包容性增长中人的全面发展的评价

本文系统地阐述了理论界对人的发展评价指标体系的不同观点,并基于现有包容性增长观的理论基础,根据经济增长对人的包容的评价维度,综合考虑了人的经济发展环境、人的社会发展环境、人的生态环境、人口素质和人的生活质量五大要素来构建指标体系。通过上述5个方面30个指标,基于因子分析法建立人的全面发展综合评价模型,对我国2004-2009年的人的全面发展情况进行评价。研究结果表明:我国2004-2009年人的全面发展状况呈现逐年上升的趋势,且增幅也逐年递增,这表明随着人的全面发展的速度加快,人的全面发展状况越来越好。结合主成分分析解析获得人的全面发展的两个主因子,分别为外部因子(25个指标)与内部因子(5个指标),两个子因子的累积方差贡献率达到87.890%,其中外部因子的贡献率为76.202%,内部因子的贡献率为11.688%。这说明,在决定人的全面发展水平的诸多因素中,外部要素和内部要素是两大主要因素,且前者的影响力大于后者。分析外部因子与内部因子的年际变化规律可知外部要素是正面因素,起着积极的作用,而内部因素则不然。说明我国人的发展存在以外延发展为主,内涵发展不足的现象。综上,文章针对内涵发展不足提出政策建议,以期通过关注人的生活质量、发展潜能和幸福指数,最终来实现人的全面发展。     

丹阳市宅基地使用权流转意愿的影响因素及相互作用

通过丹阳市4个村320户农户实地问卷调查,分析了丹阳市宅基地使用权流转意愿的影响因素,由Logistic回归分析模型,给出了影响因素的驱动力、贡献率的数学表达。结果表明：文化程度、宅基地个数、家庭总收入等影响因素对流转意愿呈正相关;户主年龄、家庭人口数量等影响因素对流转意愿呈负相关。同一农户的影响因素在不同阶段对流转意愿度的贡献率不同,家庭收入和户主年龄是影响宅基地流转的主要因素,他们对宅基地流转分别起着推力和阻力作用,在相互作用过程中,两者之间彼此消长。实地抽样结果分析表明,丹阳农村户主文化程度若为初中且年龄在35岁时,家庭收入能达到34 000元的话,宅基地使用权流转意愿度超过50%。以后每年家庭收入能有一定增速的话,农户流转意愿度将持续保持在50%以上。     

试论地震灾害对经济社会发展的影响

通过收集整理我国大陆显著地震灾害事件与社会经济发展的相关资料,分析讨论不同经济体制下地震灾害对经济社会发展、产业结构调整等方面的影响,并对地震灾后恢复重建提出对策建议。     

Increased Bioavailability of Mercury in the Lagoons of Lomé, Togo: The Possible Role of Dredging

Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging, probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing effect of dredging activity.     

The bioaccumulation of Molybdenum in the earthworm Eisenia andrei: influence of soil properties and ageing

Mo bioaccumulation in the earthworm Eisenia andrei was determined after 28 d exposure in ten different European field soils (pH 4.4-7.8) and an artificial soil, freshly spiked with Na₂MoO₄ at concentrations between 3.2 and 3200 mg Mo kg⁻¹ dry soil. Three field soils were also tested after ageing for 11 months. Earthworm Mo concentrations generally levelled off at high exposure levels but in most soils showed a (nearly) linear increase with increasing soil concentrations in the lower, non-toxic range (below EC10 or NOEC for reproduction effects). Bioaccumulation (BAF) and Bioconcentration factors (BCF) were calculated as the ratio of earthworm concentration to soil and estimated porewater concentrations, respectively. BAFs (0.35-3.44) and BCFs (1.31-276) did not seem much affected by soil concentration, suggesting that earthworms are not capable of regulating their internal Mo concentrations. BAF was best predicted by ammonium oxalate-extractable iron (Fe_ox) and phosphor (P_ox) contents of the soils.     

