城乡接合部居民楼火灾风险评价及防控对策研究

为了准确探究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故致因机理,预防与控制城乡接合部日常生产与生活过程中引发火灾事故的有效途径,建立信息面更全、实际性更强的火灾风险评估模型是目前行之有效的手段。基于湖南省某地发生火灾事故的实际情况,根据事故树分析法,以城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故为顶事件构建事故树,计算得到事故树的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,研究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故的发生模式、致因因素及影响程度,为改善城乡接合部居民楼火灾安全提供重要的理论依据,并提出相应的防控措施及对策。     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

Ecosystem restoration in fire-managed savanna woodlands: Effects on biodiversity,local livelihoods and fire intensity

Ethiopia aims to restore 15 million ha degraded forests and woodlands, but effects on the potentially contrasting goals of long-term carbon storage, biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods are unknown. To quantify the effects of grazing exclusion on vegetation and fire behaviour, we established six 30 × 30 m fenced exclosures with grazed controls, in a mesic wooded savanna. Experimental burns were done after 1.5 years. Tree seedlings were few but more common inside fences. Field layer cover and biomass increased inside fences, and grass species increased in numbers and cover. Fire intensity was higher inside fences, killing shrubs and saplings but not mature trees. Interviews confirmed that overgrazing has resulted in “cool fires”, causing shrub encroachment. High-intensity fires occurred in the 1980s after a zoonotic disease killed most livestock. Short-term increase in carbon storage through fire and grazing exclusion may lead to loss of pasture, and in the long-term increased wildfire risk.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01343-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

飞机每飞行小时直接维修工时评估研究

目的细化军用飞机部队使用保障阶段每飞行小时直接维修工时评估的实施方法。方法界定评估条件、确定数据范围和来源,结合部队信息收集工作实际,通过制定各类表格收集数据并分析加工,最终得出评估结论。结果较客观地反映了某型飞机相关维修性特征。结论评估方法贴近部队工作实际,可操作性强,可为各类装备开展相关维修性评估工作提供借鉴。     

区域森林火灾危害程度评价指标构建

为弥补用发生次数和受害森林面积评价森林火灾危害程度的不足,在拟定了林火次数比率、森林燃烧率、森林受害面积比率、每起森林火灾平均受害面积、森林火灾发生次数变异系数、受害森林面积变异系数6个指标的基础上,利用权重法确定了综合指标。结果表明,单一指标可以从某个方面评价森林火灾危害程度,综合指标则能更好地评价某个区域森林火灾的危害程度,更便于区域间的比较和评价。     

火车装油过程初期火灾扑救方法探讨

以敞口、小鹤管、人工装汽油为例,通过试验分析认为:通常采用的干粉灭火法从理论和生产实际来看都存在问题,细水雾法是适合火车装油过程初期火灾扑救的较好方法,具有安全高效的特点。     

大型油库消防系统存在问题分析及预防

对某些油库消防系统存在的阀门泄漏、冬李稳高压系统投用、消防自动设施故障、泡沫液失效、设计规范问题进行了分析,提出要从施工质量、隐患整改、消防演练、维保检测4方面进行预防,保证消防系统在扑灭初期火灾时效能达到最优。     

基于事故统计分析的城市轨道交通运营安全和可靠性研究

本文通过对城市轨道交通运营事故的统计分析,研究了影响轨道交通运营安全和可靠性的主要因素,并构建了城市轨道交通运营安全保障体系,以为提高轨道交通运营安全和可靠性的研究提供依据。     

火灾下钢框架结构热-力耦合模拟与性能分析

基于"自然火灾安全概念"(NFSC)的基本思想,提出了火灾下钢结构热-力耦合模拟方法。利用ANSYS的参数化设计语言,建立了ANSYS软件与OZone火灾分析软件的数据接口,实现了火灾分析软件与大型有限元软件的耦合运用。基于火灾模拟软件OZone的分析结果,利用APDL语言,对钢框架结构进行了真实火灾场景下的热-力耦合模拟。研究表明:钢框架结构在真实火灾场景下,受非均匀变热流影响,结构内部将产生热应力梯度和应力牵移现象;同时钢框架中钢梁固接时,火灾初期变形较小,当达到某个关键时间点后将开始大的变形破坏,其主要原因是钢框架内部产生塑性铰,即钢梁由固接变为铰接,释放了对钢梁的约束。