基于灰色新陈代谢马尔可夫模型的飞行事故预测

灰色预测适用于时间短、数据量少和波动不大的预测问题,在长期预测时,数据序列拟合较差,预测精度偏低;而马尔可夫链适用于长期、数据序列随机波动大的预测问题。笔者结合灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫链理论的优点,建立飞行事故预测模型。模型去掉已失去参考价值的历史老信息,补充新信息,克服了随机波动性数据对飞行事故预测精度的影响,提高了灰色预测的应用水平。实例预测1973—2008世界飞行事故,其结果证明了灰色新陈代谢马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型预测精度较高,可用于飞行事故预测,具有较强的科学性和实用性。     

基于FAHP的岗位交叉培训在民航安全管理中的应用

通过分析民航岗位安全培训的现状,发现培训内容仅局限于员工自身岗位的工作内容,而忽略了对于相关岗位之间衔接内容进行系统的培训,这非常不利于不同岗位间的协调;基于此提出了民航岗位交叉培训,通过对民航岗位间的具体关系进行分析,确定出需要进行交叉培训的岗位,利用FAHP模糊层次分析法选择出具体岗位之间的交叉培训方案,从而使民航系统内的岗位交叉培训更为系统化,使得民航系统安全管理更加行之有效。     

Research on the transmission mechanism of low-carbon policies: an empirical study of agricultural companies

Companies bear primary responsibility for low-carbon economy, thus relevant low-carbon policies should be set properly to guide them and to ensure their low-carbon production effectively. To solve the problems generated during low-carbon development, this article verifies the existence of the transmission path and strength. This verification includes mediating variables of companies’ willingness and capacity to conduct low-carbon production, a transmission mechanism through incentive path and resources protection, and questionnaire data of agricultural companies. Conclusions show that the low-carbon policies have obvious positive effects on willingness of corporation; the basic service-oriented policy has a significantly promoting effect on low-carbon production capacity; and low-carbon production performance is positively influenced by willingness as well as capability. Aiming at a better transmission path, some corresponding recommendations have been put forward in the end.     

烟气对民航安全的评估技术研究

工业设施排放的烟气对民航具有潜在影响,开展烟气对民航影响方面的研究,对维护机场净空安全具有重要意义.结合国内外烟气对民航安全评估的相关研究现状,归纳了烟气自身及其排放源的特点.确定烟气主要影响机场附近航行安全,同时烟气排放源可视为一般障碍物,并从烟气流和烟气成分角度分析烟气自身对航行安全的影响.最后对实测、软件仿真、风洞试验等现有评估方法进行了对比分析,归纳了烟气评估技术现实情况,并展望了评估技术未来的发展趋势.     

航空工业安全生产标准体系研究

基于我国航空工业安全生产标准的现状,探讨了航空工业安全生产标准体系的编制原则和思路,通过资料搜集、行业调研、体系框架构建等过程,建立了具有标准类型、体系层次、专业分类三维界面结构的航空工业安全生产标准体系,划分为基础通用、安全管理和安全技术3个子体系、5个级别层次3、5个专用分支。同时,设计了航空工业安全生产标准明细表,纳入了200余项相关标准和建议制修订行业标准,分析了建议制修订标准的必要性和可行性,并提出了下一阶段首先需要制订的航标重点项目。该体系体现了我国航空工业安全生产的特色,具有一定的必要性和适用性,对于工业领域尤其是国防军工行业安全生产标准化建设的发展以及标准体系的建立具有一定的促进意义和参考价值。     

新型航空装备研制风险的管理与控制研究

为了有效管控航空装备研制的风险,在分析航空装备研制风险管理内涵并构建航空装备研制风险闭环控制流程的基础上,采取分解新型战斗机关键技术的方法,系统地辨识了装备研制的危险源;通过考虑多种技术风险后果及其影响权重,对传统的风险矩阵进行了改进,得到了航空装备研制风险计算模型,最后给出了航空装备研制风险的预警流程,为新型航空装备...     

面向新型航空装备系统的安全保障模式研究

四代机和大型运输机作为新型的航空装备,因其具有更为先进的技术性能,导致服役风险的增大。为促进国内四代机装备部队后战斗力的迅速形成,提出了一种基于和谐交互机制的安全保障模式。通过建立系统安全度模型,揭示了航空装备系统本质安全化的规律,即注重系统组元本质安全化的同时,强调系统组元内部及其与外界环境间的和谐交互作用。分析了系统安全保障模式中的人的本质安全化和环境的本质安全化,阐述了三类本质安全人的职责和相互关系;借用辐射理念,建立了系统安全辐射模型,提出安全辐射是扩大安全效益的有效手段;对航空装备系统本质安全化中的总效用和边际效用进行了数学描述,认为系统组元达到有机耦合是安全效用最大化的唯一途径,所述观点为新型航空装备的安全服役有一定指导意义。     

旅游上市公司财务危机的突变级数预测模型及实证研究

旅游企业因财务风险导致的经营陷入困境甚至破产清算现象不断增加。为了提供预防企业陷入财务困境的有效措施,基于突变级数法,以2000—2009年沪深两市首次被特别处理的A股旅游上市公司为研究对象,从经营能力和发展能力等方面选取核心财务指标,构建财务预测模型,运用亏损前一年(ST-3)的数据算出预警阀值,以亏损当年(ST-2)数据进行检验。讨论了财务危机发生的原因,通过ST公司与正常公司均值比较得出以下结论:旅游企业陷入财务危机的根源是经营能力不足、现金流量发展水平较低,从而影响了偿债能力、盈利能力和成长能力。     

Maintaining land use agreements in Papua New Guinea Mining: ‘Business as usual’?

Most large scale resource extraction projects in Papua New Guinea (PNG) require companies to negotiate with customary landowners for access to development sites. In the discussion of process and challenges of development and operation of projects, particularly mines, the paper, basing as a case study of land use arrangements in PNG mining, has several objectives to address. First, it discusses land use arrangements in the mining industry and how they have evolved over the last few decades. Today, most of these arrangements involve pluralistic framework agreements which have been shaped by land tenure debates, civil uprisings, government initiatives and increasingly politically savvy customary landowners. This pluralistic process encourages key stakeholder involvement, particularly customary landowner participation which has been an innovative piece of sustainable mineral policy development in PNG. Second, the paper argues that ‘it is not business as usual’ for mining companies as it would generally be the case in developed and many developing countries because they are increasingly forced to be proactive in addressing landowner and community interests while managing mining projects. A brief overview of land use debates in PNG is summarised at the outset to provide background to mining and development in the country. Third, the significance of the corporate social responsibility (CSR) paradigm and its impact on business, particularly the mining industry is acknowledged intermittently in the discussion to shed light on how it is influencing development of local communities. Finally, the paper argues that the post-Bougainville period has led to a change of the old enclave model of mining development to a broad based community driven form of development around mining. However, it is difficult to predict as to how this model of mining led development in rural PNG will span out in the long run. In the meantime, genuine landowner partnerships with developers and government in the management and operation of mining projects in the country are proving to be a positive outcome for everyone despite some major challenges.     

发展循环经济 开辟航空业新纪元

随着人们环保意识的逐渐增强,航空业所造成的环境和噪声污染已经越来越成为令人关注的重大问题。从5个方面介绍了发达国家航空业发展循环经济的经验,指出我国作为发展中国家,要正视与发达国家的差距,借鉴国外先进经验,转变观念、大胆创新,大力发展循环经济,开辟我国航空业的新纪元。