水资源转移利用的利益补偿测算：模型构建与应用

水资源转移利用的利益补偿不仅关系到水资源重新配置的效率和效益的实现,同样还关系到不同用水主体之间利益的公平共享和资源的可持续利用。为科学合理地测算不同用水主体之间水资源转移利用的利益补偿额度,构建了水资源转移利用利益补偿测算模型。该模型综合考虑了合作贡献、资源投入、用水效率、风险承担和社会公正等因素对收益分配的影响,并运用粗糙层次分析法（RAHP）来确定各种指标的权重,然后在此基础上对用水收益分配和利益补偿进行测算。最后,通过诸暨陈石灌区用水转移的实例应用验证了该模型的可行性和科学有效性。同时实例研究表明实践中的农业用水主体没有充分分享到因水资源转移利用而产生的增加收益,亟待提高农业节水主体应得的利益补偿额,保障农民利益。     

基于CLUE-S和灰色线性规划的嘉兴北部土地利用优化配置研究

构建基于CLUE-S与灰色线性规划混合模型的土地利用优化配置方法,在导入区域政策、社会经济、生态目标和土地利用现状等条件下,进行土地利用数量结构与空间布局的统一优化,并以嘉兴北部地区为例进行实证研究,共设置现状趋势情景、规划目标情景和规划可持续情景这3种模拟情景.规划可持续情景侧重社会经济环境效益,故对建设用地快速增长和农用地持续减少起到明显调控作用,可实现生态敏感区环境和粮食安全的双重保护,是理想的土地利用优化方案.CLUE-S模型与灰色线性规划的耦合能够兼顾现状条件和区域发展目标,模拟土地利用的数量和空间变化,是解决土地资源优化配置问题的有效方法.     

杂合抗菌肽LPCB在毕赤酵母中的表达条件优化

为获取能表达具有天然活性的杂合抗菌肽的重组酵母菌,确定其最佳表达条件,将构建好的重组酵母表达载体pPICZα-A-CecropinB(1～10)-Magainin2(1～12)(简称pPICZα-A-CBMA)和pPICZα-A-Lfcin-Pro-CecropinB(简称pPICZα-A-LPCB)经SacⅠ线性化处理,分别电转入巴斯德毕赤酵母Pichia pastoris X-33,利用抗生素Zeocin筛选阳性克隆,PCR扩增验证,甲醇诱导表达.采用抑菌圈法初步测定产物活性,优化杂合肽LPCB诱导时间、诱导剂浓度、诱导温度、培养基pH等表达条件,传代检测其质粒稳定性.结果显示,基因工程菌P.pastoris X-33/pPICZα-A-CBMA和P.pastoris X-33/pPICZα-A-LPCB成功构建.表达产物前者抑菌活性微弱,后者抑菌活性良好.杂合肽LPCB的最佳表达条件为:25℃,pH中性培养,每24 h添加0.5%(V/V,φ)甲醇,诱导表达72 h.重组酵母菌pPICZα-A-LPCB在培养超过100代后,未发生质粒丢失.     

Threshold management in a coupled economic–ecological system

Economic analysis of optimal ecosystem management in the presence of a threshold has typically ignored the potential for induced behavioral responses. This paper contributes to the literature on non-convex ecosystem management by considering the implications of a particular behavioral response in a regional economy – that of amenity-led growth – to changes in ecosystem services generated by a lake ecosystem subject to a eutrophication threshold. The essential policy challenge is to achieve optimal levels of lake nutrients and urbanization given that improvements to water quality will induce additional migration and urbanization in the region with attendant ecological impacts. We show that policies that ignore the recursive relationship between urbanization and water quality unintentionally exacerbate boom-bust cycles of regional growth and decline and risk pushing the system towards long-run economic decline. In contrast, the optimal policy accounts for the behavioral feedbacks to improved ecosystem services, and balances regional growth and ecological degradation.     

Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

A flaw of demand coverage method in solving optimal monitoring stations problem under multiple demand patterns was identified in this paper. In the demand coverage method, the demand coverage of each set of monitoring stations is calculated by accumulating their demand coverage under each demand pattern, and the impact of temporal distribution between different time periods or demand patterns is ignored. This could lead to miscalculation of the optimal locations of the monitoring stations. To overcome this flaw, this paper presents a Demand Coverage Index (DCI) based method. The optimization considers extended period unsteady hydraulics due to the change of nodal demands with time. The method is cast in a genetic algorithm framework for integration with Environmental Protection Agency Net (EPANET) and is demonstrated through example applications. Results show that the set of optimal locations of monitoring stations obtained using the DCI method can represent the water quality of water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns better than the one obtained using previous methods.     

