Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science

Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes.     

XDLVO理论解析有机物和钙离子对纳滤膜生物污染的影响

为了揭示有机物和Ca2+浓度对纳滤膜生物污染的影响机制,选用铜绿假单胞菌(PA)为模式菌株,海藻酸钠(SA)、牛血清白蛋白(BSA)和腐殖酸(HA)为典型废水有机物,采用extended derjaguin–landau–verwey–overbeek(XDLVO)理论定量解析了不同进水条件下膜预处理和生物污染过程的界面相互作用.结果表明,Ca2+浓度为5mmol/L时,SA预处理后膜面亲水性最强,粘聚自由能高达42.96mJ/m2,与PA、SA的界面自由能最高,分别为45.85和39.64mJ/m2,抑制膜的生物污染.而Ca2+浓度为2mmol/L时,BSA预处理后膜面疏水性最强,粘聚自由能低至–40.32mJ/m2,与PA、BSA的界面自由能最低,分别为3.49和–26.36mJ/m2,促进膜的生物污染.所有污染过程中,范德华作用能差异较小,而静电作用能绝对值极小,贡献微弱,有机物和Ca2+浓度对膜生物污染的影响主要体现在对疏水作用能的影响.     

基于霍尔三维结构绿色建筑标准体系构建研究

为了建立科学的标准体系并能保证标准之间的协调性,通过分析标准体系层次性和复杂性的特点,引入霍尔三维结构理论,从目标、专业、时间3个维度构建覆盖绿色建筑全生命周期的标准体系。     

基于磁化水的全尾砂胶结充填体强度研究

针对某矿山全尾砂充填体抗压强度低,水泥用量大的现状,将磁化水引入全尾砂胶结充填料浆的配浆试验,通过均匀布点理论优选出最佳磁化条件,探究了磁化水-全尾砂充填体的7天、14天、28天抗压强度的变化规律以及磁化水对水泥活性的影响。研究结果表明:在磁感应强度B=1000-2000Gs,水循环流速V=1.4-2.0m/s,磁化时间T=10-20min时,磁化水-全尾砂充填模块的7天抗压强度提高19%-28%,14天抗压强度提高17%-25%,28天抗压强度提高13-15%。     

基于突变理论的目的地旅游安全评价研究

目的地各种旅游突发事件频发,旅游安全的不确定性愈发凸显,旅游安全评价是目的地旅游安全与应急管理的当务之急。依据目的地旅游安全系统的概念及结构,目的地旅游安全系统包括三个子系统,即核心子系统、辅助子系统和保障子系统,并以此构建了目的地旅游安全评价指标体系,同时应用突变理论模型评价方法,对2005~2011年上海市旅游安全度进行测定和判断。结果显示:上海市旅游安全度总体呈上升趋势波动,基本都处于安全区,存在潜在风险。科学合理的旅游安全评价为目的地旅游风险预警、风险防范及规避提供参考。     

区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系构建

基于区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系（Indicators System for Sustainability AssessmentofWater Resources Use, ISSAWRU）构建的一般方法与步骤,论文围绕初始、优化和评价检验三个过程构建ISSAWRU;针对ISSAWRU构建中的指标信息重复和干扰问题,提出相关分析与粗糙集Horafa 属性约简算法相结合的方法实现指标体系的优化,并采用灰色系统理论与粗糙集耦合的评价方法对优化结果进行评价检验。以福建省为例,9 个设区市为研究单元,依据可持续发展理论,从水资源条件、开发利用状况、生态环境和社会经济四个方面,构建由30 项指标组成的初始ISSAWRU,通过筛选得到由12 项指标构成的优化ISSAWRU,进而对这两套指标体系进行评价。结果分析表明：相关分析与粗糙集Horafa 属性约简算法相结合的指标信息优化方案是可靠的;筛除重复和干扰指标信息,简化了繁杂的指标体系,降低了后续评价的计算复杂度,并且信息筛选后的优化ISSAWRU比初始ISSAWRU评价结果更合理。     

The feasibility of concentrated rural settlement in a context of post‐disaster reconstruction: a study of China

There is growing appreciation of the use of concentrated rural settlement as an effective means of implementing infrastructure projects and helping to achieve sustainable development in rural areas. This occurs in China through the exchange of rural residential land for urban construction. However, this policy has not been effective under normal circumstances (called development‐driven conditions) as frequently farmers are reluctant to accept such an exchange. By contrast, in a time of disaster, such as after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, rural victims have accepted this policy of rural residential land exchange. Employing game theory, this paper identifies the reasons for the different outcomes and it contends that the implementation of concentrated rural settlement practice under disaster‐induced conditions is more effective than its introduction under development‐driven conditions. The results of the analysis indicate that, in China, concentrated rural settlement is feasible in a context of post‐disaster reconstruction.     

聚合物包膜肥料研究进展

控释肥料具有重要的经济效益和生态效益,目前世界上应用最多的控释肥料是聚合物包膜肥料。简要阐述了聚合物包膜肥料的研究现状和聚合物模型膜,并对养分释放的模拟进行了探讨。影响聚合物包膜肥料养分释放的因素主要有：膜厚、颗粒半径、扩散系数、养分组成及其溶解特性。国内聚合物包膜肥料的应用还处于起步阶段,随着经济的发展,聚合物包膜肥料在国内具有巨大的应用潜力。中国有关聚合物包膜肥料的研究取得了较好进展,但与发达国家相比,仍然处于较低水平。因此,推出具有中国独立知识产权的商品化聚合物包膜肥料要求加强理论基础研究,并加快产业化进程。     

基于模糊数学和灰色理论的城市生态环境竞争力评价

在综合分析了国内外有关城市竞争力理论研究的基础上,对城市生态环境竞争力的概念和内涵进行了界定,构建了面向生态环境竞争力的评价体系,并以山东省17城市为例,采用灰色系统理论确定各指标的权重,利用模糊综合评价法对各市进行综合评价,研究结果表明,生态环境竞争力排名前三的地市为临沂(0.1894)、日照(0.1705)和烟台(0.1676),而德州(0.1191)、济南(0.1232)、枣庄(0.1274)、滨州(0.1285)和淄博(0.1289)表现相对较差,其他地市处于中游水平.分别从资源禀赋竞争力、污染物减量排放竞争力、环境治理竞争力和能耗竞争力4个子维度对典型城市进行分析,指出了存在的问题,并给出了相应的对策建议.     

基于密度泛函理论模拟单壁碳纳米管对五种核酸碱基的吸附

基于密度泛函理论,模拟了单壁碳纳米管(SWNTs)对5种碱基的吸附作用.考察了SWNTs直径、电荷转移量、碱基最高占据分子轨道能(EHOMO)和最低未占据分子轨道能(ELUMO)与SWNTs吸附碱基的吸附能之间的关系.结果表明,随着SWNTs直径的增大,SWNTs吸附碱基的吸附能降低.SWNT(6,6)吸附5种碱基的最低吸附能Emin与由碱基转移到SWNTs的电荷转移量(Q)及碱基的EHOMO线性负相关,相关系数分别为-0.966和-0.804(P<0.05).吸附后SWNTs与碱基的前线轨道无重叠,且SWNTs电子结构未受影响,表明吸附行为属于物理吸附.