近距离煤层群叠加开采采动应力与覆岩位移场演化特征

为获得近距离煤层群叠加开采条件下采动应力与覆岩位移场的演化特征,以潘二矿近距离煤层6,7煤层地质条件为背景,采用相似模拟与工程实践相结合的方法进行了研究。结果表明:近距离煤层群叠加开采形成的覆岩宏观运移形态和特征与单一煤层开采相似,叠加开采时,覆岩呈多岩层整体协调运移的规律,具有位移叠加增长效应;7煤层的开采使覆岩起到一定的垫层作用,缓和了矿山压力,使近距离煤层叠加开采时具有应力减弱效应;与开采7煤层相比,6煤层开采过程中,周期来压步距减小,来压时支架载荷减弱,动压系数相应减小,但周期来压时,存在部分岩层发生台阶式下沉的现象。基于近距离煤层群叠加开采研究结果,在近距离煤层群开采的设备选型时,选用了高额定工作阻力的液压支架,在周期来压期间,采取了一定的辅助措施,同时加强了组织管理,生产中没有发生冲击液压支架及其他动力灾害的现象。     

汽车制动系统的匹配设计

通过对汽车制动系统的原理及结构性能的探讨,进一步掌握整车新产品开发设计中制动系统的匹配计算.     

Movement distances enhance validity of predictive models

Including the distance species are able to move in predictive models improves conservation practice. Bird inventory projects carried out from 1993 to 2004 in Taiwan provide an opportunity to investigate the relationships among species distribution, movement distance, and the environment. We compared projected distributions of 17 Taiwanese endemic bird species using what we called the Standard Method (i.e. movement distance is zero) and what we called the Buffer Method (i.e. movement distance is longer than zero) in three presence-only models (GARP, MAXENT and LIVES). The Standard Method used species original occurrence records directly while the Buffer Method expanded the occurrence of species to areas 1 km² around each recorded location. We first tested the efficacy of the Buffer Method using ten common species of the 17, and then applied the method to two rare species of the 17. For both the common and rare species, the distributions predicted by the two methods showed slight but important differences. The Buffer Method for all species had a higher average predictive probability, while the Standard Method had a higher maximum predictive probability. Most of the values for the area under the curve (AUC) were over 0.8 with the exceptions of Taiwan Barbet (Megalaima nuchalis) and Taiwan Hwamei (Garrulax taewanus), which have recently separated from Indochinese Barbet (Megalaima annamensis) and Chinese Hwamei (Garrulax canorus), and since 2008 and 2006 have been regarded as species endemic to the study area. Kappa values showed good performance for all species using both methods. The Buffer Method, however, resulted in significantly higher sensitivity and accuracy values for all models of species (p < 0.05). We conclude that when modeling species distribution including the area where the species was censused along with areas within the minimum movement areas better defines the surrounding areas that might supplement core habitat requirements. Therefore, using the Buffer Method, species surrounding distribution can be obtained which provides a better understanding of the species distributions. Given that distribution size is a key to the conservation of species, we suggest the Buffer Method can be used in conservation planning.     

城市火灾中飞火蔓延距离计算方法研究

飞火是城市火灾特别是城市震后火灾的重要蔓延方式之一,它可以使火灾在相距较远的离散可燃物之间进行跳跃式蔓延,从而增加了扑救难度,威胁扑救人员的安全。因此,对飞火蔓延现象的认识和飞火蔓延距离的计算是降低飞火危险性的前提。基于Baum-McCaffrey火焰羽流模型,重点研究在城市火灾羽流中球形飞火颗粒的上升行为和环境风影响...     

Overview of motorcycling in the United States: a national telephone survey

Objectives

Motorcycle registrations have risen in recent years. Although motorcyclist crash fatalities in 2009 were 16% lower than in 2008, they were double the number of deaths in 1997. The present study examined current motorcyclists’ travel patterns and views of motorcycle helmets and other safety topics.

Methods

Motorcycle drivers were interviewed in a national telephone survey conducted in 2009. A weighted sample of 1,606 motorcyclists resulted from adjusting for the oversampling of those younger than 40 and those in the three states without a motorcycle helmet use law (Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire). All analyses were based on the weighted sample, which was intended to result in a nationally representative sample of motorcyclists.

Results

About one-quarter of respondents said they did not always wear helmets. Of these respondents, 57% said a law requiring helmet use would persuade them to do so, and 27% said nothing would. Ninety-four percent of respondents in states with universal helmet laws said they always ride helmeted, compared with about half of respondents in other states. About half of all respondents favored these laws. About three-quarters said they believe helmets keep riders safer, including two-thirds of respondents who oppose universal laws and almost half of drivers who rarely/never wear helmets. Drivers ages 18–29 and drivers of sport/unclad sport, sport touring, and super sport motorcycles were more likely to always wear helmets, support universal helmet laws, and believe helmets keep riders safer. About half of respondents said antilock braking systems (ABS) enhance safety and that they would get ABS on their next motorcycle. Less than one-quarter thought an airbag would protect a motorcyclist in a crash, and even fewer would consider getting one on their next motorcycle. Forty-three percent of motorcyclists said they had crashed at least once; 62% of the most recent crashes involved no vehicles besides the motorcycle. Respondents reported riding their motorcycles about 5,400 miles, on average, during the past year. Drivers ages 18–29 reported riding fewer miles, on average, than older drivers and more often rode at night and to/from work or school. Drivers of touring and sport touring motorcycles traveled more miles and took more long trips.

