武汉城市圈产业发展的空间优化

武汉城市圈是指以武汉市为中心,包括黄石、鄂州、黄冈、孝感、咸宁、仙桃、潜江和天门等周边8市共同组成的城市密集区。该区域具有悠久的产业发展传统,其历史轨迹可分为3个阶段：第一阶段（1840~1949）为产业发展起步时期,第二阶段（1949~1994）为产业结构强化时期,第三阶段（1994~）为产业体系调整时期;与此相适应,区域产业的部门结构和空间结构均呈现典型的集中特征,以2003年区域制造业的增加值为指标,武汉市的空间集中度为50.5％,前10类制造业的产业集中度为60.6％。据此,目前的武汉城市圈是一个松散的“经济联邦”,但存在区域整合的产业、空间和创新基础。以2001~2004年武汉城市圈9城市的统计资料为基础,以制造业分行业的年均增加值和增长率为指标,计算和分析其区域产业发展潜力,结果表明：以钢铁、汽车和电子及通讯设备制造业等为依托,构建区域集群网络,能够充分发挥武汉市的产业组织和创新扩散功能。武汉城市圈应进一步调整产业发展思路,坚持创新驱动路径,通过完善集群网络规划、强化区域空间关联和引导产业集聚发展等政策措施,有效推动具有区域竞争优势的特色产业发展。     

体育馆中人员安全疏散的仿真分析

针对现今公共活动中的人群踩踏事故频发问题,应用计算机仿真技术研究紧急情况下建筑物中人群逃生规律及设施优化方法。设置人员体质、移动余值、出口逃生条件等因素,扩展元胞自动机(CA)行人流模型。利用Matlab语言实现可视化模拟。对莱阳市某体育馆进行人流疏散模拟,分析得到其安全设施的最佳设定参数,实现优化目的。结果表明:该体育馆仿真疏散完成总时间为103.5 s,可引发踩踏事故的疏散危险期长达49.0 s,疏散危险期长度为判断踩踏事故发生可能性的重要指标;出口宽度、数量均与疏散时间呈负相关,且均存在疏散能力饱和点。据此提出将宽度改建为2.5 m、数量增加到6个的优化方案,此方案疏散危险期为9.0 s,疏散总时间缩短到33.5 s。     

校车儿童安全气囊安全性仿真分析

为提高校车乘员约束系统在正面碰撞中对儿童乘员的保护效果,提出一种新型主动式校车儿童安全气囊。运用多刚体动力学分析软件MADYMO建立包括地板、前后排座椅、安全带与第5百分位女性假人在内的校车乘员正面碰撞仿真模型,通过台车试验结果验证模型的准确性。在此基础上,建立主动式安全气囊模型,研究其对12岁和6岁乘员的保护效果。用正交试验方法,分析气囊设计参数,针对12岁乘员进行气囊优化。结果表明:头部气囊的厚度及排气孔大小对乘员伤害影响最大。与原始约束系统相比,经优化后的气囊使12岁乘员的头部、胸部和颈部伤害分别下降84.5%,19%和84.3%,同时加装气囊对6岁儿童也有一定的保护效果。     

Cost‐Effective Placement of Best Management Practices in a Watershed: Lessons Learned from Conservation Effects Assessment Project

This article reviews the key, cross‐cutting findings concerning watershed‐scale cost‐effective placement of best management practices (BMPs) emerging from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) competitive grants watershed studies. The synthesis focuses on two fundamental aspects of the cost‐effectiveness problem: (1) how to assess the location‐ and farmer‐specific costs of BMP implementation, and (2) how to decide on which BMPs need to be implemented and where within a given watershed. Major lessons learned are that (1) data availability remains a significant limiting factor in capturing within‐watershed BMP cost variability; (2) strong watershed community connections help overcome the cost estimation challenges; (3) detailing cost components facilitates the transferability of estimates to alternative locations and/or economic conditions; and (4) implicit costs vary significantly across space and farmers. Furthermore, CEAP studies showed that (5) evolutionary algorithms provide workable ways to identify cost‐effective BMP placements; (6) tradeoffs between total conservation costs and watershed‐scale cost‐effective water quality improvements are commonly large; (7) quality baseline information is essential to solving cost‐effectiveness problem; and (8) systemic and modeling uncertainties alter cost‐effective BMP placements considerably.     

Safety-based process plant layout using genetic algorithm

This paper presents a method based on a genetic algorithm for optimizing process plant layout. The relative location of main process units is determined to minimize an annual cost function including the cost of material transfer between process units (piping and pumping costs), land cost, and the expected annual loss resulting from damage to each secondary unit caused by primary accidents occurring in nearby process units. This method is an improvement over previous attempts using genetic algorithms or mathematical programming techniques to optimize plant layout, which neglected pumping costs and included safety issues by evaluating the infringement of predefined safety distances only. In this approach the operating cost of material transfer is included and the likelihood of accidents is taken into account thus providing good practical solutions to the plant layout problem incorporating more realistic cost functions and constraints. In the paper, after discussing the structure of the annual cost function and describing the working logic of the layout generating algorithm, a case study is described to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

A hybrid machine learning model for predicting crater width formed by explosions of natural gas pipelines

