电子商务能改善农业生产的环境负效应吗?-来自上海青浦的证据

电子商务在农村农业领域的快速发展带动了农民收入的增加,但是其作用路径和环境效应有待检验.以上海市青浦区为典型案例,利用264份新型农业经营主体的问卷调查数据,采用IV-ordered Probit模型和夏普利值分解法,研究了"电子商务+农业"模式的经济效应和环境效应.结果表明：电子商务的引入具有显著的农民增收效应,但主要以产量扩大型传导机制为主,反而加剧了农业生产的环境负效应.电子商务并非农民增收的关键因素,其贡献率仅为12%;发挥决定性作用的是新技术、新方法的应用带来的效率提升,以及生产规模扩大带来的规模经济效应,相应的夏普利分解贡献了达到31%和25%.这表明当前的"电子商务+农业"模式仍处于初级发展阶段,需要加强相应的规制和引导,实现从产量驱动阶段向质量驱动阶段转型.     

从生物群落到生态系统综合保护：国家公园生态系统完整性保护的理论演变

自然保护事业已经进入人与自然和谐的综合保护阶段,突破传统生物群落保护的要素式思维,从生态特征、生态系统健康和自组织能力等视角系统实施生态系统完整性保护,已基本成为共识。中国经历了长期部门化割裂管理,在国家公园体制建设过程中开始由分散走向统一,要求将山水林田湖草作为生命共同体进行生态系统完整性保护。基于集合种群等空间生态学理论,提出国家公园生态系统完整性不仅意味着内部自然空间的完整,更需着眼国家生态安全的大局和自然保护地体系的战略布局。国家公园只有成为生态地理区的节点并辐射周边区域,有效平衡行政区域之间以及人与自然之间的关系,才能真正实现完整生态系统的长效保护。目前,国内既有研究在指导全域布局和平衡人地关系方面仍考虑不足,试点过程中还存在管理型技术方法欠缺、空间边界受限于行政边界、未能从全局着眼构建以国家公园为核心的生态系统完整性网络、未充分考虑差异化的人地关系等问题。未来需要着眼大局,有效平衡国家公园及其周边区域的关系、不同行政区域之间的关系、国家公园人与自然的关系,从而实现生态系统完整性的长效保护。     

人群的自然和社会属性分类下PM2.5对心血管疾病的影响

为了研究人群在自然属性和社会属性分类下的效应修饰作用,利用2005~2011年北京市大气PM_2.5日均浓度、气象要素及循环系统疾病每日死亡人数数据,根据不同年龄、性别及学历将人群分组,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型（GAM）,定量评价大气PM_2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响.单污染物模型和多污染物模型结果表明,PM_2.5为影响循环系统疾病每日死亡人数的主要大气污染物.北京市空气中PM_2.5的浓度每增加10μg/m³,循环系统疾病总死亡人数增加0.50%（95% CI：0.36,0.63）.不同人群的易感程度不同,各人群死亡人数的增加范围为0.23~0.71%,女性、60~74岁人群、文盲人群的健康风险相对较高.在文盲人群中,老年（60+）女性占比为66.2%,为了分离社会属性人群分类中可能存在的自然属性因素干扰,本文去除其中老年、女性这两个混杂因素的影响,文盲人群健康风险仍然大于较高学历的人群.年龄和性别因素叠加在学历因素上,可能加大低学历人群的健康风险,对于这部分叠加了自然因素和社会因素双重敏感性的人群应给与重点关注.     

舟山渔场有色溶解有机物(CDOM)的三维荧光-平行因子分析

利用三维荧光光谱(EEMs)-平行因子分析(PARAFAC)技术研究春季舟山渔场有色溶解有机物(CDOM)的荧光成分组成、分布特征及来源.PARAFAC模型解析出舟山渔场CDOM由2类5个荧光组分组成,即类腐殖质成分C1(330/420 nm)、C2[(290)365/440 nm]、C3[(260)370/490 nm]及类蛋白质成分C4(285/340 nm)、C5(270/310 nm).5种荧光组分的平面分布模式基本一致,在各层均呈现由近岸海域向远岸海域逐渐减小的趋势,但各层又略有差别.表层高值区出现在杭州湾口外北部海域、虾峙门航道口外海域,且杭州湾口外北部海域的荧光值要高于虾峙门航道口外海域;中层高值出现区域与表层相同,但杭州湾口外北部海域的荧光值要低于虾峙门航道口外海域;底层从近岸向远岸梯度减小,高值区出现在舟山本岛附近海域.各荧光组分的分布与盐度之间存在明显负相关关系,与叶绿素a的线性关系不明显.分析表明,春季舟山渔场CDOM表、中层主要受长江输入和舟山工农业等人为活动排放影响,而底层主要受舟山工农业等人为活动排放影响.从垂直分布模式上,CDOM在30°N断面上由中、表层水体向底层呈现逐渐减小的趋势,并在近岸和远岸海域都出现了高值区,且与盐度低值区、叶绿素a高值区相对应,反映该断面近岸区CDOM主要受长江输入影响,远岸区CDOM主要受生物活动影响;在30°N断面,CDOM分布模式与30.5°N断面基本类似,只是在近岸区域底层出现CDOM高值区,可能是由于潮汐、底层上升流等物理外力作用下,沉积物间隙水中高浓度的CDOM释放出来,使得靠近沉积物界面的底层水体中CDOM浓度升高.5种荧光组分中,C1、C3、C4之间相关性较强,与C2、C5相关性相对较弱,说明C1、C3、C4在来源上具有相似性与C2、C5有一定的差异性.春季舟山渔场CDOM腐殖化指数(HIX)的值较小,反映了春季舟山渔场CDOM的腐殖化程度较低,稳定性较差,在环境中存在时间较短;生物指数(BIX)在舟山外海出现高值区,近岸海域出现低值区,反映出在近岸海域人类活动的影响较大,而在外海生物活动的影响较为明显.     

