常用饱和带污染物运移模拟软件BIOSCREEN、AT123D和MT3D,基于理想算例对比4组水动力条件设置下的计算结果,分析软件的适宜性;其次,针对《导则》中暂未给出的包气带污染物运移模拟软件,以FEMWATER为例探讨了包气带阻滞作用对于地下水环境影响评价的重要性.结果表明:①BIOSCREEN由于忽略了分子扩散作用,当Pe（Peclet数）为0.25×10-3时,其预测的污染源下游10 m处污染物浓度为AT123D和MT3D计算值的1.8倍,存在高估污染风险的可能.②相比污染源直接设置于潜水面的情景,污染物从距潜水面11 m的地表泄露,经过包气带后污染源强降低了24%,下游85 m处污染物浓度达到0.1 mg/L的时间延迟了390 d.③当地下水流速较慢,分子扩散作用相比对流作用占优势时,适用MT3D开展数值模拟或者采用AT123D进行解析预测;当对流作用占优势且水文地质条件接近解析解假设时,可利用BIOSCREEN粗估污染风险.研究显示,包气带污染物运移模拟软件有助于合理地预测污染物在地下水环境中的运移转化行为,从而更准确地估计污染源强和判定地下水环境污染风险.