Cooperative Solutions for Sustainable Resource Management

n -person game theory are most appropriate for these problems because they focus on the conditions for engendering and sustaining the necessary cooperation among the involved stakeholders. These solution concepts seek to ensure that the allocation is based on some norm of equity and, most often, also to minimize the incentive for any player to defect from the cooperative venture. We illustrate these solution concepts with an application to a water resource project in Southern California. We argue how the rigorous mathematical nature of these solution concepts should not hinder their application to actual situations and how, with the use of heuristic rules and inexact notions of comparable worths, we can employ these concepts even in approximate fashion. We remind ourselves that the goal of such an endeavor is to convince stakeholders of the equity of a proposed solution and, in so doing, maximize the prospect of sustained cooperation. The alternative to cooperation, on the other hand, may be endless stalemate.     

车装焊复合加工装备的服役可靠性评估

目的评估某型航天用车装焊复合加工装备在服役过程中的服役可靠性。方法首先分析装备常见的故障模式,统计装备在使用过程中的故障数据,由于装备故障数据样本量较少,所以提出基于贝叶斯理论的小样本车装焊复合加工装备可靠性评估方法,其中通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)法抽样解决贝叶斯理论中后验积分复杂的问题。结果确定了车装焊复合加工装备的寿命威布尔分布模型,并运用贝叶斯方法,计算出该车装焊复合加工装备的平均无故障工作时间(MTBF)。结论评估结果略低于设计要求,原因是目前该装备处于服役初期,服役初期故障数据较多。待进入稳定服役期时,故障率会有一定程度的降低后趋于稳定,MTBF会有一定幅度的增加,所以该车装焊复合加工装备MTBF基本满足设计要求。     

Mating system evolution in response to search costs in the speckled wood butterfly, Pararge aegeria

A general and intuitive prediction from models of mate preference is that when the cost of searching for mates increases, individuals should become less choosy. Here, we test this prediction by comparing the mating propensity of females in two populations of the butterfly Pararge aegeria. The populations originated from southern Sweden and Madeira and due to different adult emergence patterns throughout the year, the average density of males per female is likely to be lower on Madeira. Therefore, we expected that the cost of searching should be greater on Madeira and, consequently, that the Madeiran females should be less choosy. In line with predictions, the Madeiran females mated significantly sooner after the first interaction with males than did females from southern Sweden. This difference may reflect a weaker preference for territorial males over non-territorial patrollers in the Madeiran population, because of the greater costs of searching. The Madeiran females also showed a shorter time lag between mating and the start of oviposition. We discuss this unexpected result and propose that the same mechanism could also explain this population difference, i.e. different costs of searching for suitable host plants. Both search processes are fundamental for female reproductive success and we find it plausible that they can be generalised into the same theory of optimal search behaviour. Received: 14 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 13 December 1998     

Within-plant allocation of a chemical defense in Secale cereale. Is concentration the appropriate currency of allocation?

Summary. The among-leaves allocation of DIBOA, a hydroxamic acid associated with plant resistance, in the shoot of rye (Secale cereale) was evaluated over the vegetative development of the plant. The appropriateness of using the concentration of secondary metabolites, DIBOA in this case, as the parameter to evaluate defense allocation in plants is discussed. Both biological and statistical arguments are put forward to suggest that allocation of chemical defenses should refer to absolute content and not to concentration. Results showed that leaf age was significantly linked to leaf concentration of DIBOA, young leaves having higher concentrations. In contrast, leaf content of DIBOA, our proposed currency of allocation, was not significantly higher in younger leaves. Furthermore, a regression analysis showed that the DIBOA content of leaves was better explained by the leaf relative biomass (proportion of shoot biomass) than by leaf biomass itself. It is suggested that, rather than leaf age, leaf relative biomass is the major factor determining DIBOA allocation in rye shoots. It is proposed that studies addressing within-plant defense allocation should use chemical defense content as the currency, emphasizing the major factors driving this process and its underlying mechanisms. Likewise, it is proposed that studies aiming at characterizing optimal patterns of plant defense should use chemical defense concentration as the currency, and be accompanied by evaluations of the actual resistance against herbivores of the plant parts analyzed, together with the effect on plant fitness. Received 19 February 1999; accepted 28 April 1999.     