基于平面波导型荧光免疫传感器的双酚A检测适用性研究

双酚A是一种环境内分泌干扰物,逐渐受到国内外广泛关注.平面波导型荧光免疫传感器可以对水样中存在的痕量双酚A进行快速高灵敏度检测.在最优检测条件下测得双酚A标准曲线的检出限为(0.04±0.007)μg·L-1,线性区间为0.16~22.40μg·L-1,半抑制浓度为(1.67±0.47)μg·L-1.加入0.5%的EDTA到样品溶液中可以削弱水体硬度的干扰,并在最优条件下测得4种实际水样的加标回收率在88%~111%之间,相对标准偏差小于15%,表明该方法可以运用于实际水样中双酚A的检测.     

Marine Ecological Research in New Zealand: Developing Predictive Models through the Study of No-Take Marine Reserves

Abstract:  New Zealand established its first no-take marine reserve more than 25 years ago. Twenty no-take marine reserves have now been created, although few of these are considered comparable. We considered whether existing conceptual models of population and community structure based only on data from exploited systems lack the baseline information of natural states necessary to make accurate predictions for new reserves. Three of the oldest and best-studied reserves are situated on the northeastern coast of New Zealand. These reserves are considered broadly comparable replicates, and research has shown the recovery of previously exploited predator populations and the reestablishment of trophic controls over community structure and productivity. None of the major changes was predicted when the reserves were created. All the observations from and experimental tests of hypotheses in these three ecologically comparable reserves have provided predictive models for future reserves. Recent surveys in newly created reserves, however, suggest that these models are bioregion and habitat specific. In these new reserves the recovery of previously exploited predators was predicted but did not always occur. Where trends were correctly predicted, the speed and amplitude of the changes were not accurately predicted. Research in New Zealand suggests that it is not yet possible to predict explicit outcomes for newly created reserves and less possible to predict detailed results for systems of reserves. Results from a representative system of reserves, including all major habitats within all bioregions and broadly comparable reserves, are needed. Such a system will enable the range and variety of natural ecosystem dynamics to be investigated and provide the controls necessary to measure the effects of exploitation.     

Combined molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical study of (+)-multifidene structure and conformation

Molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical tools have been used to explore the conformational space of (+)(3S,4S)-multifidene bioactive compounds. All the computations have been performed in the absence and presence of the solvent, simulated by the explicit introduction of a number of water molecules or by the polarized continuum model (PCM). Three conformational minima, both in vacuo and in water (simulated by PCM tool), have been confirmed at ab initio level of theory (B3LYP and MP2). All minima lie in a very narrow range of energy, and the interconversion between them is possible with a small amount of energy expense.     

Effects of the Surrounding Matrix on Tree Recruitment in Amazonian Forest Fragments

Abstract:  Little is known about how the surrounding modified matrix affects tree recruitment in fragmented forests. We contrasted effects of two different matrix types, Vismia - and Cecropia -dominated regrowth, on recruitment of pioneer tree species in forest fragments in central Amazonia. Our analyses were based on 22, 1-ha plots in seven experimental forest fragments ranging in size from 1 to 100 ha. By 13 to 17 years after fragmentation, the population density of pioneer trees was significantly higher in plots surrounded by Vismia regrowth than in plots surrounded by Cecropia regrowth, and the species composition and dominance of pioneers differed markedly between the two matrix types. Cecropia sciadophylla was the most abundant pioneer in fragments surrounded by Cecropia regrowth (constituting nearly 50% of all pioneer trees), whereas densities of species in Vismia -surrounded fragments were distributed more evenly. Thus the surrounding matrix had a strong influence on patterns of tree recruitment in Amazonian forest fragments.     

Simulation of 137Cs Migration over the Soil–Plant System of Peat Soils Contaminated after the Chernobyl Accident

A mathematical model was constructed to simulate the processes of ¹³⁷Cs migration in peat soils and its uptake by vegetation. Model parameters were assessed and the pattern of ¹³⁷Cs distribution over soil profile was predicted in case of peat soils, which are typical of the Russian regions contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. The ecological half-life of ¹³⁷Cs in the plant-root soil zone was calculated, and a long-term prognosis of the radionuclide uptake by plants was made.