Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.     

Progress and challenges in consolidating the management of Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories

Effective management refers to the ability of a protected area or indigenous territory to meet its objectives, particularly as they relate to the protection of biodiversity and forest cover. Effective management is achieved through a process of consolidation, which among other things requires legally protecting sites, integrating sites into land‐use planning, developing and implementing management and resource‐use plans, and securing long‐term funding to pay for recurrent costs. Effectively managing all protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon may be needed to avoid a deforestation tipping point beyond which regional climatic feedbacks and global climate change interact to catalyze irreversible drying and savannization of large areas. At present, protected areas and indigenous territories cover 45.5% (3.55 million km²) of the Amazon, most of the 60–70% forest cover required to maintain hydrologic and climatic function. Three independent evaluations of a long‐term large‐scale philanthropic initiative in the Amazon yielded insights into the challenges and advances toward achieving effective management of protected areas and indigenous territories. Over the life of the initiative, management of sites has improved considerably, particularly with respect to management planning and capacity building, but few sites are effectively managed and many lack sufficient long‐term financing, adequate governance, support of nongovernmental organizations, and the means to withstand economic pressures. The time and money required to complete consolidation is still poorly understood, but it is clear that philanthropic funding is critical so long as essential funding needs are not met by governments and other sources, which could be on the order of decades. Despite challenges, it is encouraging that legal protection has expanded greatly and management of sites is improving steadily. Management of protected areas in other developing countries could be informed by improvements that have occurred in Amazonian countries.     

郯庐断裂系统与中国东部幔源岩浆成因CO_2关系的初探

中国已发现的幔源岩浆成因CO2气藏主要分布在与郯庐断裂发育密切相关的东部伸展盆地，两者关系具体表现如下：1．中国东部幔源岩浆成因CO2气藏的空间展布与郯庐断裂保持一致；2．郯庐断裂切割深度达到上地幔；3．沿郯庐断裂岩浆活动强烈，且具幔源特点；4．中国东部伸展盆地自中、新生代以来的演化受郯庐断裂带活动影响。本文主要以郯庐断裂带为主线，结合幔源岩浆成因CO2气藏典型实例，从郯庐断裂构造环境、空间格局和演化过程对幔源岩浆成因CO2的控制作用进行初步归纳和分析。     

寻找紧缺的银矿资源——地质工作者的急迫使命

由于近二十年来全世界工业的快速发展 ,银的用途益发广泛 ,白银需求量迅猛增加 ,它不仅是我国紧缺的矿产资源 ,而且已成为世界市场上的走俏商品 ,全世界已连续九年需大于供 ,九年累计缺银 1 0亿盎司 ,并且缺口越来越大。专家们预测 :到 1 998年底全世界库存的银锭消耗殆尽。我国前几年有 1 / 2 -1 / 3的白银靠进口 ,1 997年还进口白银 1 55吨。因而 ,银价剧烈上扬 ,从 1 996年的 4美元 /盎司 ,涨到 1 998年 2月份的 7.81美元 /盎司。与白银相反 ,近两年黄金供远过于求 ,1 997年全世界多出 3 93吨 ,故金价急剧下跌 ,从 1 996年的 3 87.87美元 /盎司 ,降到 1 998年 6月份的 2 87.9美元/盎司。由于银需求量增大 ,加之有色金属工业的不景气 ,银产量不仅不能增长 ,而且反而下降。因而人们提出寻找能根据需要而生产的、具有独立开采价值的银矿床 ,即独立银矿床。全世界有三大巨型成矿带 ,我国有四大银成矿区。这些成矿区带的核心是火山 -岩浆活动带。银成矿区带都受巨型或区域深大断裂带控制 ,独立银矿床多产于区域深大断裂带旁侧的次级断层交汇处或附近。独立银矿床的直接围岩可以是火成岩、沉积岩和变质岩 ,但是它们位于火山岩浆活动带中 ,而且以火山岩为主。     

带式压滤机脱水系统加药自动控制

通过实验确定了污泥脱水化学调节过程药理和污泥浓度之间的关系,建立了加药自动控制数学模型。在唐山西郊污水处理厂２ｍ带式压滤机脱水系统中,通过在线测量污泥瞬时浓度和流量实现投药自动控制,使带式压滤机长期正常运转,改善机械脱水效果,平均节约用药量１５％。     

The effect of protected areas on forest disturbance in the Carpathian Mountains 1985–2010

Protected areas are a cornerstone for forest protection, but they are not always effective during times of socioeconomic and institutional crises. The Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe are an ecologically outstanding region, with widespread seminatural and old‐growth forest. Since 1990, Carpathian countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine) have experienced economic hardship and institutional changes, including the breakdown of socialism, European Union accession, and a rapid expansion of protected areas. The question is how protected‐area effectiveness has varied during these times across the Carpathians given these changes. We analyzed a satellite‐based data set of forest disturbance (i.e., forest loss due to harvesting or natural disturbances) from 1985 to 2010 and used matching statistics and a fixed‐effects estimator to quantify the effect of protection on forest disturbance. Protected areas in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Ukraine had significantly less deforestation inside protected areas than outside in some periods; the likelihood of disturbance was reduced by 1–5%. The effectiveness of protection increased over time in these countries, whereas the opposite was true in Romania. Older protected areas were most effective in Romania and Hungary, but newer protected areas were more effective in Czech Republic, and Poland. Strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN] protection category Ia‐II) was not more effective than landscape‐level protection (IUCN III‐VI). We suggest that the strength of institutions, the differences in forest privatization, forest management, prior distribution of protected areas, and when countries joined the European Union may provide explanations for the strikingly heterogeneous effectiveness patterns among countries. Our results highlight how different the effects of protected areas can be at broad scales, indicating that the effectiveness of protected areas is transitory over time and space and suggesting that generalizations about the effectiveness of protected areas can be misleading.     

科学在环境影响评价中的作用

环境影响评价(EIA)既是一门技术又是一项制度。科学对环境影响评价的作用同样主要表现在技术和制度两方面:相应的技术规范及替代解决方案使其成为应用科学,而公众参与与制度保证使其成为公民科学。其制度特性较技术性更为基础,更为重要,科学在其中的作用需要更加重视。     

FPSO泡沫灭火系统的有效性研究

从泡沫灭火剂的选择、种类特性、取样送检要求、兼容性等几方面对FPSD泡沫灭火系统的有效性进行了研究,旨在从泡沫灭火系统的设计、采办、布局、安装、调试、操作及日常维护等整个生产周期出发,确保FPSO泡沫灭火系统的完整、可用和有效,以期为油田的安全开发提供参考。     

新疆阿尔泰地槽成矿元素分布特征

新疆阿尔泰地槽内成矿元素 ,自北东向南西分为四个带 ,每个带内分布有元素区和矿床 :①阿尔泰山北缘元素带 (阿克萨拉等区 ) ;②阿尔泰山中脊元素带 (冲呼等五个区和可可托海 3号脉稀有金属矿等矿床 ) ;③阿尔泰山南缘元素带 (阿舍勒等四个区和阿舍勒铜矿等矿床 ) ;④额尔齐斯元素带 (喀拉通克等区和喀拉通克铜镍矿等矿床 )。成矿元素区带是寻找新矿床的有利地段     

玉溪市城市绿地系统规划研究

本文系统地分析了玉溪市绿地系统现状及城市绿地建设存在的问题，结合国际城市绿化发展的趋势，为玉溪市今后的绿地建设提出思路和对策。