中国并网光伏发电系统的经济性与环境效益

太阳能已成为世界各国公认的最为理想的替代能源,其应用规模不断扩大.但光伏发电系统高昂的成本,成为限制其发展的关键因素.本文应用净现值和单因素敏感性分析工具,建立了光伏发电成本的计算模型,以我国34个省会城市作为研究案例,对井网光伏发电系统进行了经济性和环境效益分析.结果显示:在目前政府初始投资补贴一半的情况下,并网光伏发电成本介于0.83-2.29元/kWh之间.即便在光照资源最丰富的地区,并网光伏发电仍无法与常规能源发电相竞争.在影响并网光伏系统发电成本的诸多影响因素中,政府初始投资补贴额度、水平面太阳能辐射量和投资密度的敏感性最强;CDM资金的注入对光伏发电成本的降低具有积极的作用.激励政策方面,出台合适的、稳定的上网电价对启动国内光伏市场最为有效.光伏发电系统的环境效益是指光伏发电的减排环境效益扣除系统发电环境成本的余额.经计算并网光伏发电具有显著的环境效益,其环境效益为0.0165元/kWh.本研究对于国家制定光伏发电的激励政策和成本分摊机制具有重要的参考价值.     

Comprehensive Assessment and Promotion Policy of Producer Services’ Competitiveness in Beijing City:A Comparative Analysis among Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen

The five central cities-Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen-of the three most important strategic regions in China,namely Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,are taken as a comparative analysis on urban producer services’ competitiveness,especially focusing on the comparative advantages and disadvantages of producer services in Beijing.Firstly,based on an integrated indicator system including one objective hierarchy,four standard hierarchies and 35 indicator hierarchies,the study applies factor analysis model and analytic hierarchy process model reformed by entropy technology to measure the comprehensive competitiveness of producer services in the above five cities.Secondly,Beijing has comparative advantages of capital resource,industrial base,scientific research resource and market scale,since it takes the first place of the five cities in the comprehensive competitiveness of producer services,the competitiveness of industrial development,business environment and living environment,only inferior to Shanghai in the competitiveness of talent capital.Thirdly,Beijing has comparative disadvantages in the level of producer services development,urban innovation capability and living environment.Finally,five proposals are put forth to enhance the competitiveness of producer services in Beijing,namely perfecting the system of laws and statutes,supporting the development of industry association,implementing scientific development planning,introducing preferential fiscal and taxation policies and strengthening human capital reserve.     

基于WTA的湿地周边农户受偿意愿及影响因素研究

为了实现鄱阳湖湿地生态系统的可持续发展,促进公平合理的湿地保护局面的形成,对鄱阳湖湿地周边农户家庭生产生活的基本情况、生态环境的认知、以及基于禁渔期、保护候鸟和封洲禁牧等保护措施的生态补偿意愿进行了深入调查。结果表明：（1）鄱阳湖周边农户的家庭收入与湿地紧密相关,湖区农户具有一定的湿地生态环境认知和生态保护意识;（2）193份有效问卷中愿意接受补偿的比例高达881%,农户户均生态补偿意愿为3399元/(a·户),由此估算出鄱阳湖湿地生态补偿额约为每年582亿元;（3）Tobit回归模型的计量分析结果表明,农户的受偿意愿受年龄、生态效益的认知及生态保护态度的显著影响,研究认为提高农户的生态保护意识、对湖区农户进行合理的生态补偿是解决湿地保护与可持续发展问题的关键。     

山东半岛城市群地区空间极化及其影响因素研究

以县（市）作为研究单元,采用综合指数法,分别计算山东半岛城市群1986、2008年经济社会发展综合指数,通过比较各单元经济社会发展综合指数的变化,研究了20世纪80年代以来山东半岛城市群地区空间极化的特点;采用面板数据模型,定量探讨了山东半岛城市群地区空间极化的影响因素。研究表明：山东半岛城市群地区经济活动有明显的经济中心指向、沿海指向,空间发展依然以极化为主,新的发展极已经出现,但分布在区域的边缘地带,带动作用不大;大都市区整体规模加剧膨胀,核心和外围地区出现极化和反极化现象;东部地区出现网络化发展的雏形。原有经济基础、产业结构转换能力和经济全球化水平是改革开放以来山东半岛城市群地区空间极化的主要影响因素     

PCDD/F enviromental impact from municipal solid waste bio-drying plant

The present work indentifies some environmental and health impacts of a municipal solid waste bio-drying plant taking into account the PCDD/F release into the atmosphere, its concentration at ground level and its deposition. Four scenarios are presented for the process air treatment and management: biofilter or regenerative thermal oxidation treatment, at two different heights. A Gaussian dispersion model, AERMOD, was used in order to model the dispersion and deposition of the PCDD/F emissions into the atmosphere. Considerations on health risk, from different exposure pathways are presented using an original approach. The case of biofilter at ground level resulted the most critical, depending on the low dispersion of the pollutants. Suggestions on technical solutions for the optimization of the impact are presented.