基于瓦斯涌出量预测的近距离煤层群开采顺序优化选择

随着中厚煤层资源的枯竭,近距离薄煤层群开采成为我国资源的重要补充。煤层群开采时合理的采掘部署是防止工作面瓦斯集中涌出的关键,本文通过分析近距离煤层群开采时各回采顺序下工作面瓦斯涌出量,建立了以工作面瓦斯涌出量预测为基础的近距离煤层群开采优化模型,利用计算机编程实现了模型的可视化操作。该模型通过对比分析全部种回采顺序方案,选择整个回采期间瓦斯涌出量最均衡的方案为最优方案。对翔升煤矿进行了实例分析,结果显示合理的回采方案可以使工作面最大瓦斯涌出量大大减小,使整个回采期间工作面瓦斯涌出量趋于均衡。为煤层群开采优化技术中的瓦斯环节提供了理论依据。     

Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming

Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.     

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR KARST AQUIFERS: (1) ESTIMATING KARST CONDUIT-FLOW PARAMETERS

Quantitative ground-water tracing of conduit-dominated karst aquifers allows for reliable and practical interpretation of karst ground-water flow. Insights into the hydraulic geometry of the karst aquifer may be acquired that otherwise could not be obtained by such conventional methods as potentiometric-surface mapping and aquifer testing. Contamination of karst aquifers requires that a comprehensive tracer budget be performed so that karst conduit hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters be obtained. Acquisition of these parameters is necessary for estimating contaminant fate-and-transport. A FORTRAN computer program for estimating total tracer recovery from tracer-breakthrough curves is proposed as a standard method. Estimated hydraulic-flow parameters include mean residence time, mean flow velocity, longitudinal dispersivity, Peclet number, Reynolds number, and Froude number. Estimated geometric parameters include karst conduit sinuous distance, conduit volume, cross-sectional area, diameter, and hydraulic depth. These parameters may be used to (1) develop structural models of the aquifer, (2) improve aquifer resource management, (3) improve ground-water monitoring systems design, (4) improve aquifer remediation, and (5) assess contaminant fate-and-transport. A companion paper demonstrates the use of these hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters in a surface-water model for estimating contaminant fate-and-transport in a karst conduit. Two ground-water tracing studies demonstrate the utility of this program for reliable estimation of necessary karst conduit hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters.     

Climate, entropy and environment

The IPCC Working Groups I–III 2007 publications does not consider the question of the influence of the entropy increase in the atmosphere on current climate development. An investigation into this question, both in general terms as well as by two quantitative approaches, reveals we must consider the entropy produced by man in connection with climate development, especially with regard to the temperature increase of the atmosphere. The IPCC report also fails to mention the production of CO₂ by humans and livestock, but calculations show we must also consider such greenhouse gas CO₂ production. For solving the mitigating processes, we therefore have to take into account both the human induced entropy production and the direct human and livestock CO₂ output. In consideration of these findings, it seems necessary to introduce an “entropy identity” to people who wish to be able to continue to live on the planet. The introduction of an entropy tax might also help in solving the most urgent fundamental problem humanity has ever had to face. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Scenario study for a regional low-carbon society

Japan should undertake drastic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions by the middle of this century in order to mitigate climate change problems. Municipalities should design and execute scenarios toward a low-carbon society suited to their respective regions. This study describes long-term future visions developed for Shiga Prefecture targeting CO₂ emission reductions of 30–50% by 2030, and presents scenarios to attain these targets, which are achievable with mild economic growth. For targets over a 30% reduction, region-specific measures including land-use reform and citizen behavioral changes are necessary. Compared with other regions in Japan, Shiga should give priority to a modal shift in transport, efficiency improvements in industry, and photovoltaic energy generation.     

试论新疆玛纳斯河流域农村经济与环境的现状及发展——对147团场经济与环境发展规划的初步建议

147团场自建场以来,在经济发展中取得了巨大成就,但同时必须看到自然对发展的限制与惩罚。从环境学出发,作者对该场的经济与环境发展规划进行了讨论,分析了农业生态环境的有利和不利条件,提出了发展经济与合理利用环境资源的建议。     

生态红线管控绩效考核技术方案及制度保障研究

基于生态红线管控绩效考核必要性的分析,在尽可能规避目前我国环境绩效考核诸多弊端的前提下,制定了生态红线绩效考核框架及技术方案：从绩效考核主体、客体、考核内容与考核方法等方面完成了生态红线绩效考核框架的构建,确定了考核指标、计量模型和考核标准,并详细探讨了考核程序、考核成果的管理与应用等问题。研究旨在为地方政府实施生态红线管控绩效考核提供支撑。     

基于全生命周期的海洋油气项目集风险管理

为了强化海洋油气项目集的风险管理,以海洋油气田固定区块开发为范围,基于甲方油气田单位和乙方服务单位立场,对项目集进行全生命周期的风险管理;将海洋油气项目集生命周期划分为6个阶段;提出了滚动风险管理模式,给出各阶段风险分解结构和风险应对策略;以时间、成本、质量为控制要素,建立项目整体风险动态评估方法。研究结果表明:通过生命周期6个阶段和整体2级动态迭代风险控制,能更早发现项目集各级过程风险,有助于避免或降低风险事故带来的损失,更有效地保障项目集收益和组织战略实现,可为我国海上油气田开发风险管理提供新参考。     

The Effectiveness of a “Break Experiment” from a Long-Term Perspective

The study reports the results of a follow-up evaluation, conducted in 1994, of the impact of a training program for female unskilled metal workers that was implemented at the end of the 1970s. The program was designed to promote occupational skills development, and was first evaluated in 1979. On both occasions of evaluation the investment in training was examined from two perspectives, those of the training participants and management. Data were collected through semistructured personal interviews with key members of personnel management and through a group conversation session with a majority of the original course attendees. Supplementary background information was obtained from documents and records maintained by the organization. At some points, there was a convergence of views on the significance of the training program for occupational skills development, at others a divergence. These convergences and divergences are finally discussed and the findings of the study are related to other research on this particular kind of intervention.     

力学学科在安全工程专业课程体系中的设置与探讨

在安全工程专业的培养计划中,如何设置力学类课程,使其在安全工程专业各研究分支领域发挥应有的作用,是安全教育工作者所关注和深思的问题。笔者通过调研国内若干大学安全工程专业,力学类基础和专业基础课程的设置情况,对资料与数据的统计分析与对比,认为力学类课程与安全工程技术、职业安全检测技术、劳动保护与器材、安全人机工程等研究方向有紧密关系;提出了力学学科是安全工程和技术科学的重要基础的观点;同时指出力学类课程作为基础和专业基础课,在安全工程专业培养计划中有其重要性;还对安全工程专业各具体分支的力学类课程的设置与教学侧重点提出了建议和探讨。