我国民用机场航空噪声影响现状及原因分析

描述了我国民用机场航空噪声影响的现状,通过调查发现航空噪声影响严重、比较严重、一般和轻微的民用机场数量分别占全国航班机场总数的0．83％、14．05％、14．88％和70．24％。论文分析了该问题在法规标准、管理、环境影响评价、规划控制和技术研究等5个方面原因。     

Local governance of greenhouse gas emissions from air travel

Global greenhouse gas emissions from air travel (GHG-A) are on the rise, and projections point towards a rapid growth in the coming decades. This study aims to examine how local government (cities), addresses GHG-A in their Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP). To fulfil this aim, over 200 SEAPs were analysed focusing on three issues: (1) Treatment of GHG-A in local emissions inventories; (2) Policy initiatives within this domain; and (3) The cities’ perceptions of the conflicts of interests. Results showed that more than half of the cities acknowledge the challenge of GHG-A, around one third include GHG-A in their emissions inventories, and more than one quarter have initiated policy interventions. To categorise these interventions, we have added a mode ‘governing by agenda setting’ to an existing analytical framework, ‘Modes of governing’. With their authority limited to the local setting, this mode of governing is a common channel for cities to push changes at higher levels.     

基于BN的FTA在通用航空风险评价中的应用

针对事故树分析法(FTA)在风险评价中的局限性,采用以事故树为基础建立的贝叶斯网络(BN)风险模型,对通用航空中的两机空中相撞事故进行分析和推理,对事故模型进行改进和修正时,注重基事件的多态性和事件间的逻辑合理性。根据贝叶斯推理得出的数据,找到了事故的主要致因。结果表明,基于BN的FTA既能向前预测顶事件的发生概率,又能向后诊断基本事件的后验概率,可以更好地对通用航空风险进行评价。     

航空安全信息管理的问题与对策

航空安全信息是民航实施安全风险控制和事故预防的基础,对航空安全水平的提高有重要的作用。笔者总结了民航安全信息的基本构成和来源,及其在安全风险识别、管理决策方面的功用;结合中国民航安全管理状况及行业发展趋势,分析了当前中国民航安全信息管理方面存在的主要问题,指出当前民航安全信息存在着数量不足、质量不高、交流共享困难、分析利用不充分等问题,不利于基于数据驱动的安全管理机制的建立和向规章符合性基础上的绩效管理的转变。针对安全信息管理的这些问题,文章建议民航局通过改善安全信息管理政策、建立航空企业安全信息共享平台、建立国家航空安全信息分析中心、开发安全信息分析利用工具等措施来改善安全信息的收集、分析利用和共享,为提高行业安全管理水平服务。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空器看错落错跑道事件研究

目前,航空器看错、落错跑道事件在国际上是一个相当突出的安全问题,这个问题在我国近年也突显出来。导致航空器看错落错跑道的原因十分复杂,且此类事件及易引发严重的后果,造成人、财、物等多方面的损失,本文特对此类问题开展了一系列的研究。为了预防航空器看错、落错跑道事故的发生,查找诱发该类事故的因素,针对航空器看错、落错跑道事故的形成特点,笔者运用贝叶斯网络探讨其各影响因素间的关系和相互作用,该网络强大的逻辑推理能力,克服了不完备样本空间带来的不足,揭示了人、机、环境与管理因素相互作用的内在规律。为改善机场安全管理的科学性、可靠性,进一步降低事故率,提供了可靠的技术支持。     

Safety Climate in Finnish- and Swedish-Speaking Companies

The aim of this study was to compare assessments made by Finnish- and Swedish-speaking workers in Finland about the safety climate in their companies, because an earlier study showed that the accident frequency of Swedish-speaking workers was one third lower than that of Finnish-speaking workers. 148 Finnish-speaking and 138 Swedish-speaking workers from 14 small and medium-sized companies participated in this study. They filled out a Finnish safety climate questionnaire, the reliability of which was above the acceptable level. There were no differences between the language groups in the total variables of safety climate and safety action. Based on the differences in single items, we interpreted that Swedish-speaking workers stressed collective safety more, whereas Finnish-speaking workers put more emphasis on their personal responsibility for safety.     

Occupational Accidents of Finnish-and Swedish-Speaking Workers in Finland: A Mental Model View

This article is based on 2 studies. The aim of the first study was to examine the differences in occupational accident frequency between the 2 main language groups in Finland. Based on 3 independent statistical data sets, it was shown that Swedish-speaking workers had about 40% fewer occupational accidents than Finnish-speaking workers. The aim of the second study was to confirm the difference at company level. A field study in the province of Vaasa with 14 small and medium-sized manufacturing companies revealed that the accident frequency of Swedish-speaking workers was 21% lower than that of Finnish-speaking workers.     

Investing in fertilizer–mining companies in times of food scarcity

The primary goal of the paper is to show the validity of investing capital in fertilizer–mining companies, both from a market return perspective for individual or institutional investors, or from a hedging standpoint for insurance companies and other economic actors exposed to inflation risk and high agricultural commodity prices. After providing some elements on the fertilizer market and describing the joint dynamics of corn, wheat and fertilizer prices over the last decade, we analyze an exhaustive sample of listed fertilizer producing companies over the years January 2004–December 2012. We show that their shares generated quite good returns over the whole period and extremely high ones during the years January 2004–December 2007, both in absolute terms and compared to their betas. We also exhibit that these returns display higher sensitivities to major agricultural indexes than to the World Bank Fertilizer Index, making the hedging argument quite compelling.     

基于CDIO的民航安全工程课程体系研究

研究、对比了行业特色性和通用行业安全性两种现行安全工程课程体系的现状及存在的主要问题,提出了基于CDIO的民航安全工程课程体系,即C＂构思＂：以产业需求为导向从基本素质、技能、经验和意识4个方面设置了民航安全专业人才能力要求;D＂设计＂：设计了理论知识和技术、应用技能、实验实践和意识4大模块的课程体系,其中理论知识和技术模块采用2＋X＋1和模块化教学模式;I＂实施＂：从＂工程师＂模式教师团队培养、项目教学方法改革、教材建设同步产业需求、实验和实践环节建设等落实课程体系;O＂运行＂：通过多渠道获取反馈信息,进而评估、修订、完善课程体系的＂构思＂,实现民航安全工程课程体系系统管理、闭环管理、持续改进。该模式弥补了安全工程课程体系不是以＂工作能力需求＂为导向、课程体系与产业需求脱节和理论与实践无法有机结合等问题。     

航空维修差错模式及差错成因的灰色关联分析

提出一种基于HFACS-ME框架和灰色关联分析法的航空维修差错模式和差错成因之间关系的分析方法。利用该方法分别从"模式—成因"和"成因—模式"2个方向,以"技能差错"和"身体状态差"为例,对差错模式和差错成因之间的关系进行分析,得到影响"技能差错"的主要差错成因依次为空间狭窄、培训不足、工具损坏、身体状态差、精神状态差、空间阻碍,以及"身体状态差"主要影响的差错模式为记忆差错、决策差错、技能差错。结果表明,灰色关联分析法对航空维修差错模式和差错成因之间关系的分析是有效的、可行的。