应用极值理论研究台湾和华东地区中强地震活动的相关性

运用极值分布理论对1970～1999年间台湾和华东地区的地震资料进行统计性研究,得出其地震相应震级的复发周期[T(M)]、理论发震次数(η)和华东地区中强地震的发震概率阈值(PO)。通过对T(M)的同比分析,发现两地中强地震存在着较好的相关性。用以上研究的结果对华东地区5级以上地震的发震概率、发震时间和地震强度进行综合判定,效果较好。     

耗散结构理论在矿井通风系统优化中的应用

利用耗散结构理论，以系统的影响参数作为切入点，对矿井通风系统的形成过程、系统平衡等进行描述，据此得出了一些探讨性结沦，这些有助于矿井通风系统优化与控制的计算机模拟。     

灾变预测在火灾预测中的应用

简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点及其建模过程，并将其应用于湖南省和山东省火灾预测之中。经检验，模型的精度等级为好，模型的预测结果可靠，对于消防部门火灾的预测有一定帮助。     

用突变理论分析矿山冒落型地震机理

矿山冒落型地震是一种破坏性最为严重的地质灾害之一。研究其成因机理 ,对矿山安全生产具有重大的现实意义。笔者根据矿山冒落型地震的特征 ,应用突变理论和能量守恒原理 ,建立了一个简单的力学模型 ,提出由地下开采引起采空区顶板突然破坏和冒落—释放能量—诱发地震的观点 ,并结合现场实例进行分析 ,得到顶板冒落和所释放出来的能量表达式 ,这为研究矿山冒落型地震成因机理提供了一种新的方法。     

碳纳米管界面改性超滤膜的抗污机理解析

以碳纳米管(CNT)为核心改性材料,采用喷涂法对聚醚砜(PES)超滤膜进行界面改性,研究改性膜的抗污染性能.结果表明:改性膜经聚乙烯醇交联稳定后,呈现微弱的通透性降低和明显的亲水性提升,CNT交织网状层提高了界面粗糙度;在牛血清白蛋白(BSA)污染试验中,CNT-10改性膜的抗污性能最好,在20mg/L BSA试验后,...     

论系统论视域下的流域生态环境行政治理

流域及其生态环境问题的特殊性引发行政治理体系的变革,系统论为流域生态环境行政治理体系的建构指明了方向,流域生态环境行政治理体系的建构是系统化的工程。在系统论指引下,结合相关规范性文件,流域生态环境行政治理系统的建构需从建立协调机制、规范职权行使与推进治理协同三方面切入,并分别明确三者在流域生态环境行政治理系统中的作用,通过建立议事协调机构发挥协调机制的统筹协调功能、通过整合与上收行政机关职权明确规范职权行使的实施功能、通过建立治理协同机制发挥推进治理协同的支持与保障功能。     

基于尖点突变的人群拥挤模型研究

近年来的统计分析表明,人群拥挤踩踏事故逐步上升为大型公共聚集场所的主要人为事故灾害类型之一。为了防止这类事故带来的危害,需要从理论高度开展对人群拥挤踩踏事故的承载体人群的运行系统的研究。国内外关于人群拥挤事故的研究方法很多,但至今还未找到较为完善、科学和经济的方法。因此提出将尖点突变理论引入到人群拥挤模型中,建立人群拥挤的尖点突变模型。实证分析表明,用突变模型得出的结论与数据拟合得出的结果大体一致,这说明突变理论应用于此领域是可行的。     

基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究

城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。     

Stayers versus movers: Social capital and early career imprinting among young professionals

We investigate what interfirm career mobility patterns would emerge if individuals are motivated by the job rewards they obtain as a function of their experience in organizations. We articulate two career strategies that individuals employ to navigate their early careers—commitment to a single employer and “job hopping” between different employers. Each strategy generates social capital (an individual's structure of social relations) but of a different kind. Embeddedness in the same organization over time develops a strong local identity and reputation within the firm. Boundary spanning through experience in different organizations creates opportunities for connecting people and ideas and for knowledge transfer between firms. We posit and present evidence that the choice between these two strategies is conditioned by social experience at the onset of one's career—the length of tenure with the first employer—which sorts individuals into “stayers” and “movers.”     

Young females' attention toward road safety images: An ERP study of the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory

Objective: This study examined whether reward and punishment sensitivities, as conceptualized by Gray and McNaughton's revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST), influenced young female drivers' attention toward a series of positive and negative antispeeding advertisement images. Young females' increasing crash risk is associated with their engagement in risky behaviors, which, in turn, has been associated with a stronger behavioral approach system (BAS; sensitive to rewards). It was predicted that individuals with a stronger BAS would elicit larger N100 and N200 mean amplitudes (reflecting greater attention) toward the positive images. Similar associations were predicted in relation to the fight–flight–freeze system (FFFS; sensitive to punishments) for negative images.

Method: Twenty-four female drivers (17–25 years; final N = 16) completed Corr-Cooper's RST-Personality Questionnaire, prior to undergoing an event-related potential computerized visual task (i.e., oddball paradigm) that included positive, negative, and neutral images as targets against checkerboard image distractors.

Results: Contrary to expectations, individuals with a stronger BAS (Reward Reactivity and Impulsivity) demonstrated significantly larger N200 mean amplitudes at the Cz electrode site on presentation of the negative images than those with a weaker BAS. No other significant RST effects were found.

Conclusions: These findings provide some preliminary objective support for the use of negative emotion-based road safety advertisements for young females. Further, this study provides support for using psychophysiological measures to enhance understanding of traffic injury persuasion.