Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration

Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development.     

1971-2016年新疆极端温度时空变化特征分析

基于新疆地区42个气象站点1971-2016年逐日温度数据资料,选取世界气象组织(WMO)推荐的10个极端温度指标,使用线性趋势法、克里金插值法和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析该地区极端温度指数在时间和空间上的变化规律.结果 表明:新疆地区1971-2016年间4个极端高温指数均呈现出明显的上升趋势,除极...     

Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

Land-cover changes in an urban lake watershed in a mega-city, Central China

Urbanization can exert a profound influence on land covers and landscape characteristics. In this study, we characterize the impact of urbanization on land cover and lacustrine landscape and their consequences in a large urban lake watershed, Donghu Lake watershed (the largest urban lake in China), Central China, by using Landsat TM satellite images of three periods of 1987, 1993 and 1999 and ground-based information. We grouped the land covers into six categories: water body, vegetable land, forested land, shrub-grass land, open area and urban land, and calculated patch-related landscape indices to analyze the effects of urbanization on landscape features. We overlaid the land cover maps of the three periods to track the land cover change processes. The results indicated that urban land continuously expanded from 9.1% of the total watershed area in 1987, to 19.4% in 1993, and to 29.6% in 1999. The vegetable land increased from 7.0% in 1987, 11.9% in 1993, to 13.9% in 1999 to sustain the demands of vegetable for increased urban population. Concurrently, continuous reduction of other land cover types occurred between 1987 and 1999: water body decreased from 30.4% to 23.8%, and forested land from 33.6% to 24.3%. We found that the expansion of urban land has at least in part caused a decrease in relatively wild habitats, such as urban forest and lake water area. These alterations had resulted in significant negative environmental consequences, including decline of lakes, deterioration of water and air quality, and loss of biodiversity.     

Changes of Land Use and of Ecosystem Service Values in Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

Agricultural activities, especially reclamation, are considered major threats to the wetland ecosystems in Sanjiang Plain, the largest concentrated area of the freshwater wetlands in China. In the past decades, the area of the cultivated land and its grain production have been increased at the cost of wetlands shrinkage. The large-scale land reclamation severely affected the ecosystems in this region. However, such effects at the regional scale are seldom evaluated quantitatively. We used three datasets of LANDSAT MSS and/or TM imagery to estimate the area changes and the transition of land use types from 1980 to 2000. We also valued changes in ecosystem services delivered by each land category using value coefficients published by Costanza et al. [Nature 387, 1997, 253–260]. Sensitivity analysis suggested that these estimates were relatively robust. Finally, the contribution of various ecosystem functions was ranked to the overall value of the ecosystem services in this study. According to our estimates, the total annual ecosystem service values in Sanjiang Plain have declined by about 40% between 1980 and 2000 ($156284–182572.18 million in total over 20 years). This substantial decline is largely attributed to the 53.4% loss of wetlands. For individual ecosystem functions, waste treatment, water supply and disturbance regulation account for more than 60% to the total ecological values. During those two decades, the contribution of disturbance regulation, cultural and recreation decreased, while the contribution of water regulation, nutrient cycling, food production, raw materials and climate regulation increased during the same period. We also put forward a few proposals concerning the future land use policy formulation and sustainable ecosystems. They are adjusting the ‘food first’ agricultural policy, establishing more nature reserves for wetlands, creating systems for the rational use of water, harnessing the degraded cultivated land and encouraging eco-tourism.     

Dynamic Changes of Sandy Land in Northwest of Beijing, China

The area northwest of Beijing is one of the most important regions where many organizations invest and pay most attention. The environmental problems in this region affect not only Beijing but also the surrounding area. Based on observation of the characteristics of the change in sandy land, this study classified four types of dynamic change of sandy land, including extended sandy land, the reversely changed sandy land, the potential sandy land and no change in sandy land. Then the process and the trend of changes in sandy land and their environmental impact on the area northwest of Beijing were analyzed. The results show that the area of sandy land has increased in this region in the period of 1991 to 2002. Change between sandy land and grassland was the dominant change. It is found that the monitoring zones of Hunshandake sandy land and north of Yin Shan are regions with high ratio of extended sandy land, and are connected with widespread potential change of sandy land. This implies that these two regions have a high probability of increase in sandy land in the future. On the other hand, in the monitoring zone of Horqin sandy land and Ba Shang Plateau and its surrounding area, desertification had been controlled and the area of sandy land is expected to decrease. This indicates that the direction of the sandstorm to Beijing is expected to gradually move to the northwest. Furthermore, the decreases in sandy land and the reversing change from arable land to grassland and forests in the study region will affect the land quality and atmosphere. And the logistic multiple regression (LMR) model was employed to better understand the complexity and processes of increases in sandy land. This model predicts that there is a high probability of increases in sandy land in north of Siziwang Banner, Zhengxiangbai Banner and Zhenglan Banner. Finally, suggestions to the ecological construction of the study area have been proposed.     

Societal implications of a changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures.     

Nitrous oxide and methane in a changing Arctic Ocean

Human activities are changing the Arctic environment at an unprecedented rate resulting in rapid warming, freshening, sea ice retreat and ocean acidification of the Arctic Ocean. Trace gases such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) play important roles in both the atmospheric reactivity and radiative budget of the Arctic and thus have a high potential to influence the region’s climate. However, little is known about how these rapid physical and chemical changes will impact the emissions of major climate-relevant trace gases from the Arctic Ocean. The combined consequences of these stressors present a complex combination of environmental changes which might impact on trace gas production and their subsequent release to the Arctic atmosphere. Here we present our current understanding of nitrous oxide and methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and its relevance for regional and global atmosphere and climate and offer our thoughts on how this might change over coming decades.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01633-8.     

全球气候变化的研究与进展

论述了全球气候变化的研究目标、方法、主要科学问题及近10年来国内外的研究进展和存在的主要问题。指出中国是全球的一个组成部分,又是人类活动最为强烈的地区之一,在全球气候变化、特别是人类活动诱发的气候变化的研究中占有十分重要的地位。建议大力加强全球气候变化的研究,增加研究经费的投入,积极参与国际科学合作,把当前较为分散的研究有效地组织到一些有前景的、能出高水平成果的课题上去,为全球气候变化研究做更大的贡献。     

长白山北坡林线处岳桦年轮年表及其与气候的关系

运用相关函数及响应分析等树木年轮气候学方法,研究了长白山北坡林线处岳桦(Betula ermanii)径向生长及其与气候的关系.结果表明,林线处岳桦年轮宽度年表具有较强的气候敏感性.其径向生长与上年7月和当年3月的温度显著负相关(P<0.05),与上年9月和当年7月的温度显著正相关;同时与上年6月降水量显著正相关.与季节性气候因子的响应分析表明,岳桦径向生长与当年春季(1～3月)和当年生长季前(4、5月)的平均温度呈显著负相关,与当年生长季前的平均最高温度显著正相关,与降水量的相关关系不显著.利用多元逐步回归方法模拟了岳桦年轮宽度指数与气候因子间的关系,并据此预测在温度和降水增加的背景下,林线处岳桦径向生长将降低14.8%.