用氟化钾水溶液从制药废液中回收吡啶

研究了普通精馏与加盐分相技术在回收吡啶中的应用。测定了吡啶 水 氟化钾体系在25℃时的液液相平衡数据,采用Pitzer理论和UNIQUAC方程对相平衡数据进行了理论计算,结果表明计算值与实验值符合良好。采用氟化钾水溶液回收吡啶,当60%氟化钾浓溶液与50%吡啶/50%水的物料的质量比为2.0时,有机相中吡啶的纯度可达到92.60%(质量分数),水相中氟化钾稀溶液经蒸发回收后循环使用不影响分离性能。该工艺的开发成功为制药行业从制药废液中回收吡啶开辟了一条新途径。     

深井动压影响下山煤巷围岩变形机理与控制研究

以刘桥一矿Ⅱ66回风下山为工程背景,采用现场实测、实验室实验、数值模拟和工业性试验综合分析了下山煤巷非对称变形破坏机理,提出动压影响下深井软弱煤巷围岩多层次组合控制理论,并给出优化控制措施。研究表明:回风下山变形失稳严重并呈非对称性,围岩完整性较差,强度低。地应力实测显示,回风下山处于高原岩应力区,最大主应力为水平应力且具有明显方向性,与巷道轴线夹角为71°,断面顶底板剪切破坏风险较大;数值模拟显示,回风下山开拓延伸期间,受邻近轨道下山、辅助下山影响显著,4煤回采对其影响较小,6煤工作面回采是下山煤巷非对称失稳的主要诱因;提出以围岩深浅孔注浆为核心,以新型注浆锚索、锚杆为装备基础的高阻让压全断面组合控制理论,并给出具体优化方案。工业性试验显示,下山煤巷围岩变形得到有效控制。     

Animal agency in wildlife conservation and management

Wildlife conservation and management (WCM) practices have been historically drawn from a wide variety of academic fields, yet practitioners have been slow to engage with emerging conversations about animals as complex beings, whose individuality and sociality influence their relationships with humans. We propose an explicit acknowledgement of wild, nonhuman animals as active participants in WCM. We examined 190 studies of WCM interventions and outcomes to highlight 3 common assumptions that underpin many present approaches to WCM: animal behaviors are rigid and homogeneous; wildlife exhibit idealized wild behavior and prefer pristine habitats; and human–wildlife relationships are of marginal or secondary importance relative to nonhuman interactions. We found that these management interventions insufficiently considered animal learning, decision-making, individuality, sociality, and relationships with humans and led to unanticipated detrimental outcomes. To address these shortcomings, we synthesized theoretical advances in animal behavioral sciences, animal geographies, and animal legal theory that may help conservation professionals reconceptualize animals and their relationships with humans. Based on advances in these fields, we constructed the concept of animal agency, which we define as the ability of animals to actively influence conservation and management outcomes through their adaptive, context-specific, and complex behaviors that are predicated on their sentience, individuality, lived experiences, cognition, sociality, and cultures in ways that shape and reshape shared human–wildlife cultures, spaces, and histories. Conservation practices, such as compassionate conservation, convivial conservation, and ecological justice, incorporate facets of animal agency. Animal agency can be incorporated in conservation problem-solving by assessing the ways in which agency contributes to species’ survival and by encouraging more adaptive and collaborative decision-making among human and nonhuman stakeholders.     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

基于信息融合的自然灾害等级评估方法研究

为对自然灾害灾情等级进行准确评估,在BP神经网络模型的基础上,结合DS证据理论建立基于信息融合的自然灾害灾情等级评估模型。该模型通过对输入的灾害评估指标数据进行分类,建立网络组,对网络组的输出,建立对于各类信任度的基本概率分配函数,最后利用DS证据理论融合,从而实现灾害的最终等级评估。在MATLAB环境下,以我国45个自然灾害的灾情历史资料数据为训练样本进行模型训练,并对2009年自然灾害灾情进行评估测试。结果表明,该模型能改善单一BP神经网络不稳定、误差大的缺点,得到较优的结果。     

基于突变理论的近海船舶航行安全评价

基于船舶航行安全评价在海事预防与管理中的重要性,从"人-机-环境-管理"指标体系出发,结合近海航行船舶的特点及影响安全的因素,建立一个定量指标为主、定性指标为辅的4级安全评价体系;结合突变级数法和模糊综合评价对近海船舶航行安全进行评价和预测;最后以秦皇岛海域的5艘航行船舶为例进行实例演示。结果表明:用突变级数法对近海船舶航行进行安全评价得出的结论与实际情况基本吻合。应用突变级数法对近海船舶的安全状况进行实时监控、评价和预测,有助于海上运输的安全管理。