Benefits of integrating complementarity into priority threat management

Conservation decision tools based on cost‐effectiveness analysis are used to assess threat management strategies for improving species persistence. These approaches rank alternative strategies by their benefit to cost ratio but may fail to identify the optimal sets of strategies to implement under limited budgets because they do not account for redundancies. We devised a multiobjective optimization approach in which the complementarity principle is applied to identify the sets of threat management strategies that protect the most species for any budget. We used our approach to prioritize threat management strategies for 53 species of conservation concern in the Pilbara, Australia. We followed a structured elicitation approach to collect information on the benefits and costs of implementing 17 different conservation strategies during a 3‐day workshop with 49 stakeholders and experts in the biodiversity, conservation, and management of the Pilbara. We compared the performance of our complementarity priority threat management approach with a current cost‐effectiveness ranking approach. A complementary set of 3 strategies: domestic herbivore management, fire management and research, and sanctuaries provided all species with >50% chance of persistence for $4.7 million/year over 20 years. Achieving the same result cost almost twice as much ($9.71 million/year) when strategies were selected by their cost‐effectiveness ranks alone. Our results show that complementarity of management benefits has the potential to double the impact of priority threat management approaches.     

Optimization of facility location and reallocation in an industrial plant through a multi-annual framework accounting for economic and safety issues

The industrial layout traditionally has been addressed accounting for the facilities distribution and installation since the first day of operation of the plant; this is, without considering future expansions that involve additional facilities in the future operation years. This way, this paper proposes a mathematical programming formulation for the optimal facility sitting and reallocation in an industry accounting for future expansions and involving simultaneously economic and safety objectives. The proposed formulation is based on a multi-annual framework and this corresponds to a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming problem. The proposed optimization approach was applied to a case study for the facility sitting (office buildings and control rooms) in an ethylene oxide plant. The economic objective function involves the minimization of the total annual cost accounting for the value of the money through the time and the safety objective function involves the minimization for the accumulated risk over the operation time. Results show the applicability of the proposed approach.     

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive‐species management

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive‐species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost‐effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive‐species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive‐species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty‐four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty‐five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision‐making processes that guide invasive‐species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.     

双风机并联机站局阻特性研究

为探究双风机并联机站局部阻力特性、完善机站局部阻力及其系数的计算公式,以实际矿井通风机站为工程背景,在分析机站流场能量损失机理的基础上,采用物理模型实验和数值计算相结合的方法,分析了机站入口分流、出口汇流的断面速度不均匀程度与机站阻力损失的关系,同时对不同宽高比的矩形断面进行多工况模拟。结果表明:断面速度不均匀性越大,速度分布重组造成的阻力损失越大;确定了机站局阻计算所需参数的合理测定位置,得出机站局阻系数计算时的综合影响系数Kc随风机工况增大而增大、随断面宽高比A增大而减小,并呈现较好的线性关系。研究结果可为多级机站通风系统通风阻力特性分析以及工程优化设计提供参考。     

基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道影响计算及风险预测

为研究基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道的影响以及预测隧道结构的风险,通过改进的计算方法得到放坡开挖基坑引起下方既有地铁隧道的竖向和横向附加荷载、位移、相对变形曲率共6个隧道结构安全的物理表现因子;将位移计算结果与前人理论计算结果、实测数据对比验证,并分析各土层物理力学参数对6个因子的敏感性;最后,基于正态分布概率模型对较敏感的土层物理力学参数随机取值,利用蒙特卡罗方法计算6个因子各级风险发生的概率和竖向、横向2类因子综合影响下隧道结构各级风险发生的总概率。研究结果表明:与原来仅限于矩形开挖基坑的计算方法相比,改进后的计算方法适用范围更广、实用性更强;在算例二分析中,隧道竖向位移和相对变形曲率超过控制值的概率分别为12%和68.7%,其余因子均为0,隧道竖向相对变形曲率是隧道结构处于不安全状态的最主要因子;若不采取预防措施,隧道结构将有高达73.27%的概率处于不安全状态,其中有68.7%的概率处于很不安全状态。     

基于GPR-TOPSIS方法的充填配比多目标多属性优化

为获得某金矿尾砂胶结充填材料最优配比,基于试验结果,以海水比例、灰砂比和料浆质量浓度为输入参数,以充填体强度、塌落度及泌水率为输出参数,建立了充填配比与其响应量的高斯过程回归模型,分析了不同因素对充填性能的影响程度;采用遗传算法对高斯过程回归模型进行多目标参数优化,获得了Pareto非劣解,在此基础上,引入多属性决策的TOPSIS法对Pareto非劣解进行方案优选,确定了充填最优配比。研究结果表明:高斯过程回归模型相对误差值均小于6%,可靠性高;灰砂比及料浆质量浓度对充填性能影响较为显著,采用海水作为充填水源将降低充填体的强度;经优化后的充填配比与试验结果相符。     

基于情景构建的应急预案体系优化策略及方法

为了进一步优化我国现有应急预案体系,从应急管理实践中分析梳理出4方面问题,包括:“在指导理念上依然没有充分体现应急准备的理念”“应急预案体系在微观、中观和宏观层面依然存在结构性问题”“应急预案的内容存在‘概念性’内容较多的情况,导致操作性和针对性不强”“预案动态管理滞后,持续改进机制尚未形成”;针对现存问题,提出基于情景构建的优化策略和方法,认为“情景构建”不但可以指导编制者分析应急需求、明确应急目标、规划应急程序,有效支撑应急预案的编制,而且可以派生出“基于情景链条的预案衔接策略”“基于任务协同的预案衔接策略”“基于资源约束的预案衔接策略”,进而从微观层面上推进预案体系的优化。研究结果可以作为各级政府和企业应急预案体系构建的参考和借鉴。     

气固两相流90°弯管抗冲蚀结构优化

为了提高天然气输送管道90°弯管的耐磨性能,提出了1种三段弯曲式弯管,通过对弯管弯曲段进行三段式改进来减小弯管中二次流的大小,优化弯管内的流场,改善弯管的冲蚀磨损状况。利用COMSOL仿真软件建立三段式弯管模型,并以弯管弯曲段和出口段二次流平均值之和最小为优化目标,在约束条件下凭借COMSOL中的COBYLA优化算法得到了最优管形;用Fluent对优化后的三段式弯管进行冲蚀数值模拟并与一段式弯管的模拟结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:与一段式90°弯管相比,优化后的三段式弯管流场更加平稳,其弯曲段的二次流强度大幅降低,弯管壁面的冲蚀磨损程度得到较大的改善。     

River water quality management model using genetic algorithm

Conventional mathematical programming methods, such as linear programming, non linear programming, dynamic programming and integer programming have been used to solve the cost optimization problem for regional wastewater treatment systems. In this study, a river water quality management model was developed through the integration of a genetic algorithm (GA). This model was applied to a river system contaminated by three determined discharge sources to achieve the water quality goals and wastewater treatment cost optimization in the river basin. The genetic algorithm solution, described the treatment plant efficiency, such that the cost of wastewater treatment for the entire river basin is minimized while the water quality constraints in each reach are satisfied. This study showed that genetic algorithm can be applied for river water quality modeling studies as an alternative to the present methods.     

天津市机动车污染评估方法

依据城市机动车空气污染评价方法确立了天津市空气污染物机动车污染的评价体系。该评价体系具有准确性、先进性和实用性，采用科学的方法估算天津市城区机动车排气污染物的排放浓度及总量对环境空气污染的分担率。科学地给出了天津市现阶段机动车污染的现状及发展趋势，为环境保护决策提供了科学依据。