基于粗糙集理论的危险货物运输风险分析

为解决不确定环境中危险货物运输风险分析问题,针对风险数值分析等方法无法识别构成风险的主要因素和次要因素,无法获得因素重要度,以及不能揭示风险因素与风险之间的因果关系等问题,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险货物运输风险分析方法。首先将原始样本进行属性约简和规则约简,获得各个属性的重要度,识别影响危险货物运输安全的主要因素和次要因素;然后,通过对原始样本进行实例推理,推导出危险货物运输事故规律;最后通过算例验证模型和算法的有效性。结果表明,道路的平纵曲线半径是影响危险货物运输安全的最重要因素,其次是驾驶员因素和运输车辆因素。     

基于计划行为理论的矿工故意违章行为意向研究

为进一步解释和预测矿工故意违章行为意向,寻求可能的干预对策,以计划行为理论(TPB)为基本的理论构架,加入过去行为和示范性规范2个变量,构建了矿工故意违章行为意向假设模型。采取分层随机抽样方法,对412名矿工进行问卷调查,并借助结构方程建模技术对提出的假设模型进行了验证。研究表明:违章态度、知觉行为控制、示范性规范均对故意违章行为意向有显著的正向影响;主观规范对违章行为意向没有显著的直接影响;主观规范和过去行为通过违章态度间接正向影响违章行为意向。违章态度和示范性规范对故意违章行为意向的整体影响系数比较高,转变违章态度以及发挥群体其他成员遵章行为的示范性是降低故意违章行为意向的重要途径。     

中国湿地生态补偿的利益博弈分析

我国采取了一系列加强湿地生态环境保护的措施,推进了湿地生态状况的改善.但在实践过程中,生态保护仍存在着结构性的政策缺位,湿地生态补偿作为调整损害与保护生态环境主体间利益关系的一种制度安排,是保护生态环境的有效措施.从博弈论的角度出发,分析湿地生态补偿的利益相关者,通过建立湿地生态补偿主体和客体的博弈模型,得出湿地生态补偿主体、客体的纳什均衡策略,并提出针对性的建议.     

环境监管失职罪的正确认定

结合真实案例探讨了环境监管失职罪的两个难点问题,主张运用监督过失理论认定监督人的预见范围,运用偶然因果关系的理论分析监督人的失职行为与危害结果之间的因果关系。     

A simple population theory for mutualism by the use of lattice gas model

The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears.     

集装箱岸桥安全操作中信息处理建模及分析

为研究集装箱岸桥(QC)装卸作业安全操作机理,利用信息论的理论和方法对岸桥信息处理与传递进行建模和计算。首先总结集装箱装卸作业流程的11个作业环节,以人脑为信道,利用通信系统模型建立岸桥司机装卸作业各环节的信息传输转换模型。基于甘特图思想,建立整个装卸作业流程的刺激-反应流程图;并计算作为刺激的各信息源事件的信息量I(xi),信源熵H(X)和信息传递量HT。根据描述性模型和定量计算结果,对各作业环节提出有针对性的事故预防措施。     

Investigation and identification of factors affecting migrating peasant workers’ usage of safety footwear in the Chinese construction industry

A sample of 300 migrating peasant workers from 15 Chinese building construction sites completed a demographic questionnaire to investigate the usage of safety footwear. The survey form was constructed based on the theory of planned behaviour, and a total of 12 questions focusing on the workers’ past experience, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control were included in the survey. It was found that 92% of the participants did not wear safety footwear while working on construction sites, although more than 91% of them believed that safety footwear would protect the foot from injury; none of the participants had been provided free safety footwear by their employer. Regression analysis shows that employers’ attitude is the most important factor affecting their usage of safety footwear, ‘providing free safety footwear’ and ‘comfortability of the safety footwear’ ranking second and third respectively.     

吕梁矿区薄层灰岩突水判别研究

吕梁矿区某矿山西组煤层受奥陶系灰岩含水层和太原组灰岩含水层高承压水威胁,工作面回采时发生了底板突水.为了快速、准确判别突水水源类型,分析突水原因并制定合理的治理措施,采用灰色关联度法分析水质关联度,利用弹塑性理论计算了煤层采动后底板最大破坏深度,分析了隔水层厚度及岩性组合的隔水性能.分析结果表明,煤层底板隔水层厚度平均26m,且软岩所占比例达到62.18％,灰色关联度分析突水水源接近太原组灰岩水,底板最大破坏深度26.7m,距离煤壁22.4m,与实际突水点吻合,判断突水水源为太原组灰岩水.     

基于进化博弈的生态建筑项目开发商群体行为研究

以进化博弈理论为基础,构建了开发商群体在生态建筑项目开发决策中的动态博弈模型,打破了经典博弈理论中参与人完全理性的不合理假定.模型充分讨论了政府激励措施对开发商行为的影响,其结果较好地解释了因信息不对称造成的我国生态建筑项目“市场失灵”现象,为合理引导开发商进行生态建筑项目建设提供了决策依据.