航空压力环境对锂离子电池热解气体爆炸极限影响*

针对航空锂离子电池热失控释放气体安全性研究不足的问题,采用气体拉曼光谱技术、气相色谱仪(Gas Chromatography,GC)和质谱(Mass Spectroscopy,MS)耦合来探究压力和荷电状态(State of Charge,SOC)对锂离子电池早期故障气体类型、气体动态演变及气体潜在危险性等特征的影响规律,同时综合考虑压力、电压和电池温度等多种因素分析锂离子电池热失控危害。研究结果表明:电池SOC越高且环境压力越低,电池越早触发热失控,爆炸极限越宽,其中30 kPa下100%SOC电池热解气体爆炸极限为8.01%~53.35%;SOC和环境压力越高,电池热失控越危险,释放的气体体积越多;CO,CO2,PF3,C2H4及电解液（C3H6O2、C3H6O3、C4H8O2）等气体可作为航空锂离子电池早期故障诊断特征。研究结果对保障锂离子电池在航空领域的安全运输及应用具有重要意义。     

Co-Partnership in Forest Management: The Gwira-Banso Joint Forest Management Project in Ghana

The involvement of local communities, as well as the private sector and the government in forest management is now an important principle of tropical forestry policy and practice and a major component of most international forestry aid programmes. This paper present an analysis on the Joint Forest Management Project initiated by two timber companies (Ghana Primewood Products Ltd and Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman) in collaboration with local people in Gwira-Banso of Ghana. Conditions required for enhancing responsibility for and commitment to local forest management, and for an effective local participatory process were also analysed. The study began with the premise that incentives and good communication will enhance participation in joint forest management.The assumption was valid and the results from the survey showed that five broad issues prioritised by respondents to be essential for co-partnership in forest management are communication, financial support, tree planting, multiple land use and benefit sharing. The Project enjoys a great deal of support from the local community, but a number of factors make the continued support of local people a challenging task, including questions of immediate livelihood sources and tenure arrangements. Although this participatory forest management has been implemented over a relatively short period, there is evidence that government and private sectors can successfully involve local people in sustainable management of the forests.     

Genetic Engineering in Agriculture: Who Stands to Benefit?

The use of genetic engineering inagriculture has been the source of much debate. Todate, arguments have focused most strongly on thepotential human health risks, the flow of geneticmaterial to related species, and ecologicalconsequences. Little attention appears to have beengiven to a more fundamental concern, namely, who willbe the beneficiaries of this technology? Given the prevalence of chronic hunger and thestark economics of farming, it is arguable thatfarmers and the hungry should be the mainbeneficiaries of agricultural research. However, theapplication of genetic engineering appears unlikely tobenefit either of these two groups. This technology islargely controlled by the private sector, and itscontinued development hinges on its profitability.Thus, the only likely beneficiaries of the applicationof genetic engineering in agriculture are companieswith the capacity to use it.     

电感耦合等离子光谱法测定油中硫的方法探讨

研究了以航空煤油作稀释剂,选择合适的稀释比例,在电感耦合等离子光谱仪(ICP-AES)上采取直接进样测定不同类型油样中硫的方法。由本实验得出方法的检出限为0.06%(600mg/kg),相对标准偏差为1.0%～5.0%,实际样品的测定结果与用国标方法的测定结果相符。     

基于ARIMA与LS-SVM组合模型的飞行事故征候预测

应用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的组合模型,对某航空公司的月度事故征候万时率进行了预测分析。对2008—2016年某航空公司的事故征候、飞行小时、航空器数量等历史数据建立ARIMA模型,应用SPSS软件进行模型拟合,获得事故征候万时率的线性部分;随后利用LS-SVM分析ARIMA模型的残差,获取非线性部分,最终通过二者之和获得ARIMA+LSSVM组合模型。对2017年1—3月的月度事故征候万时率进行了预测,并用实际数据验证。结果表明:ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12模型较好地拟合了事故征候万时率的历史序列,LS-SVM模型对残差的拟合获得了较好的精度;组合模型的短期(3个月)预测值与航空公司事故征候万时率的趋势完全一致,且预测精确度可接受。     

Preparation of jet engine range fuel from biomass pyrolysis oil through hydrogenation and its comparison with aviation kerosene

