灰色预测法在南宁市可持续发展趋势分析中的应用

本文运用灰色系统理论 ,建立灰色预测模型 ,对南宁市社会、经济及生态环境发展趋势进行了分析 ,并针对南宁市发展中的不合理状况 ,提出相应的调控对策。     

中国国家资源环境安全问题初探

作为世界上最大的发展中国家 ,中国资源环境的现实基础表现出明显脆弱的特征。更严重的问题是 ,未来人口的增长和生活水平的提高对现已十分脆弱的国家资源环境安全基础产生着巨大的压力。若在此问题上出现认识和发展政策上的失误 ,便会产生巨大负面效应 ,严重影响中国国家现代化的进程。为此 ,建议 2 1世纪中国可持续发展战略的首要任务应是确保国家资源环境安全的稳定性。     

长江三角洲大都市周边地区城市定位研究——以苏州、南通为例

本文以大都市理论和区位理论为基础 ,从区域分工与协作的角度 ,探讨了在经济全球化和市场一体化背景下 ,上海大都市周边的大城市苏州和南通未来发展的城市定位以及实现定位的途径 ,为长江三角洲都市连绵区诸城市之间的协调发展提供借鉴。     

Environmental issues in Sweden 1973–1989: Science and policy

The aim of this study is to analyze the environmental agenda in Sweden during the last two decades. A content analysis was made of all articles in a Swedish journal,Miljö-Aktuellt. Further, to elucidate the evolutionary process of problem formulation and reformulation, two cases were investigated, dealing with the impact of plant nutrients and mercury on surface water quality. The transport of heavy metals is an essential component of the ecological process and problem of acidification, and similarly, plant nutrients are part of the concept of eutrophication. Two concepts, the research cycle and the policy cycle, are tentatively applied to the conceptualizations of acidification and eutrophication. Additional data for the latter part of the study is supplied from parliamentary motions during 1973–1989. The substance/media focus of the 1970s was connected to a point-source abatement strategy, which mainly aimed at removing negative effects at a local level. The development of a national preventive strategy is traced in problem formulations related to “processes” going on in the technosphere: wastes, noise, energy production, traffic, and toxic substances. This period lasted from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, and the need for improved resource management as a means to control environmental problems has been a generally accepted idea. However, this does not mean that measures actually taken are sufficient in a material balance perspective. Further, in the 1980s there was a strong emphasis upon processes in the ecosphere. This focus also implies source-related policies. To a certain extent, the remedies are within the scope of national capabilities, but the international dimension is becoming increasingly important. Scientific proofs of resource and environment degradation are essential to induce political action and to stimulate international cooperation. From this study, however, it is not possible to assess the existence of any particular policy-triggering information.     

The Orthodoxy And Sustainable Development A Potential For Broader Involvement Of The Orthodox Churches In Ethiopia And Russia

In recent years, churches across the world have become involved in dialogue on the theory and practice of sustainable development. A number of Western churches have expressed their concern about climate change and destructive living patterns, stressing the need for human beings to exercise the care for all creation based on a life of sharing and sacrifice. Some Orthodox churches, however, quite recently included the environmental issues in their agendas. While the Bases of Social Concept, a major doctrine of the Russian Orthodox Church adopted in 2000, for the first time emphasises the Churchs position in overcoming environmental crisis and presents a solid basis on which to build the future environmental strategy of the Church, the Ethiopian Orthodox Church has not yet drawn up a programme document that might serve as a framework for the Churchs current extensive activities in the field of biodiversity conservation and sustainable forestry practices. Hence, despite certain closeness of both institutions, there is the potential for strengthening their roles in promoting sustainable development, based on the Biblical concept that the Earth belongs to the Lord and humans are responsible stewards assigned the duty to work for creation and care for it. This paper seeks to demonstrate by means of comparable analysis between the two Churches, Orthodox in nature but different in rites and religious practices, that traditional, highly conservative faiths may serve as powerful instruments of spreading out the ideas of sustainable development as the basis of spiritual revival in the situation of the two concurrent and interrelated crises – spiritual and ecological.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

江苏省环境与人口、经济的协调发展分析——基于环境安全视角

协调发展既是国民经济乐观发展的客观要求,同时也是人类可持续发展不可或缺的组成部分。江苏省协调发展问题的研究有利于解决环境问题的定位,发现环境发展中的薄弱点与发展潜力,促进环境与人口、经济的协调发展。以环境安全理论为依托,以强调协调发展为出发点,建立江苏省环境与人口、经济系统的协调发展指标体系,应用改进的层次分析法（AHP）及变异系数法权重均值赋权,借鉴模糊数学中隶属度函数来计算协调系数。结果表明：2001~2010年江苏省环境与人口、经济系统的平均协调水平处于基本协调状态,并且有稳中上升的趋势,协调发展前景乐观;同时分析并提出了建立健全江苏省协调发展机制、探讨环境安全维护体系建设、制订缓解人口压力政策等建议     

公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难和不确定性分析

首先分析了公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难,即评价方法的不成熟和获取资料的困难;然后重点分析了评价中的公路网规划方案的不确定、环境信息的不确定、空间信息的不确定和环境影响程度的不确定;最后提出了 4种解决困难和降低不确定的方法,即制定公路网规划环境影响评价技术导则,使用基于情景分析的预测方法,广泛开展公众参与以及通过多方协作的方式开展环境影响评价工作.     

Some Lessons Learned from Public Health on the Process of Adaptation

Lessons learned from more than 150 years of public health research and intervention can provide insights to guide public health professionals and institutions as they design and implement specific strategies, policies, and measures to increase resilience to climate variability and change. This paper identifies both some modifications to public health systems that may enhance adaptive capacity, and lessons drawn from the history of managing environmental and other threats in the public health sector that may have relevance for other sectors as they design approaches to increase their adaptive capacity to more effectively cope with climate variability and change. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent official US EPA policy.     

Methylmercury, total mercury and total selenium in four common freshwater fish species from Ya-Er Lake, China

Snakehead fish (Ophiocephalus argus cantor), silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrtix), crucian carp (Carassius carassius), and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) are four common freshwater fish species in China. In this study, the level of methylmercury (MeHg), total mercury (T-Hg), and total selenium (T-Se) in muscle samples of these four fish species from Ya-Er Lake, China, were analyzed using atomic fluorescence spectrometry coupled with high-performance liquid chromatography, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The concentrations of MeHg in all the fish species were significantly correlated with those of T-Hg. Higher T-Hg and MeHg concentrations had accumulated in the snakehead fish, which is a strongly predatory fish, than in the other three species. The concentration ratios of MeHg and T-Hg in the muscles of these four fish species were almost equal. Conversely, there was negative correlation between the concentrations of T-Hg and T-Se, which implies that there is a competition between these two elements with respect to bioaccumulation. It is noteworthy that of all the muscle samples tested, the level of T-Hg exceeded the maximum allowable limit in fish [0.4 mg kg⁻¹ (w/w) recommended by the World Health Organization] in 38.46% of those of the silver carp, 18.18% of those of the crucian carp, and 100% of those of snakehead fish. These results show that the consumption of contaminated fish is a potential threat to human health and that necessary preventive measures to safeguard public health should be emphasized.     

基于生态市建设的生态可持续发展研究——以常州市为例

以常州市为例,探讨了基于生态市建设的生态可持续发展的内涵,提出“生态保育区-生态提升区-生态新建区”的生态建设分区模式和市域生态防护网架是构建区域生态安全格局的基本框架和促进区域生态可持续发展的调控途径。