交通主观安全感和客观安全感的博弈

安全交通行为主要表现在道路客观条件和道路使用者的交通安全意识的博弈。综述和评价交通心理领域主要的风险理论,行为-态度理论和任务-能力交互理论,总结出影响主观安全感和客观安全感的潜在因素和交互作用产生的博弈心理,试图揭示交通事故发生的个体层面的原因。分析结果表明:驾驶员安全驾驶行为是受到客观安全感(包括对路况、线性和道路环境等的评估)和个体主观安全感(主要是个性特征),这2种安全感的博弈共同影响着安全驾驶行为。     

城区内涝条件下城市公交-地铁双层交通网络的脆弱性分析

为提高城市公共交通应对内涝的能力,利用复杂网络理论的Space-L方法构建了武汉市中心城区的地铁、公交无向加权网络,并在此基础上运用ArcGIS软件构建了不同耦合半径的公交-地铁双层交通网络,确定了连边的权重和节点的重要度,计算了静态下地铁网络、公交网络和不同耦合半径的公交-地铁双层交通网络的介数、平均路径长度和聚类系...     

四川省河流生态环境需水量统计分析评估

本文介绍了标准流量法计算河流生态环境需水量的状况,针对四川省情况结合四川省水文资料,用当前广泛应用的各种标准流量法,对四川省河流生态环境需水量进行统计计算分析。其成果可以为有关部门和设计研究人员提供背景资料或决策依据。     

智慧工地本质安全度评价方法研究

为对智慧工地全生命周期的本质安全度进行分析与评价,综合运用本质安全理论,构建智慧工地本质安全度评价模型。首先,根据智慧工地本质安全定义,将智慧工地本质安全度划分为初始级、简单级、标准级、成熟级和卓越级5个等级;其次,基于智慧工地的生产现状,构建包括人员管理系统、机械设备管理系统、现场监测预警系统、过程控制管理系统等4个一级指标和16个二级指标的本质安全度评价指标体系;最后,利用C-OWA算子对指标的权重进行计算,采用未确知测度评价法对系统进行综合评价。结果表明:将模型应用到西安地铁某在建项目中,得到该智慧工地项目现阶段推进状态本质安全度等级为标准级,明确该项目下一阶段提升改进的方向,为智慧工地本质安全管理的持续改进提供理论支持。     

基于高阶递归神经网络的AUV鲁棒控制方法

目的 提出一种基于高阶递归神经网络的AUV鲁棒控制方法。方法 利用结构简单但逼近效果优越的高阶递归神经网络,对建模不确定性和外部未知干扰进行估计,并将其补偿到输入控制律中,以提高控制性能。之后,基于HJI理论和Lyapunov稳定性分析导出神经网络权重自适应更新律和AUV自适应控制律,设计反步滑模方法作为对比方法,并进行仿真实验。结果 设计的基于高阶递归神经网络的AUV鲁棒控制方法的跟踪误差、调节时间等控制指标均优于反步滑模方法。设计的鲁棒控制方法可以控制AUV精确跟踪目标轨迹,同时具有优秀的控制性能和鲁棒性。结论 这一研究为AUV轨迹跟踪控制领域提供了一种高效且有效的方法,有望在复杂、不确定的水下环境中得到应用。     

Women executives and off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees: A study of National Football League team organizations

The risk of off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees is a serious concern of top management in professional sport organizations, media and entertainment companies, and public-facing entities in the government and education sectors. Yet there is little research on how to prevent or mitigate this form of misconduct in organizations. Utilizing upper echelons theory and the literature on demographic composition, we examine the relationship between the gender composition of executives of team organizations in a men's professional sport league and subsequent misconduct by players on those teams. Specifically, we employed multilevel and logistic regression analyses to unique data on U.S. National Football League team organizations, and we found that firms with a critical mass of women executives experienced fewer player arrests. No support was found for executive power as a moderator of this relationship. We discuss the implications of our findings for the demographic composition literature. We also offer guidance for preventing and managing off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees.     

动态安全系统理论的研究与应用

将量子纠缠理论引入安全理论中,提出安全与危险纠缠机制;指出人们当前所处的“安全”的状态,实质上是“安全与风险叠加”的状态,是不确定的;而相对于当前的状态,之前的状态实质上是安全的,是确定的,由此重新给出了安全的新认知。再以安危纠缠和安全新认知为理论基础,建立了动态安全系统理论,给安全管理与事故预防提供了新思想和新方向。然后借由塔吊生产系统,展示了动态安全系统理论的应用,定量分析系统内部安全程度,从而使安全管理步入动态的定量化管理阶段。     

Reliability evaluation of fire alarm systems using dynamic Bayesian networks and fuzzy fault tree analysis

In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events.     

关于促进社区居民垃圾分类习惯养成的研究

社区是生活垃圾排放的主要源头场所。本研究以社区为中心,从习惯养成的角度出发,以斯金纳强化理论为依据,综合分析多方面影响因素,为社区垃圾分类管理及居民垃圾分类投放习惯的养成提出合理化建议。     

Study on the damage statistical strength criterion of backfill with crack under thermo-mechanical coupling

ABSTRACT

Aiming at backfill with crack under the thermo-mechanical (TM) coupling, the concepts of crack macro-damage, loading meso-damage, thermal meso-damage, and total damage of backfill were proposed. Based on the statistical damage theory, considering the coupling effects of temperature, load and initial crack, a damage evolution model of backfill with crack under TM coupling effects was established. Based on this, the strength criterion of backfill with crack considering the effects of thermal and mechanical coupling was constructed by multivariate function full differential method. The research shows that: (1) The theoretical curves of damage evolution model and strength criterion of backfill with crack under TM coupling are in good agreement with the test curves, which verifies the rationality of the model. (2) The initial thermal damage decreases first and then increases with increasing temperature, reaches a minimum value at 40°C, and generally shows a “V” -shaped distribution law. The coupling effect of temperature and crack aggravates the total damage of the backfill. (3) The strength criterion can reflect the relationship between the stress and strain of each limit state and the parameters of backfill with crack under different temperature conditions and can provide a certain reference for the evaluation of the stability of backfill with geological defects such as joints and crack in deep high temperature mines.