水煤浆管道爆裂事故管道失效原因分析

针对一起20G水煤浆管道爆裂事故,采用宏观形貌分析、化学成分分析、金相显微组织分析 、SEM微观形貌分析、力学性能测试等试验方法,分析了水煤浆管道失效的原因.结果表明 , 管道破裂是由于管内压力突跃导致,薄膜方程估算得爆炸压力应在200MPa以上,推测为工艺过程中物理化学变化引起的.     

煤层瓦斯含量影响因素分析及灰色预测

矿井煤层瓦斯含量与煤层埋藏深度、围岩性质等密切相关,以不同煤层地质参数及其相对瓦斯含量数据为原始序列,通过灰色处理建立微分方程预测模型,使用GM(1,4)灰色预测模型建立了未开采区瓦斯含量的预测方程,并进行了残差检验.同时对不同因素对瓦斯含量的关联程度进行了分析.     

应用改进的数量化理论预测道路断面事故率

为准确预测道路断面的安全性,建立道路交通事故断面事故率模型。首先选定事故率作为微观预测目标,选取驾驶员的驾龄、车道数、平曲线半径、纵坡度、路面情况、路口路段类型、道路宽度7项因素作为主要影响因素,并且将各影响因素分为若干类目。在数量化理论的基础之上建立改进的数量化理论的道路断面事故率预测模型,最后以某国道222.888～377.387 km段作为算例进行计算,并选取事故多发段333.5～334.0 km处对模型进行具体应用。研究结果表明,对事故影响最大的是该路段中三枝交叉口,其次是3 a(含3 a)以下驾龄及四枝交叉口。     

功能共振事故模型在可控飞行撞地事故分析中的应用

介绍了功能共振理论,说明了事故发生机理,描述了功能单位,介绍了一般性能条件和功能性能波动状态,以及功能共振事故模型分析步骤。利用功能共振事故模型对可控飞行撞地事故进行了分析,识别描述了功能单位,建立了功能网络;根据一般性能条件评价了各个功能单位性能波动状态,在评价结果基础上分析了各个功能单位性能波动状态,确定了＂管制员发出下降指令＂和＂输入导航点信息＂两个随机状态功能单位;进一步分析了功能共振和失效功能连接,以及影响功能共振的功能因素,建立了功能共振失效网络,确定了＂管制员发出下降指令＂、＂输入导航点信息＂、＂保持下降航路＂、＂到达指定导航点＂四个功能共振单位;最后识别出了波动障碍,并制定了＂调整飞行管理系统导航点信息显示方式＂等多个性能监测措施管理可控飞行撞地功能性能波动。     

深水井喷顶部压井成功最小泵排量计算方法

墨西哥湾MC252井发生井喷后,BP公司采用顶部压井法进行压井,但最终失败,目前未见相关文献对失败原因进行分析。顶部压井法是一种非常规压井方法,缺乏现场实践经验及理论指导。压井成功的关键就是从井口泵入的重钻井液无法被井筒中的油气两相携带出井筒,从而使得重钻井液在井筒中聚集,逐渐建立平衡,从而压井成功。基于气液两相流理论,通过研究最小携带钻井液滴的理论,建立了压井成功时的最小泵排量计算模型,计算了不同的参数情况下的泵排量,为成功压井提供了理论依据,并利用模型计算分析了BP顶部压井法失败的原因。     

“Is this really a police station?”: Police department exteriors and judgments of authority, professionalism, and approachability

