政府调控、市场机制与城市发展

深入探究政府调控和市场机制对城市规模的影响有利于解决目前中国大城市人口快速膨胀,城市病频发,而中小城市发展潜力不足,对人口吸纳能力有限,城市发展规模存在两极分化的问题。从探究影响城市发展的因素入手,通过对不同地区和不同规模城市的面板数据回归分析,发现中国属于典型的"自上而下"的城市发展模式,尤其是城市科层制的层级结构直接决定了城市规模大小,政府财政分权行为更加剧了城市规模两极分化趋势。市场机制对城市规模具有一定的影响,但其作用方向和效果明显依赖于政府调控水平,且科层制的城市等级结构弱化了市场机制对城市规模影响效果的发挥。政府和市场机制对不同区域、不同规模城市的影响效应不同。市场机制在东部城市产生涓流效应,而在中西部则发挥着聚集极化作用。市场机制在特大和大城市已产生涓流效应,加之政府"抑大崇小"的城市发展战略使得这种效应愈加明显,中等城市则处于极化效应和涓流效应更替中,小城市则表现为更多的聚集极化效应。为形成大中小城市合理分工的城市体系,其关键在于正确处理政府调控和市场机制的关系。政府应指导城市发展方向,为其创造良好的宏观环境,市场则应在微观资源配置中起决定性作用。建议根据城市发展和市场经济需要,对现有的行政区划进行适时调整和变动。调整公共资源在特大及大中小城市传统分配政策,实现公共资源由按行政级别配置向按照人口规模配置转变。同时,建立跨区域的相应的协调机制,以市场力量突破行政界限探索城市健康发展。     

Reliability and validity of the Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory in Chinese drivers

Objective: The Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory (MDSI) has been widely used in assessing the associations between driving styles and traffic violations and accidents in different cultural contexts. Due to the lack of a valid instrument to assess driving style, studies concerning driving style and its influence factors are limited in China. Thus, this study aimed to adapt and validate a Chinese version of the MDSI.

Methods: Seven hundred and sixty drivers aged from 19 to 60 years old were asked to complete the MDSI and a personality scale (trait anger, sensation seeking, altruism, and normlessness). Exploratory factory analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to obtain the factorial structure of the MDSI. The external validity of the MDSI was then evaluated by examining the associations between driving styles and personality traits, demographic variables, and traffic violations and crashes.

Results: EFA revealed a 6-factor structure of the MDSI (i.e., risky, anxious, angry, distress reduction, careful, and dissociative driving styles). CFA confirmed that the model fit of the MDSI was acceptable. The MDSI factors were moderately or weakly correlated with trait anger, sensation seeking, altruism, and normlessness. Significant gender and age differences in driving styles were found. Moreover, drivers who had traffic violations or crashes in the past year scored higher on risky and angry driving styles and lower on careful driving style than those who had not have traffic violations or crashes.

Conclusions: The Chinese version of the MDSI proved to be a reliable, valid, and highly useful instrument. It could be used to assess Chinese drivers who are at risk due to their maladaptive driving styles.     

官方媒体参与下不同风险感知群体竞争模型及其演化规律

为识别公众风险感知的演化规律和官方媒体参与的作用机制，首先，根据公众的行为表现划分不同风险感知群体，并分析群体间的相互竞争和官方媒体的扰动作用；然后，通过扩展Lotka Volterra模型建立群体间的相互竞争模型；在此基础上，通过推导模型平衡点及其稳定性分析模型演化规律；最后，运用数值仿真考查了官方媒体的参与对模型演化的影响。研究结果表明:模型演化具有3种结果情景，官方媒体参与能够显著改变模型演化的速度和结果。     

考虑松动圈影响的钻孔瓦斯抽放合理封孔长度确定研究

以王行庄矿11071工作面为工程试验地点,通过超声波和钻孔窥视现场测试,结合理论计算,开展了瓦斯抽采煤巷松动圈范围和瓦斯抽放钻孔合理封孔长度确定的研究。确定了王行庄11071工作面二1煤层围岩卸压区宽度为8.87 m,极限平衡区宽度为9.87 m,合理封孔深度为10 m;通过极限平衡法理论计算得到的结果与超声波法、钻孔窥视法的测试结果基本相符。     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

Selection of failure frequency and its impact on risk assessment – A case study from plot plan optimisation