Conclusions

Motorcyclists’ travel patterns and views vary widely, but there are distinct patterns by driver age and motorcycle type. Drivers who believe helmets keep riders safer are more likely to always wear them, but this belief appears insufficient to motivate some drivers to wear them. However, universal helmet laws appear effective in increasing helmet use. Many drivers are receptive to purchasing ABS on their next motorcycle.

Impact on industry

States should be encouraged to enact universal helmet laws, and motorcycle manufacturers should be encouraged to offer ABS.     

碳排放交易制度下城市减排的机会成本研究——基于中国碳排放试点城市的实证检验

作为全球气候治理的重要手段,碳排放交易制度受到了广泛的关注与讨论。基于此,本文采用我国2010-2016年城市面板数据,运用非参数方法构建方向性环境距离函数测算了2009-2015年城市减排的机会成本,计算结果显示,试点地区与非试点地区的碳排放的机会成本整体表现为上升的趋势,且试点地区的碳排放的机会成本总体低于非试点地区。在测算城市减排机会成本的基础上,运用双重差分法来检验碳排放交易制度的有效性。经检验发现：碳排放交易制度有利于降低城市减排的机会成本,然而由于碳排放交易制度还存在碳排放权初始分配制度缺失、碳排放交易制度的定价机制扭曲等问题,因此其对降低城市减排的机会成本作用较小,并且进一步通过对政策时间趋势的分析得出政策效应随时间推移而逐渐减弱。     

北京市空气质量及其与能源消费结构的动态关联

运用模糊集理论中的Euclidean权距离评价2002—2011年北京市空气质量。根据最大隶属度原则确定空气质量等级值,结合灰色系统理论中的关联动态矩阵分析法,研究北京市主要大气污染物与9种能源消费因子的动态关系。结果表明,2002、2004—2007年北京市空气质量处于Ⅲ级,2003、2008—2011年处于Ⅱ级,空气质量由劣到优的年份排序为2002、2011、2010、2006、2007、2009、2008、2005、2004、2003年,2003、2008年空气质量得到改善,2009年以来有所恶化;燃料油、焦炭和煤炭是造成北京市大气污染的前3位能源,天然气是最清洁的能源;同种能源与不同污染物的关联程度相似;同种能源与污染物在不同时间段的关联序基本不变,不同能源因子分别表现出"缓慢上升"、"逐渐升高"、"水平S"型和"倒U"型4种态势;燃料油与大气污染物"同增同减",大气污染物与燃料油正相关;天然气与大气污染物"此涨彼消",天然气与大气污染物负相关。     

功能区排放负荷污染系数百分比分配法研究

在考虑了总量控制区风频、风速和各功能区位置及污染源“影响范围”等影响因素的条件下，提出了“平均下风距离”的概念，从而建立了一种更为科学、合理的总量控制区内功能区排放负荷分配新方法。通过与 总量控制A值法所提出的面积分配方法相比较，验证了新方法的合理性和有效性。     

碳中和背景下欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国的影响及对策分析

在全球碳中和的新形势下,欧盟委员会于2021年7月正式提出“碳边境调节机制”（CBAM）立法提案,并计划于2023年起实施。本文在总结立法提案关键要素的基础上,着重分析欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性,研判可能对我国产生的潜在影响,并从国际国内层面提出对策建议。分析发现,欧盟采取“名义”碳市场的形式,初期将覆盖水泥、电力、化肥、钢铁和铝等5个行业,只核算产品生产过程的直接排放,暂不考虑间接排放,2023—2025年是过渡期,2026年开始正式实施。欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性面临诸多挑战：不符合世界贸易组织国民待遇原则和最惠国待遇原则,但存在满足关税与贸易总协定例外条款的可能性;违反国际气候治理的共同但有区别的责任原则、公平原则和各自能力原则,也不符合公约关于国际贸易歧视或变相限制的条款;对解决碳泄漏问题和保护本土竞争力的作用有限;产品隐含碳核算和碳价确定是技术难点问题。影响评估发现,欧盟CBAM将使我国受影响部门的对欧出口总额降低11%～13%,出口成本增加1亿～3.05亿美元,其中约四分之三的成本将由钢铁行业承担,对贸易隐含碳的下降作用有待进一步考量;此外,欧盟CBAM将会影响多边国际...     

红外系统对点源目标作用距离的优化计算

作用距离是红外系统核心性能指标之一,受大气、背景等多方面因素的影响。针对传统作用距离计算方法存在的局限,综合考虑多个影响因素,提出了一种优化计算方法,首次精确计算了作用距离与实际距离之差的大气衰减值,并对计算方法进行了验证。结果表明,优化计算方法具有较好的计算精度,可用于红外系统性能预测和整体设计。