危险品事故泄漏模糊路网应急资源优化研究

当危险品大规模泄漏事故发生后,应急物资快速配送对于减轻危险品对人员伤害和挽救损失有重要意义。首先从损毁路网修复和救援物资2个方面建立双层模型,从有限物资分配修复损毁路网和救援上进行优化分配,并通过路径优化时间最短分配物资,使应急救援系统的损失最小化。利用宽容分层的方法对模型进行求解,求解最优的物资分配和运输路径方案。最后利用算例,对模型和算法进行检验,找出需要修复受损路网中关键路段。     

Incorporating Uncertainty of Management Costs in Sensitivity Analyses of Matrix Population Models

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental‐management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population‐management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost‐efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making.     

The costs of avoiding environmental impacts from shale‐gas surface infrastructure

Growing energy demand has increased the need to manage conflicts between energy production and the environment. As an example, shale‐gas extraction requires substantial surface infrastructure, which fragments habitats, erodes soils, degrades freshwater systems, and displaces rare species. Strategic planning of shale‐gas infrastructure can reduce trade‐offs between economic and environmental objectives, but the specific nature of these trade‐offs is not known. We estimated the cost of avoiding impacts from land‐use change on forests, wetlands, rare species, and streams from shale‐energy development within leaseholds. We created software for optimally siting shale‐gas surface infrastructure to minimize its environmental impacts at reasonable construction cost. We visually assessed sites before infrastructure optimization to test whether such inspection could be used to predict whether impacts could be avoided at the site. On average, up to 38% of aggregate environmental impacts of infrastructure could be avoided for 20% greater development costs by spatially optimizing infrastructure. However, we found trade‐offs between environmental impacts and costs among sites. In visual inspections, we often distinguished between sites that could be developed to avoid impacts at relatively low cost (29%) and those that could not (20%). Reductions in a metric of aggregate environmental impact could be largely attributed to potential displacement of rare species, sedimentation, and forest fragmentation. Planners and regulators can estimate and use heterogeneous trade‐offs among development sites to create industry‐wide improvements in environmental performance and do so at reasonable costs by, for example, leveraging low‐cost avoidance of impacts at some sites to offset others. This could require substantial effort, but the results and software we provide can facilitate the process.     

蛙跳算法优化的地下水质评价的参数化组合算子模型

传统的参数化多元组合算子模型在进行对数变换后,采用最小二乘法求解模型参数。在满足构建的优化目标函数条件下,直接用基于群集智能的混合蛙跳算法对参数化组合算子模型中的参数进行优化,避免了传统解法过程中需要进行的对数变换,因而使参数求解变得简化。改进后的参数化组合算子模型被应用于地下水水质评价,其评价结果与用其他多种方法的评价结果基本一致。从而表明:混合蛙跳算法优化得出的地下水水质评价参数化组合算子模型为地下水水质评价提供了一种简便和实用的新方法。     

基于相关系数优化法的河流突发污染源项识别

基于相关系数优化法,结合地表水环境特征和污染物水质过程特征,推导出一维河道中单点源瞬时排放的源项反演算法,得到了污染源排放特征与河流环境特征参数的反演公式.采用假想算例进行数值试验,综合分析了流速信息、污染物衰减、监测距离、监测数据误差及中间参数?T选取等因素对反演结果的影响,确定了该方法的适用条件和最优条件的寻找方式.间隔10min进行两次监测采样,若监测误差小于5%,反演结果的相关系数达到-0.97,污染源位置和排放量反演结果的相对误差均小于4%,综合相对误差在2%以内.并且方法具有监测布点简单高效,数据需求低,编程简单等优点,值得在环境应急管理中进行实际应用.     