The Bio-oil was produced from the pyrolysis of agricultural wastes (Eucalyptus sawdust) and discarded soybean frying oil. The temperature of the pyrolysis system was initiated at 28°C and increased to 850°C. Atmospheric distillation of crude bio-oil was performed and a fraction at a temperature range 160–240°C (pyrolysis oil) was separated and subjected to GC-MS, ¹H-NMR, TGA and FTIR analysis to identify the different properties and compounds present in pyrolysis oil. It was noticed that there was an abundance of oxygen and nitrogen containing compounds as well as other reactive species in pyrolysis oil. To reduce the amount of these species, the pyrolysis oil was subjected to hydrogenation in the presence of NiMo as a catalyst. After hydrogenation, the atmospheric distillation of hydrogenated bio-oil was performed and another fraction at temperature range 160–240°C (hydrogenated bio-oil) was separated and analyzed by the same techniques. It was noticed that during hydrogenation, more than 60% oxygenated and other reactive species were converted into hydrocarbons. Hydrogenated bio-oil showed very similar physico-chemical properties such as distillation curve, density, viscosity, freezing point, flash point, the presence of hydrocarbons and enthalpy of combustion as aviation kerosene also known as QAV-1.     

考虑等待位置的航空器交叉滑行冲突概率模型

为解决交叉道口冲突范围定义不完整等问题,提出了航空器交叉滑行冲突概率模型。该模型针对交叉滑行道结构特点,以T型交叉口为例,综合等待位置、机身长度、喷流范围等要素,扩展冲突区域,基于实时速度、位置变化构造冲突概率模型,并利用速度分布密度函数对模型求解。仿真验证表明:模型能计算不同运动状态的中型机在T型交叉口处的冲突概率,T型道口等待位置对冲突概率影响较大,等待位置较近将造成冲突判断延迟,等待位置较远会产生虚警误判,致使滑行中断。利用实际滑行轨迹验证,结果表明:模型能够再现T型道口上2架中型机滑行冲突产生、发展及解脱过程,计算结果与实际运行情况一致,能为管制员、飞行员提前判断冲突,及时采取措施提供依据。     

民航安全信息个体自愿报告意愿的影响因素研究

在前人研究成果的基础上,选择认知水平、同事顾虑、上级领导抵触、利己考虑、集体考虑、系统本身、安全文化7个影响因素,并依据SCASS分类标准,将上报意愿分为6个维度(报告提交经验、航空器不良运行或设备缺陷报告提交意愿、自身违规差错报告提交意愿、空防安全事件或隐患报告提交意愿、执行标准或飞行程序困难事件报告提交意愿、同事发生此类事件报告提交意愿),构建并验证个体自愿上报意愿的影响因素模型。研究发现,各类事件上报意愿分别受到不同的因素影响,其中,认知水平和安全文化对上报意愿起到正向影响,其他影响因素起到负向影响。本研究为民航单位针对性提高员工上报意愿提供理论指导。     

民航不安全事件报告危险源识别模型

为了识别民航不安全事件的发生原因,从民航不安全事件报告出发,提出了一种基于LDA主题模型和Word2Vec模型的民航不安全事件报告危险源识别模型。首先,构建危险源标签分类表,选取民航不安全事件报告与Wiki中文数据库作为数据源,然后利用LDA主题模型得出民航不安全事件报告的主题概率分布与词概率分布,最后利用Wiki中文数据库训练Word2Vec模型得到词向量,进而计算文档主题与不同危险源标签之间的相似度,得出民航不安全事件报告的危险源分类。结果表明,该模型的精准率为77.7%、召回率为86.8%、F为82.0%,能够有效识别各民航不安全事件报告的危险源。     

一种新的飞行事故征候率监视与控制方法

为了改进民用航空飞行安全的监控手段,探讨了一种飞行事故征候率的监视和控制方法。通过采用W检验法,对中国民航2008年各月飞行事故征候率统计数据进行正态分布拟合优度检验。结果表明:在10%的显著水平下,飞行事故征候率总体服从正态分布。假设正常情况下,飞行事故征候率超过警戒值的概率仅为0.1%,选择该概率为确定警戒值的标准。根据前一年12个月的飞行事故征候率统计数据和确定警戒值的标准,以子样均值作为母体均值估计量,子样无偏方差的平方根作为母体标准差的估计量,可计算出当年飞行事故征候率警戒值;此外,还提出了控制民用航空安全水平的准则。