Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

Economic sustainability and the preservation of environmental assets

The core requirement of sustainability is that current economic activities should not result in an excessive burden on future generations. This criterion is general enough to imply different decision rules for the preservation of environmental assets. Neoclassical economics does not have a sustainability criterion for environmental assets independent of the intertemporal efficiency criterion, which allocates environmental and man-made capital based on projected monetary benefits and costs. This criterion is examined in terms of the feasibility of valuing the benefits of environmental assets, the substitution possibilities between natural and man-made capital, and the ethical grounds for using efficiency as the sole determinant of the allocation of environmental assets. An alternative ecological sustainability criterion is the preservation of safe minimum levels of environmental assets in physical terms rather than the dollar value of a composite of natural and man-made capital. Safe minimum standards for environmental assets constrain the efficiency criterion in order to ensure the sustainability of economic systems. It is argued that the ecological approach to sustainability should limit the economic approach for decisions involving the allocation of environmental assets.     

The world agricultural system and ethical considerations relating to the rural environment: Some perspectives on cause and effect in underdeveloped countries

Food is a basic human need and therefore a basic human right. While food output has increased to a level where there is enough food produced to feed the world, still millions starve. Using the concept of capitalist world economy as a framework, this paper provides a structural analysis of the food production and distribution system within monopoly capitalism and its implications for countries of the underdeveloped world. Focusing on the impact of a dominant world food supply system on indigenous systems (particularly through the rise of science, technology, and monopoly capital), considerations relating to environmental use and food production and distribution are raised. Finally a call is made for a new agricultural ethic.     

Statistical evaluation of an agricultural land suitability model

The land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) method has been used extensively in the United States to assess agricultural land suitability for different localities. Despite widespread use, LESA models rarely have been evaluated in a systematic, comprehensive manner. This article discusses development of a LESA system for Hawaii, the first statewide application of the LESA methodology. The empirical model was implemented with a computerized geographic information system (GIS). The system's efficiency, ability to discriminate among land parcels, and robustness to subjective model parameter values are evaluated with statistical analyses and map overlays of GIS data. Results show great potential to simplify the original model specification, primarily through deletion of marginal site assessment factors. System output was generally insensitive to the numeric values selected for model parameters, with exception of the ratio used to combine the land evaluation (LE) and site assessment (SA) component scores. Relative supplies of the differing land attributes measured by the two components must be considered in determining an appropriate LE:SA ratio for a given area.     

EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF POPULATIONS USING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING,DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of ground-water flow and fate of contaminants in the subsurface environment constitutes a major phase of most environmental assessment and site remediation studies. These simulation studies yield information on spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in the subsurface media. An important use of this information is to conduct exposure assessment studies. Spatial and temporal distributions of both chemical concentrations and exposed populations render this integrated exposure analysis task rather difficult. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), on the other hand, provide a platform in which layered, spatially distributed databases can be manipulated with ease, thereby simplifying exposure analysis tasks significantly. In this paper, we describe procedures that combine the simulation models and demographic databases under a GIS platform to automate the exposure assessment phase of a typical health assessment study. Procedures developed herein significantly simplify the post-processing phase of the analysis, and render the overall task more ‘user friendly.’ A site-specific application is included as a demonstration of the proposed process.     

Problems with using overlay mapping for planning and their implications for geographic information systems

As part of the planning process, maps of natural factors are often superimposed in order to identify areas which are suitable or unsuitable for a particular type of resource management. Overlay maps may also be used to identify analysis areas for predictive modeling of resource productivity and ecological response to management. Current interest in applying computer-assisted mapping technology to making overlay maps is drawing attention to geographic information systems for this purpose. The resultant maps, however, may be so inaccurate or unable to capture significant units of productivity and ecological response that they could lead to imperfect or false conclusions. Recommendations are made on how to proceed in light of these problems.     

AN APPLICATION OF INVESTMENT TIMING ANALYSIS: DUAL WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology to study the economics of dual water systems (defined here as a separate distribution system for untreated low quality local surface Water for outdoor municipal water supply) is summarized and the application of the method to a rapidly growing city is presented. In the first step, a cost-benefit criterion for evaluating dual systems is developed. The criterion is then extended to a dynamic case where the population to be served increases with time and where the dual system is allowed to expand. The optimal investment time to introduce the dual water supply project is obtained by maximizing social welfare. The model is applied to the city of West Jordan, Utah, where a dual system is currently being proposed. Model results indicate that for the city as a whole dual supply is not economically feasible. However, when the model is applied to a part of the city, it is found feasible and the optimal time to initiate the project would be in the year 1989.     

HYDRO-POWER SYSTEM SIMULATION TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT. The non-power requirements of a large hydro-power system of multiple-purpose projects often conflict with the best power peaking operation. In order to schedule an optimum multiple-purpose operation, advanced procedures that necessitate the use of computers are required. Special techniques are used in a computer program developed in the Reservoir Control Center, North Pacific Division of the Corps of Engineers that provide the ability to define operating constraints in order of priority. These techniques are easily adapted to practical reservoir regulation problems so that the program is useful in daily reservoir regulation scheduling.     

Integrated Aquaculture in Subsaharan Africa

An incremental, farmer participatory approach to the development of sustainable aquaculture in integrated farming systems has been tested in Malawi. Average fish production rose from 900 to approximately 1500 kg ha^-1 as farms achieved increasing levels of integration. Integrated farms produce almost six times the cash generated by the typical Malawian smallholder. The integrated pond-vegetable garden generates almost three times the annual net income from the staple maize crop and the homestead combined. The ecological footprint of integrated aquaculture is approximately 4 m² per kg of fish produced compared to 170 m² for more intensive systems. The incremental approach offers the possibility of fostering substantial improvement in rural livelihoods among African smallholding farmers.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A BASIN GEOMORPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM USING A TIN-DEM DATA STRUCTURE1

ABSTRACT: To make a distributed rainfall-runoff model, it is very important to build a model of topographic surface of a basin which takes account of the direction of water flow. In this paper, a geographic information system in hydrologic modeling, the BGIS (Basin Geomorphic Information Systems) are presented for modeling a river basin using a TIN-DEM (Triangulated Irregular Network - Digital Elevation Model) data structure. The BGIS have two core systems, which are the TIN-DEM generating system and the topographic analysis system. In the TIN-DEM generating system, landscapes are modeled as a set of contiguous non-overlapping terangular facets whose vertices are made up of points on a regular grid DEM and on river segments. These triangular facets are subdivided, if needed, so that each of them has only one side through which water flows out. The TIN-DEM generating system is made up of four modules, (1) a module for generating triangles from a grid DEM, (2) a module for getting rid of pits, (3) a module for joining discontinuous valley segments to a channel network, (4) a module for subdividing triangular facets. In the topographic analysis system, using datasets processed with the TIN-DEM generating system, a watershed source area for any segments in a stream network are delineated automatically, and topographic attributes of slopes, aspects, flow path lengths and upslope contributing areas are computed.