This study examined the relationship between exteriors of police department facilities and participants’ ratings of the buildings’ authority, professionalism, and approachability. After a pilot study, research was conducted with 122 participants who were undergraduate students from a small, liberal arts college in the Northeast. On each of three characteristics (authority, professionalism, and approachability), participants rated 16 color images of police departments located in the United States. The façade ratings for each characteristic were then categorized into factors through factor analyses. There were three factors for authority (Ineffectual, Strong, and Outdated); three for professionalism (Unskilled, Non-traditional, and Governmental); and four for approachability (Uninviting, Accessible, Public, and Impenetrable). The results were compared to participants’ scores on the Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale (Altemeyer, 1981) and the Social Dominance Orientation scale (Sidanius & Pratto, 1999). Although the primary goal for the study was to determine whether there are consistent responses to police department exteriors, it was hypothesized that the façade ratings would relate to the authoritarianism ratings, with more authoritarian people expected to rate the façades higher in authority. Although this hypothesis was not supported, significant findings were related to gender. Applications to architectural design are discussed.     

Quantifying the sustainability of water use systems: Calculating the balance between network efficiency and resilience

In ecological network theory, network efficiency and resilience are two essential but complementary attributes of the network structure, and a balance between these factors is critical for an ecosystem's long-term sustainability. Our paper introduces this method and related concepts into water use systems to provide a new angle for sustainability quantification. In this paper, we investigate the meanings of network efficiency and resilience in the context of sustainable development of water use systems, and define sustainable systems based on the optimal balance between network efficiency and resilience. With the consideration of complex artificial characteristics of water use, we propose an optimal water use network and quantify its flows. By ascendency calculation, the balanced network structure can be determined. We then use the four sub-basins of China's Haihe River as a case study to illustrate how the optimal network can be constructed and how the optimal balance for each scenario can be calculated. The results show that the optimal balance for the sub-basins has ascendency values ranging from 0.5970 to 0.7161. By analyzing the contribution of each water use activity to network's balance structure, the location of the optimal balance in water use systems can be better understood. This research represents the first attempt to explore the balance between a network structure's efficiency and resilience as a way to quantify the sustainability of water use systems, and builds a foundation for future studies on the assessment, regulation, and management of water resources.     

Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory

In this study, a model for assessing of environmental disasters in near-shore areas was developed using a multi-criteria evaluation method of catastrophe theory. The assessment model involved scenarios of eutrophication, pollution with heavy metals and organic compounds. An evaluation system of the model was composed of seven mesosphere indicators and twenty underlying indicators including water chemistry, water physics, water biology, heavy metals and organic pollutants in water and surface sediments. The model was applied to possibility assessment of environmental disasters in different functional regions of the Dalian Bay in 2001 and 2006. Results showed that the environmental disaster indicators in 2001 were equivalent to the Level 4 standard values of marine functional areas, but the eutrophication disaster indicators were lower than the Level 4 standard values. It is consistent with the occurrence of a large-scale red tide in Dalian Bay in 2001. In 2006, eutrophication remained the dominant problem of the region but organic pollutants, such as oil, were reduced remarkably. This coincided with ongoing local environmental-friendly practices for industries.     

Emergy and emergy algebra explained by means of ingenuous set theory

Emergy is an important concept that has originated several effects in ecology, systems ecology and sustainability science. Its communication, however, has always presented several problems, since it does not follow the same rules of conservation as other energy-based approaches. Attempts have been made to clarify emergy by means of more formal/mathematical approaches, but the problem persists. In this paper, we have introduced a view of emergy and of its algebra based on ingenuous set theory. By means of this simple tool, emergy can be defined as the set of solar exergy that is directly and indirectly necessary to make a product. The operation that correctly sums the emergy “carried” by the inputs to a process is the union. This definition and the operation of union are able to account for all the rules of emergy algebra.     

中国近代灾荒史理论探析

中国近代灾荒史是中国灾荒史的断代史.中国近代灾荒史作为一个研究的有机系统,是由灾害、灾荒、灾因、灾荒社会问题、灾荒救治等子系统组成,各系统又有自己的组成要素,这些架构了中国近代灾荒史的学科体系.中国近代灾荒史与灾害学、社会学、经济史、政治军事史、外交史之间有密切的关系,深入研究中国近代灾荒史,加强灾荒史教育,对今天防灾...