汶川地震后砌体结构房屋震害调查分析

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震后,根据四川省什邡市5幢砌体结构房屋震害的现场检测记录,以案例形式比较了房屋不同的结构形式、墙体布局、层间刚度比、构造柱设置、悬挑阳台、变形缝和选址等概念设计因素对结构抗震性能的影响,分析了结构发生各种损坏的原因,并对砌体结构房屋抗震设计提出建议。     

近场脉冲地震下考虑模型不确定性的桥梁时变抗震分析

为了研究近场脉冲地震下桥梁结构的时变抗震性能,以一座常规连续梁桥为研究对象,引入氯离子侵蚀模型,在考虑多种不确定性因素基础上,采用拉丁超立方抽样建立不同服役时期的时变模型样本,运用增量动力分析方法,从能力、需求以及倒塌等方面对算例桥梁的时变抗震性能进行了研究和评价。结果表明:近场脉冲型地震下结构的抗震需求明显大于远场地震;氯离子侵蚀导致钢筋锈蚀后力学性能发生改变,箍筋对核心混凝土约束能力减弱,锈蚀纵筋屈服强度及极限拉应变都降低,导致桥墩的变形能力下降;与地面运动的不确定性相比,模型参数的不确定性对结构的抗震需求均值及离散性影响均不大;随着服役时间延长,钢筋锈蚀加剧,桥墩出现倒塌破坏的概率加大。     

陕西省的地震危险趋势估计

本文应用计算某一地震带(区)上地震复发周期的公式;T_m=m×10~(bm-a)以及灰色系统理论的动态模型对陕西地区进行了地震危险趋势估计。     

井下火花——矿井火灾的点燃源

考察了各类井下火花诱发灾害的典型实例以及８０年代以来国内外的研究状况，指出深入开展这一课题的研究对防灾的重要性．     

地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数

定义了地震人员伤亡指数和初始人员伤亡指数,构筑了人员伤亡状态函数,并进行了参数分析。     

Environmental Information Systems in Malaria Risk Mapping and Epidemic Forecasting

Every year between one and two million African children under five die of malaria. If one adds to this the contribution of malaria to all-cause infant mortality then clearly the burden of the disease is catastrophic — a disaster quietly happening each and every year. New tools are needed urgently to support those currently available for control of the disease. An effective vaccine remains elusive. This article outlines the potential contribution to malaria control services of satellite information, which is being used by resource managers in other sectors. In particular, it highlights the lessons which can be learned from early warning systems in other areas, especially those designed to respond to famine. An appendix provides a brief introduction to satellite data and their interpretation.     

Injuries as a Result of California Earthquakes in the Past Decade

The devastating effects of earthquakes have been demonstrated repeatedly in the past decade, through moderate and major earthquakes such as the October 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake (5.9 on the Richter scale), the October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (7.1) and the January 1994 Northridge earthquake (6.7). While 'official' tallies of injuries and deaths are reported for each event, the numbers vary from report to report. For Northridge, the number of injuries vary between 8,000 and 12,000; the number of deaths from 33 to 73 (Peek-Asa et al., 1997; Durkin, 1996).While official estimates are commonly reported following disasters, the study of actual numbers, types and causes of casualties has not developed. In this paper, we identify the numbers and risk factors for injuries within community-based samples across three earthquakes in urban California. We first report the numbers and types of injuries in each earthquake and then identify risk factors specifically associated with the Northridge earthquake     

架空管道震害预测实用方法的研究

根据震害调查分析和试验研究结果,建立了由环境因素和管道结构参数组成的,对架空管道震害预测进行二级多因素模糊综合评判的方法。文中给出了计算、评价构成二级评判因素地震烈度、场地类型、工作状态和结构种类各档次正态模糊数范数ａｋ的参数和对实际情况如何确定的方法。本文为面广量大的已建架空管道的震害预测工作提供了一套科学性强,方便实用的计算方法。     

模块化火灾综合评估系统

火灾的综合评估,由于火灾过程的复杂性和人类干预的介入而变得比较困难,本文充分注意到火灾发展的不同阶段和不同过程,以及人类干预的不同侧重点,将火灾综合评估系统分解成五个既相互独立,又相互关系的评估模块,并对这些模块的结构进行了初步的探讨,火灾综合评估系统的模块化设计,有利于不同评估方法的独立发展和火灾综合评估工作的灵活操作。     

广东沿海地区海平面上升影响综合评估

从系统的角度出发,建立了海平面灾害综合评估因子指标体系,引入了抗灾能力指数的概念,提出了一个综合评估模型,并以广东省沿海地区为例进行了海平面上升影响综合评估,结果表明,由于模型中考虑了抗灾能力指数,变被支评估为主动评估,使海岸灾害风险等级的评估结果更符合实际,评估结构可用于指导宏观抗灾,救灾,减灾等活动,该模型已用于广东海平面的地理信息系统（光盘）。