天津市湿地资源开发的累积环境影响评价初探

历史上天津市自然湿地资源十分丰富,几十年来湿地大面积萎缩和生态功能急剧退化。天津湿地生态系统存在的主要问题是湿地生态系统如何恢复、重建和功能修复。文章在对天津市湿地生态环境建设的现状与湿地景观变化发展主要问题进行分析的基础上,探讨了湿地生态建设的目标、任务和对策,论述了湿地资源开发利用过程中累积影响评价(CIA)在政策、规划、计划及项目的各个层次都应得到充分考虑,建议明确将累积影响评价纳入到资源开发利用的体系,推动环境影响评价实践的进一步深入开展。     

基于信息融合的天然气采气管线安全性评价

信息融合技术充分利用多源信息的互补性、综合性,可以极大地提高评价指标信息的质量和可信度。针对天然气采气管线运行环境复杂性带来的采气管线安全检测与评价在时间与空间的不确定性,通过采集以及分析天然气采气管线的宏观检测信息、无损检测信息、理化检测信息以及力学性能信息,提出了一种利用信息融合技术的采气管线安全性评价的模型,给出了该评价模型的步骤,并对某在役运行的天然气采气管线进行了安全性评价,并获得满意的效果。评价结果表明该管线存在不同程度腐蚀,安全性评价表明该管线可安全运行。     

城市重点公共区域人群聚集风险的实时定量技术

城市公共区域人群高度聚集且流动性大,紧急状态时易发生群死群伤的拥挤踩踏事故,造成大量人员伤亡和社会负面影响。在FIST模型的基础上,提出以人员密度（D）、人员特性（C）、人与人的相互作用（I）以及人群聚集环境（E）作为表征公共场所人群聚集风险的基本参数,接下来对四个参数进行了相应的技术分析。第一,利用人群监控技术估计人群密度;第二,通过现场监测网络得到的人群压力值来表征人与人相互作用的强度;第三,忽略了个体差异对人群整体的影响;第四,把公共场所中导致事故发生的影响因子归结为综合扰动强度,并建立了相应的数学模型表征了这种强度的大小。最终建立了描述人群聚集风险的DICE模型。同时,给出了人群密度阈值、人群压力阈值以及人群聚集风险的总阈值及其判断标准,整个工作将人群聚集风险实时定量及管理技术推向了实用化的道路。     

作业条件危险性评价法在深水钻完井作业评价中的应用研究

深水钻完井作业长期暴露于危险环境中,被普遍认为是高危作业。同时深水事故的发生给人类带来深刻的教训,例如墨西哥漏油事件造成恶劣的海洋环境污染,有必要提高钻完井作业的安全性。由于深水钻完井作业复杂,其危险性复杂多样,需从作业单元入手详细分析其危险性。本文采用作业条件危险性评价法（LEC）对深水钻完井作业进行危险性评价。首先,辨识危险有害因素;其次,在对作业条件危险性评价法进行改进的基础上分析深水油气田钻完井作业火灾爆炸危险性。分析结果表明改进后的作业条件危险性评价法能够更准确地确定危险等级,为对深水钻完井作业其它危险因素评价提供了参考。     

基于Web的安全评价辅助系统的研究

随着我国经济的迅速发展,安全生产的问题在国民经济中的地位越来越重要,安全评价工作正在各个行业开展。目前,对系统安全状况的评价主要通过人工方式,其主要缺点有评价数据精度不高、评价速度慢、评价操作复杂等。本文设计了一个适合政府部门和企业的安全评价辅助系统。将计算机技术应用于安全评价过程中,较好的克服了人工方式的缺点,并能将评价信息及时完整的反馈给安全工作者。该系统运用MicrosoftSQLServer2000和．NET技术,构建了基于B／S／D／C结构的安全评价辅助系统平台,实现了安全评价报告的撰写等功能。其具有一定的实用性,能满足一般用户对安全评价报告的撰写、快速浏览添加以及统计管理等功能。     

石油化工装置安全距离确定方法研究

为确定石油化工装置与暴露目标间的合理安全距离,对国内外安全距离确定方法进行研究,以个体风险标准值和不同危害的伤害阈值为基础,提出确定石油化工装置与暴露目标间安全距离的基本原则。在此基础上,将确定性分析方法和基于风险的方法进行结合,形成石油化工装置与暴露目标安全距离的评估方法。该方法利用暴露目标的个体风险标准选择危害事件,并定义安全距离种类,根据"伤害标准"或"无伤害标准",采取确定性分析方法的方式,确定危害事件与不同暴露目标间的安全距离。应用示例展示该方法在石油化工装置安全距离确定中的应用。     

Validating an evidence-based, self-rated fall risk questionnaire (FRQ) for older adults

Background

Falls are a common, serious, and often unrecognized problem facing older adults. The objective of this study was to provide an initial clinical and statistical validation for a public health strategy of fall risk self-assessment by older adults using a Fall Risk Questionnaire (FRQ).

Methods

Adults age 65 + (n = 40) were recruited at a Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facility and at a local assisted living facility. Participants completed the FRQ self-assessment and results were compared to a “gold standard” of a clinical evaluation of risks using the American/British Geriatrics Society guidelines to assess independent predictors of falls: history of previous falls, fear of falling, gait/balance, muscle weakness, incontinence, sensation and proprioception, depression, vision, and medications. For the comparison, we used an iterative statistical approach, weighing items based on relative risk.

Results

There was strong agreement between the FRQ and clinical evaluation (kappa = .875, p < .0001). Individual item kappa values ranged from .305-.832. After dropping one FRQ item (vision risk) because of inadequate agreement with the clinical evaluation (kappa = .139, p = .321), the final FRQ had good concurrent validity.

Conclusions

The FRQ goes beyond existing screening tools in that it is based on both evidence and clinical acceptability and has been initially validated with clinical examination data. A larger validation with longitudinal follow-up should determine the actual strength of the FRQ in predicting future falls.     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

Risk analysis and assessment methodologies in the work sites: On a review, classification and comparative study of the scientific literature of the period 2000-2009

The objective of this work is to determine and study, analyze and elaborate, classify and categorize the main risk analysis and risk-assessment methods and techniques by reviewing the scientific literature. The paper consists of two parts: a) the investigation, presentation and elaboration of the main risk-assessment methodologies and b) the statistical analysis, classification, and comparative study of the corresponding scientific papers published by six representative scientific journals of Elsevier B.V. covering the decade 2000-2009. The scientific literature reviewing showed that the risk analysis and assessment techniques are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). The qualitative techniques are based both on analytical estimation processes, and on the safety managers-engineers ability. According to quantitative techniques, the risk can be considered as a quantity, which can be estimated and expressed by a mathematical relation, under the help of real accidents’ data recorded in a work site. The hybrid techniques, present a great complexity due to their ad hoc character that prevents a wide spreading. The statistical analysis shows that the quantitative methods present the highest relative frequency (65.63%) while the qualitative a lower one (27.68%). Furthermore the hybrid methods remain constantly at a very low level (6.70%) during the entire processing period.