Facility Siting is an important phase of project development. A critical stage is plot plan optimisation, where significant potential hazards are eliminated due to equipment spacing. In addition to ensuring appropriate compliance with minimum spacing requirements, occupied building studies to achieve compliance with the requirements of API 752 and API 753 could also be undertaken to optimise safety outcomes. The studies are done in three stages, where the first stage is hazard identification, second stage is consequence assessment and the third stage is risk assessment. Third stage assessments are only carried, if the consequence based siting recommendations are not practical to implement.This paper presents the challenges in estimating risk due to process hazards with a focus on selecting right event likelihood data. A comparison is presented on the variation in predicted risk levels based on equipment failure rates and leak frequencies.Case study of a plot plan optimisation study is undertaken with DNVGL Phast Risk and the variation in risk levels up to two orders of magnitude are recorded. Challenges such as adaption of data for local conditions, consistent definitions of failure, sample size of data, applicability of data play a significant role in identifying and correctly quantifying the risk levels. Such challenges and its impact on risk quantification are presented in this paper as well as its impact on facility siting.     

Effects of particle thermal characteristics on flame microstructures during dust explosions of three long-chain monobasic alcohols in a half-closed chamber

To reveal clearly the effects of particle thermal characteristics on flame microstructures during organic dust explosions, three long-chain monobasic alcohols, solid at room temperature and similar in physical-chemical properties, were chosen to conduct experiments in a half-closed chamber. In the experiments, the dust materials were dispersed into the chamber by air to form dust clouds and the hybrids were ignited by an electrical spark. A high-speed optical schlieren system was used to record the flame propagation behaviors. A fine thermocouple and an ion current probe were respectively used to measure the flame temperature profile and the reaction behaviors of the combustion zone. Based on the experimental results, combustion behaviors and flame microstructures in dust clouds with different thermal characteristics were analyzed in detail. As a result, it was found that the dust flame surfaces were completely covered by cellular structures that significantly increased the flame frontal areas. Flame propagated more quickly and the number of the cellular cells increased as increasing the volatility of the particles. On the contrary, maximum temperature and the thickness of the preheated zone decreased as increasing the volatility of the particles. According to the ion current profile, the particles in the preheat zone were pyrolyzed to intermediate radicals and the radicals' fraction in the higher volatile dust flame was higher than that in the lower volatile dust flame.     

Application of the QuEChERS method for the determination of organochlorine pesticide residues in Brazilian fruit pulps by GC-ECD

The Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe (QuEChERS) method was applied to the extraction of 14 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) residues from commercial fruit pulps available in supermarkets in Fortaleza, Northeastern Brazil. The analyses were carried out by gas chromatography (GC), coupled to an electron-capture detector (ECD), and were confirmed by GC-tandem mass spectrometry (MS). The parameters of the analytical method, such as accuracy, precision, linear range, limits of detection and quantification, were determined for each pesticide. The results showed good linearity (R² ≥ 0.9916) and the overall average recoveries were considered satisfactory obtaining values between 69 and 110%, RSD of 2–15 %, except for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in açai, acerola and guava pulp samples. The OCPs were detected in guava (α–HCH; lindane) and soursop (α, β–HCH isomers) samples. The QuEChERS method and GC–ECD were successfully used to analyze OCPs in commercially available Brazilian fruit pulps and can be applied in routine analytical laboratories.     

A product analysis-based study on the mechanism of inflammable gas explosion suppression

To study the mechanism of the suppressing effect of Expanded Aluminium (EA) on the premixed gas explosion, premixed methane-air and propane-air gases were undergone explosion reaction in the presence of EA in a self-designed closed pipeline with the overpressures and the compositions, rates and sensitivities of products analyzed. The results showed that the 9.5% methane-air and 5% propane-air explosions produced peak pressures decreased by 79.3% and 65.6%, and residual methane and propane contents increased by 270% and 560% respectively than without EA. In addition, the results revealed that the explosions of propane in the presence of EA produced less methane and carbon oxides contents, but more ethylene and propylene contents. The simulation showed that H, O, and OH are the key factors affecting the rate of products. The product compositions, together with other parameters, suggested that EA decreased temperature, inhibited chain initiation and propagation reaction, but facilitated chain termination reaction by advancing and accelerating the gas phase and wall destruction reaction of radicals, especially collisions and concentration of key free radicals. This new research method based on the analysis of explosion products can be used for in-depth research into gas explosion features and shed light on the suppressing mechanism of EA in flammable gas explosion.