Risk analysis of Chongqing urban rail transit network

Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures.     

基于企业职业伤害风险和违法处罚的分级监察模型研究

对企业实施分级监察的基础是企业监察级别的确定。分级监察是以“风险优先”为基本的原则风险管理思想。本文在对我国现有的安全生产法规政策和安监部门的部分执法文书以及企业违法处罚情况进行分析总结的基础上,建立了企业违法处罚情况的量化模型,并以企业职业伤害风险和企业违法处罚结果为影响因素,建立了二元分级监察模型。运用所建立的模型对辽宁省某市的159家调研企业的监察级别进行了划分,并对分级结果进行了简要分析。     

对未遂事件发生原因重要度排序方法的探讨

介绍了灰色关联度计算的原理,并用灰色关联度方法对未遂事件的诱发原因进行了实例分析。     

长江流域淡水生态系统内分泌干扰物、药物和个人护理品的风险排序

作为新兴污染物,内分泌干扰物、药物和个人护理品因其排放对水环境安全产生的风险而引起了广泛关注.本文以长江流域为例,以69种内分泌干扰物、药物和个人护理品的环境暴露数据和生态毒性数据为基础,计算它们的生态风险并进行高低排序,以识别最优先控制的污染物.结果表明,内分泌干扰物和个人护理品对水生生态系统的风险较高,如雌酮（estrone）、雌三醇（estriol）、17β-雌二醇（17β-estradiol）、双酚S（bisphenol S）、阿特拉津（atrazine）、三氯卡班（triclocarban）和三氯生（triclosan）;而药物的风险低500倍或更多.相较而言,药物中风险较高的属抗生素类.湘江和洪湖及其周边河流内多种污染物的浓度呈现出最高值,是长江流域污染最重的区域,其次是太湖、洞庭湖和长江三角洲地区.与藻类和虫类相比,鱼类是对内分泌干扰物、药物和个人护理品最敏感的物种,尤其对17α-乙炔雌二醇（17α-ethynylestradiol）和17β-雌二醇.本文的研究结果可对我国化学品的监测和管理提供数据支撑.     

基于筛选层面的北京地区典型二噁英类的生态风险评价

以二 类为研究对象,利用风险评估识别排序模型在稳态假设下对北京地区环境中二 类的潜在生态风险进行模拟计算和评估,并根据计算结果对污染物按风险进行归类.模拟结果表明:当二 以估算的实际排放比例和排放量进入到大气、水和土壤介质中时,以环境介质中的阈值进行分析时,2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并-对-二 (2,3,7,8-TCDD)的风险评价因子(RAF)值为235,归为A类化合物,八氯二苯并-对-二 (OCDD)的RAF值为0.246,归为C类化合物.以生物介质中的阈值进行评价时,2,3,7,8-TCDD和OCDD的RAF值分别为6.70×10-3和1.11×10-3,均归为D类化合物.其余二 类同族体化合物的生态风险介于这二者之间.     

乌梁素海流域地表水中全氟化合物分布、来源及其生态风险

全氟化合物(polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)在长期生产和使用过程中会通过多介质扩散和远距离迁移等方式进入环境中.本研究分析了乌梁素海流域丰水期及枯水期采集的地表水样品中17种PFASs,探讨了该地区PFASs 的时空分布特征、潜在来源及生态风险.结果表明,PFASs在所有地表水样品中均...     

工伤保险在社保制度中的排序变化及其内涵

目前我国常见的社会保险制度排序是养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险、工伤保险和生育保险,工伤保险制度位列第四位;而在计划经济时期的劳动保险制度系列中,工伤待遇规定曾位居第一位,尔后才是医疗待遇规定、养老待遇规定和生育待遇规定。上述排序变化的出现不会是立法者的偶然随意之为,而是以实行市场经济体制改革后我国劳动者-企业-国家之"三方关系"出现的根本性变化为背景原因的,与制度本身从一种面向牺牲了个人安全和健康的建设功臣们实施的国家慰谢待遇向以分散风险、损失共担为机理的保险制度发生的转化密切相关。针对近年来极端劳资纠纷事件增多的趋势,我国的劳动安全管理及工伤保险立法决策还应更加注重向弱势劳动者的倾斜。     

A framework for the social valuation of ecosystem services

Methods to assess ecosystem services using ecological or economic approaches are considerably better defined than methods for the social approach. To identify why the social approach remains unclear, we reviewed current trends in the literature. We found two main reasons: (i) the cultural ecosystem services are usually used to represent the whole social approach, and (ii) the economic valuation based on social preferences is typically included in the social approach. Next, we proposed a framework for the social valuation of ecosystem services that provides alternatives to economics methods, enables comparison across studies, and supports decision-making in land planning and management. The framework includes the agreements emerged from the review, such as considering spatial–temporal flows, including stakeholders from all social ranges, and using two complementary methods to value ecosystem services. Finally, we provided practical recommendations learned from the application of the proposed framework in a case study.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0555-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.