小型生活垃圾填埋场设计洪水计算方法的选择

以甘肃省静宁县威戎镇生活垃圾填埋场为例,对目前在计算小型生活垃圾填埋场洪峰流量时通常采用的几种方法进行了比较及合理性分析。研究认为,对于上游汇水面积为特小流域的小型生活垃圾填埋场,设计洪水的防洪标准应按照50年一遇设计、100年一遇校核,按照有、无降雨资料推荐了合理的计算公式,为小型生活垃圾填埋场设计洪水计算方法的确定提供了参考。     

沉降土体对管道跨越结构应力影响的分析

为了更好地保障长输管道的安全稳定运行,针对长输管道当中的跨越结构进行了应力分析与计算。基于管道跨越结构其结构的特殊性,极容易受到断层、土体塌陷等地质灾害的影响。因此建立了跨越段埋地管道与土壤相互作用的有限元力学模型,分析了30°、40°、50°、60°跨越结构和不同范围土体发生沉降时,管道的应力变化情况。结果显示,当跨越结构中斜管段的角度确定后,便可计算出相应的安全沉降长度;当斜管段角度为50°时,沉降长度控制在13.6m以内,可保证跨越结构不发生塑性变形。通过研究为管道跨越段的安全设计提供了理论依据,该方法可应用在类似的管道跨越结构的应力设计当中。     

基于小波分解及遗传BPNN耦合模型的地表水As浓度预测研究

随着工业的快速发展,水体中污染物超标事件时有发生,造成了较严重的水环境污染问题.水环境监测与预报是环境科学研究的重要内容.为了实现地表水砷（As）污染的准确预报,本研究提出小波分解、遗传算法与BP人工神经网络的耦合建模方法,并结合某河流监测站1998—2016年共19年的地表水质监测数据,通过皮尔逊相关系数和信息指标评价法对模型输入变量进行筛选,最后对比分析了在不同水质参数输入情况下BP人工神经网络（BPNN）、遗传算法改进的BPNN（GABP）、小波-遗传BPNN耦合模型（W-GABP）对后6年（2011—2016年） As浓度预测结果的均方根误差（RMSE）、决定系数（R²）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）,以确立最优模型.结果表明：①多水质参数BPNN、GABP与W-GABP耦合模型预测结果的MAPE分别为17.51%、15.98%、14.46%,单水质参数BPNN、GABP与W-GABP耦合模型预测结果的MAPE分别为18.78%、16.74%、7.83%;②小波分解数据前处理及遗传算法均能较大程度地提高预测模型的精度;③对于地表水水质预报,需对比不同模型在不同输入变量下的预测结果,以获得最佳的预测精度.单水质参数输入的W-GABP耦合模型能较准确地预报地表水As浓度的变化情况,对数据缺乏地区水质监控和地表水As污染防治具有重要意义.     

基于EMD-MFOA-ELM的瓦斯涌出量时变序列预测研究

为准确分析工作面绝对瓦斯涌出量的非平稳特征,实现瓦斯涌出量的准确预测,基于经验模态分解(EMD)、修正的果蝇优化算法(MFOA)和极限学习机(ELM)基本原理,构建瓦斯涌出量的EMD-MFOA-ELM多尺度时变预测模型。通过EMD将瓦斯涌出量时变序列进行深层次分解,获得多尺度本征模态函数(IMF);采用MFOA-ELM对各IMF时变序列建立动态预测模型,等权叠加各预测值,得到模型最终预测结果。以晋煤某矿瓦斯涌出量监测时序样本为例进行研究分析,结果表明:EMD能充分挖掘出监测数据隐含信息,有效降低数据复杂度;该模型预测相对误差为0.024 3%~0.651 0%,平均值仅为0.252 6%,预测精度和泛化能力高于未经EMD分解模型,能很好地适用于非平稳时变序列预测。     

A new approach for layout optimization in maintenance workshops with safety factors: The case of a gas transmission unit

In this study, an Integrated Simulation-Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is presented for optimum facility layout of maintenance workshop in a gas transmission unit. The process of repair of incoming parts includes various operations on different facilities. The layout problem in this system involves determining the optimum location of all maintenance shop facilities. Layout optimization plays a crucial role in this type of problems in terms of increasing the efficiency of main production line. Standard types of layouts including U, S, W, Z and straight lines are considered. First, the maintenance workshop is modeled with discrete-event-simulation. Time in system, average waiting time, average machine utilization, average availability of facilities, average queue length of facilities (AL) and average operator utilization are obtained from simulation as key performance indicators (KPIs) of DEA. Also, safety index and number of operators are considered as other KPIs. Finally, a unified non-radial Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is presented with respect to the stated KPIs to rank all layouts alternatives and to identify the best configuration. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to validate and verify the results. Previous studies do not consider safety factor in layout design problems. This is the first study that presents an integrated approach for identification of optimum layout in a maintenance workshop of gas transmission unit by incorporating safety and conventional factors.