·OH自由基介导2,4-二氯酚光降解机理及产物毒性变化特征的理论研究

由于2,4-二氯酚(2,4-dichlorophenol,简称2,4-DCP)具有"三致"作用及潜在的生态风险,其光化学降解机理及产物的生态毒理效应目前成为人们关注的焦点。本研究采用理论化学计算手段,系统阐明了2,4-DCP在水环境中·OH介导的间接光化学转化机理、动力学和转化产物的生态毒性变化特征。结果表明2,4-DCP很容易被·OH氧化降解,其降解主要通过·OH-加成和H-迁移路径进行。在低温条件下·OH-加成路径将占主导,主要形成4,6-二氯苯-1,3-二酚;而当温度超过313 K时,·OH提取酚羟基上的氢原子为主要降解途径,主要形成2-氯苯-对苯醌。尤其在活性物种浓度较低的高温环境中,H-迁移路径有可能生成二噁英。计算毒理学结果表明:H-迁移产物的水生毒性超过·OH-加成产物,甚至超出母体2,4-DCP一个毒性等级。因此,我们建议在以后的环境监测以及风险评估过程中,关注2,4-DCP及其转化产物特别是H-迁移路径的转化产物的生态毒理学问题。     

环洞庭湖区水资源供需系统仿真及优化决策研究

论文运用系统分析的理论与方法,分析环洞庭湖区水资源供需系统的特征和各要素之间的相互作用,建立水资源供需系统模型,仿真模拟传统发展模式、发展经济型模式、节水型模式和协调型模式等四种不同情景下,2010-2030年环洞庭湖区水资源供需变化趋势.结果表明:①随着经济的发展和人口的增长,环洞庭湖区水资源供需矛盾十分突出;②在协调型模式下,模拟期末环洞庭湖区总需水量达到159.1×10⁸ m³,供需缺口最大值出现在2020年,为1.9×10⁸ m³,到2030年水资源供给能力约有3.6×10⁸ m³富余,模拟期内水资源供给基本能够满足社会经济发展的需求,且能够获得最大的综合效益,是环洞庭湖区水资源开发利用的最佳方案;③为了达到预期目标,还需增强节水意识、完善用水管理、优化经济结构,加大水利投入和环境整治,提高节水技术水平和水利保障水平.     

区域复合型大气污染调控模型研究

区域复合型大气污染是我国当前面临的主要环境问题之一,为了对其开展经济、有效的调控,本研究提出了一套适用于区域复合型大气污染环境容量规划和污染调控方案优化的线性规划模型.该模型针对区域复合型大气污染特征,可以同时处理多种一次污染和二次污染因子,综合考虑污染控制技术措施对于多种污染物的治理或去除效果、采用“差距闭合法”确定环境质量控制目标并建立软边界约束条件,以提高模型结果的合理性和可行性.在综合考虑多因子环境目标、污染控制经济技术条件以及环境管理要求等多种约束条件下,寻求区域污染控制措施费用最小的控制方案.案例研究结果表明,模型合理、有效,具有较好的推广应用价值.     

不同反胶束体系萃取纤维素酶的条件优化对比研究

采用3种不同的表面活性剂双(2-乙基己基)磺基琥珀酸钠AOT、十六烷基三甲基溴化铵CTAB及鼠李糖脂RL)溶于正己醇/异辛烷相构建不同的反胶束体系,并对比研究了不同反胶束体系萃取纤维素酶的优化条件.分别探讨了水相pH值、表面活性剂浓度、离子强度和离子种类对纤维素酶萃取效率的影响.实验结果如下:在实验条件下,AOT、CTAB和RL 3种反胶束体系水相最佳pH值分别为3.0、8.0和3.0;表面活性剂最佳浓度依次为:AOT 23.7mmol/L、CTAB 15mmol/L和RL 2.75mmol/L;水相中NaCl浓度会影响纤维素酶的萃取率,3种表面活性剂构建的反胶束体系萃取纤维素酶的萃取率均随着盐离子浓度的增大而降低;水相中离子种类也会影响纤维素酶的萃取率.比较不同反胶束体系在最佳条件下萃取纤维素酶的最佳萃取率:CTAB>AOT>RL.     

太湖流域农村生活源产排污系数测算的相关方法及问题分析

以第1次全国污染源普查为背景,针对太湖流域农村生活源产排污系数测算过程中监测点的设置、监测采样和数据分析等问题进行重点分析.基于自然环境分区与经济收入水平分级和突出重点、合理布局的原则设置太湖上游监测点,划分6个类型区共计15个监测点,分有下水和无下水农户2种情况进行监测点建设;具体分析了农村生活污水和生活垃圾的采样步骤,并设计了生活污水、垃圾现场采样记录表,以利于数据记录和分析处理的标准化;依据Grubbs准则和Dixon准则进行监测数据结果的数理统计,选取Grubbs准则进行监测数据最大值或最小值的异常值检验.