Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

The future of sustainability in the context of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis emanating both from a virus (SARS-CoV-2) and from the drastic actions to contain it. Here, we reflect on the immediate responses of most world powers amid the pandemic chaos: totalitarian surveillance and nationalist isolation. Drawing on published literature, we consider measures such as wildlife-use bans, lockdowns and travel restrictions, along with their reverberations for people, economies and the planet. Our synthesis highlights significant shortfalls of applying command-and-control tactics in emergencies. For one, heavy-handed bans risk enormous unintended consequences and tend to fail if they lack legitimacy or clash with people’s values. Furthermore, reactive and myopic strategies typically view the pandemic as a stand-alone crisis, rather than unravelling the complex interplay of nature-society interactions through which zoonotic diseases originate. A return to adaptive management approaches that recognise root causes and foster socio-ecological resilience will be essential to improve human and planetary health and mitigate future pandemics.     

某油田采出水用杀菌剂急性毒性研究与职业病防护建议

目的:对某油田采出水用杀菌剂毒性进行评价,为员工安全操作及职业病防护提供依据。方法:采用动物试验方法,对某油田采出水用杀菌剂进行急性毒性实验研究。结果:该油田采出水用杀菌剂对SD大鼠的急性经口半数致死剂量(LD 50)为3160 mg/(kg·bw),属实际无毒级;对普通级成年新西兰白兔皮肤为中等刺激性,对眼睛为严重眼损伤/对眼造成不可逆影响;对普通级白化豚鼠皮肤为低致敏性。结论:该油田采出水用杀菌剂对皮肤、眼睛可能存在较大损伤,作业人员进行相关作业时应做好防护。     

基于DALYs的北京市大气PM2.5载带苯并[a]芘疾病负旦研究

苯并[a]芘(BaP)是一类兼具强致癌性和非致癌毒性的物质,可随PM_(2.5)经呼吸途径进入人体而威胁健康.本文采集2016年北京城区监测点PM_(2.5)样品并采用气相色谱质谱联用仪测定其载带BaP浓度.通过BaP的流行病学及动物毒理学数据的检索和分析,确定BaP呼吸暴露的致癌和非致癌毒效应评价终点及其剂量效应关系.运用伤残调整生命年(DALYs)指标估算了呼吸途径人群PM_(2.5)载带BaP暴露导致的疾病负担.结果显示北京市BaP导致总疾病负担为431.36 DALYs·a~(-1),每千人DALYs为0.03 a~(-1).其中非致癌效应的疾病负担为1.98 DALYs·a~(-1),致癌效应为429.39 DALYs·a~(-1).不同毒效应的疾病负担排序为:癌症(99.54%)发育毒性(0.41%)生殖毒性(0.04%).不同季节的疾病负担贡献差异较大.北京市BaP暴露导致疾病负担的主要贡献季节为冬季,疾病负担贡献的顺序为冬季(88.01%)秋季(4.91%)春季(4.34%)夏季(2.74%).     

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included.     

肉桂在防治老年病中的应用前景

肉桂是常用的中药和调味剂,药理作用广泛.临床应用情况与对机体多系统疾病的研究结果表明,肉桂在老年病方面具有防治作用,结合老年病的现状探讨其在老年病防治中的应用前景.     

Estimation of pasture infectivity according to weather conditions through a fuzzy parametrized model for the free-living stage of Ostertagia ostertagi

Gastrointestinal parasitism is one of the diseases that has the highest economic impact on the Argentinian beef production system, rendering it inefficient. In the region of the Humid Pampas, it has been estimated that 22 million dollars are lost annually because of the death of calves and 170 million dollars are lost in sub-clinic costs. A mathematical model with fuzzy parameters was constructed for the analysis of the free-living stages of gastrointestinal parasites, with the purpose of estimating the pool of L3 larvae available for migration to pasture and the levels of infection in pasture at any time of the year under different climatic conditions. The model is formulated in terms of a system of three difference equations. These equations describe the abundance of parasites in each of the successive stages of the population development. The model was calibrated and tested with data gathered through fieldwork carried out in Tandil (37°19′S, 59°08′05″W), province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) and the corresponding weather data. A comparison between model simulations and fieldwork data obtained in other locations achieved satisfactory results.     

Mental Workload and Health: A Latent Threat

The aim of this study is to investigate changes in cardiovascular activity associated with a high mental workload. The reported experiments, carried out in naturalistic settings, point to information load and information processing under time pressure as main risk factors. This kind of occupational stress had to be dealt with by two of the three groups under investigation: brokers and simultaneous interpreters; it was not experienced by lecturing university professors. The pattern of cardiovascular activity of the two former groups consisted of overmobilization of cardiovascular activity at the beginning of work, and only partial normalization of task-evoked changes in cardiovascular activity at the end of work. Substantial elevations of diastolic blood pressure and tachycardia, which followed earlier overmobilization, resemble a miniature copy of changes seen in the development of cardiovascular diseases.     

Circadian Rhythm of Heart Rate,Urinary Cortisol Excretion,and Sleep in Civil Air Traffic Controllers

The examination of Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) from the Warsaw Airport (Poland) included 24-hr ECG monitoring. The participants were 10 civil ATCs, 9 males and 1 woman. The study was carried out on a group of 19 ATCs during their duty periods, 14 of them working 12-hr shifts and 5 performing 24-hr duties. The participants collected urine every 4 hrs, and Cortisol concentration was determined. Further, the survey included the quality and duration of sleep, and subjective fatigue in the 62 participants.

In ATCs, shift work modifies natural rhythms of the circulatory system and decreases the ability for intensified mental work at night. In consequence ATCs experience frequent sleep disorders.     

A Heart Rate Evaluation Approach to Determine Cost-Effectiveness an Ergonomics Intervention

This paper describes a hear-rate methodology to determine the cost-effectiveness of an ergonomics intervention to reduce workload and improve working conditions. This is a practical approach as opposed to the energy expenditure technique that is difficult to implement in natural settings. This was a laboratory study using a large excavator cabin with devices to simulate excavation operations. Mean heart rate was used to calculate the required rest time during a shift with or without air-conditioning. The criterion for evaluation was differences in required rest time during a shift under these 2 conditions. The simplicity and objectivity of this approach invites use to solve the problem of the economic evaluation of ergonomics interventions.