Despite the existence of industry models for estimating the crater width formed by the explosion of natural gas pipelines, their applicability is still limited since the complex formation mechanisms. In this work, a novel hybrid model was developed to predict crater width formed by explosions of natural gas pipelines, using artificial neural networks (ANN) as the fundamental predictor. Based on the historical accident records, the proposed hybrid model was trained by the pipeline parameter, the operating condition, the installation parameter, and the crater width. A novel nature-inspired optimization algorithm, i.e., the Lévy-Weighted Quantum particle swarm optimization (LWQPSO) algorithm, was proposed to optimize the ANN model's parameters. Three machine learning models were developed for comparative reasons to predict the crater width. The use of precision and error analysis indicators assesses prediction performance. The results show that the proposed hybrid model (LWQPSO-ANN) has high prediction accuracy and stability, which outperforms QPSO-ANN-based benchmark hybrid models and the model without an optimizer (Support Vector Machine, SVM). The parameter sensitivities of the proposed algorithm, including the maximum number of iterations, population size and contraction-expansion coefficient, were determined. The proposed hybrid model is expected to support the quantitative risk assessment (QRA), Right-of-Way (ROW) definition and the inherently safer design of the underground parallel pipelines.     

Advanced process control system with MPC as a new approach for layer of protection analysis

Layer of protection analysis (LOPA) is a widely used method to support process safety in the chemical industries. In the LOPA, the process is classified into many layers, one of such layers considers the basic process control system (BPCS) which commonly uses PID controllers. This kind of controllers cannot deal with constraints. For this reason, the main purpose of this work is to provide a framework to enhance the control layer in the LOPA, which consists of a model predictive control (MPC) with safety features. These features include: sublayers in the controller system (such as real time optimization, target calculation, and MPC), safety constraints, and guarantee of stability by adopting an Infinite Horizon MPC (IHMPC). Here, we propose an approach for control-inspired view to process safety, replacing the BPCS by an Advanced Process Control System (APCS). Moving forward with these concepts, first, a literature review emphasizes the content, showing two perspectives for the APCS. The APCS is designed for two varieties of controllers, a basic IHMPC and IHMPC with zone control to compare the performance. In this framework, the first sublayer consists of a real time optimization (RTO) structure, that calculates the optimal operating condition for the process controller, which computes the control action. Besides, RTO has an additional constraint called the safety index, based on the protection of process operational. RTO and basic IHMPC communicate directly, while for IHMPC with zone control there is an inner sublayer called Target Calculation, it computes a feasible target to the controller, working as another safety strategy in APCS. After that, we demonstrate both structures applied to a CSTR reactor. From the case study, we compared both controllers, and evaluated the effect that the safety index constraint causes in the setpoints, outputs, and control actions. The use of safety constraint in RTO proved to be a safe strategy for the control layer, as well as IHMPC with zone control presented a safer profile than basic IHMPC. Furthermore, the results show that safety constraint affect the economic goal, decreasing its value.     

Dynamic response characteristics and structural optimization of isolation seal under the impact of gas explosion

Either in the chemical process plants or in the underground infrastructures, the isolation seal is regularly used to separate the working sections and inactive sections, or to isolate the possible explosion sites in order to avoid any domino effects. Due to differences in accumulation space or ignition point locations, pressure on the seal can vary when an explosion occurs. Thus, the safety and reliability of seals are crucial to maintaining safety in process industry. This paper focuses on seals constructed with concrete and loess materials, and examines the dynamic response characteristics of the gas explosion wave on the seal through sample experiments and numerical simulation metods. The study proposes an optimized design for the explosion-proof structure of the wedge-shaped and spherical seal, which can provide a technical basis for the explosion-proof and anti-explosion measures of various sealed walls. These research findings can also serve as a basis for improving the construction quality of seals.     

水文变异条件下的东江流域生态径流研究

东江流域的河川径流受气候变化和人类活动的双重影响产生了水文变异,河流生态系统适应了变异前的水文状态,变异后必然会给当地生态系统带来不同程度的影响。因此,论文运用多种检验方法并结合东江流域的实际情况对其水文变异做了系统的分析。在此基础上,采用逐月频率法计算该流域4水文站的生态径流量 (最小、适宜和最大生态径流),得出以下结论:①Tennant的检验表明论文的计算结果是合理的;②龙川、河源、岭下3站存在显著变异,变异后3站不满足河流适宜生态径流量的时间都出现在6月,今后应在该月适当增加调水。同时,可参照文中计算值,建立东江流域生态径流调度预警机制,为流域生态系统的健康和水资源的管理提供科学保障。     

Optimizing the operation of the Qingshitan Reservoir in the Lijiang River for multiple human interests and quasi-natural flow maintenance

For reservoir operation, maintaining a quasi-natural flow regime can benefit river ecosystems, but may sacrifice human interests. This study took the Qingshitan Reservoir in the Lijiang River as a case, and developed an optimization model to explore a trade-off solution between social-economic interests and nature flow maintenance on a monthly base. The objective function considered irrigation, cruise navigation and water supply aspects. An index of flow alteration degree was proposed to measure the difference between the regulated discharge and the natural flow. The index was then used as an additional constraint in the model besides the conventional constraints on reservoir safety. During model solving, different criteria were applied to the index, representing various degrees of alteration of the natural flow regime in the river. Through the model, a relationship between social-economic interests and flow alteration degree was established. Finally, a trade-off solution of the reservoir operation was defined that led to a favorable social-economic benefit at an acceptable alteration of the natural flow.