高层民用建筑火灾风险综合评估系统研究

为构建更为完善、科学的高层民用建筑火灾风险评价指标体系,并进而建立未确知C-均值聚类模型,对高层民用建筑火灾风险状况进行综合评价,以确定其发生火灾的危险性等级.首先针对目前高层民用建筑火灾风险评估研究存在的不足,提出总体思路.然后,基于危险源辨识,结合《高层民用建筑设计防火规范》,运用事故致因分析及专家调查等方法,分析影响高层民用建筑火灾发生的各种不确定性因素,建立了高层民用建筑火灾风险评价指标体系.在此基础上,根据高层民用建筑火灾风险评价的特点,引入未确知C-均值聚类智能化方法,建立了基于未确知聚类的高层民用建筑火灾风险综合评估模型,并进行了实证分析.结果表明,提出的高层民用建筑火灾风险综合评价系统可以保证高层建筑火灾风险评估的准确性.     

建议将上海国际机场建在海堤之外潮滩上

从机场发展，节省土地，飞行安全，减少城市噪音等方面的实际情况出发，提出将上海国际机场建造在海堤外的潮滩之上。     

机场安全趋势分析方法与应用研究

通过构建机场安全趋势分析模型,对各区域的不安全事件进行分类、分级,并采用责任因子分配机场管理机构和驻场单位之间的安全责任。利用2008—2014年某机场的825起不安全事件验证了模型有效性和可靠性,并预测了2015—2018年的不安全事件数量、起降架次、安全风险分数以及安全趋势指数。分析结果表明,此方法能够准确反映机场当前安全运行状况和未来的发展趋势。     

Sources and risk assessment of metal contamination in soils at the international airport of Shanghai,China

Concentrations of Cd, Pb, Zn, Cr, Cu, and Ni in soils at the Pudong International Airport (PIA) of Shanghai, China, were determined to assess the sources and potential ecological risks. Compared to the soil background values of Shanghai, 31 soil samples out of 33 were highly contaminated with Cd, and 76% were moderately contaminated by Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Principal component analysis and clustering analysis indicated that Pb and Cd mainly originated from anthropogenic sources, while Zn, Cr, Ni, and Cu were mainly from natural sources. Relatively high concentrations of Cd and Pb were observed at sampling points near the landing or take-off sites or a close-by highway. Both air and highway traffic affected the quality of the soils at PIA.     

Linking Local Sustainability Initiatives with Environmental Justice

Beyond adopting sustainability as a feel-good slogan, many communities are trying to translate this general principle into specific and measurable terms. Community indicators are being introduced as a tool for analysis and community development in US cities from Seattle, WA to Jacksonville, FL. Most efforts acknowledge that sustainability ought to serve communities as a whole; rather than privilege certain elites, sustainability should build social equity. Using a web-based methodology, this research reviews sustainability efforts in 33 of the largest US cities to see which have addressed environmental justice as a dimension of sustainability. Five projects are identified and their programmes are summarised in terms of educational, policy and implementation content. KEE WARNER, Enlazando Iniciativas de Sostenibilidad Local con Justicia Ambiental . Más allá de adoptar la sostenibilidad como un lema para estar bien, muchas comunidades estan tratando de trasladar este principio general en términos específicos y medibles. Indicadores comunitarios esta´n siendo introducidos como una herramienta para el análisis y el desarrollo comunitario en ciudades americanas como Seattle, Washington a Jacksonville, Florida. La mayoría de los esfuerzos reconocen que la sostenibilidad tiene que servir a las comunidades como un todo; más que privilegiar ciertas élites, la sostenibilidad debe construir equidad social. Usando una metodolgía basada en la red, esta investigación estudia los esfuerzos para promover la sostenibilidad en treinta y tres de las mas grandes ciudades de los Estados Unidos para ver cual a dirijido justicia ambiental como una dimensión de sostenibilidad. Cinco proyectos son indentificados y sus programas son resumidos en términos de contenido educacional, político y de implementacio´n.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

East Timor emerging from conflict: the role of local NGOs and international assistance

International assistance efforts have represented a conundrum for East Timorese seeking to assert their new independence and autonomy. While urgent needs have been met, local participation, involvement and capacity building have not been given adequate attention. This outcome is aptly demonstrated in the case of local non-government organisations (LNGOs). This paper specifically examines the role of LNGOs in the recovery of East Timor within the international assistance programme. It examines the challenges of rehabilitation efforts in East Timor with a particular focus on capacity building of East Timorese NGOs as part of a broader effort to strengthen civil society. The initial crisis response in East Timor highlighted tension between meeting immediate needs while simultaneously incorporating civil society actors such as NGOs and communities. It has been argued that local NGOs and the community at large were not sufficiently incorporated into the process. While it is acknowledged that many local NGOs had limited capacity to respond, a greater emphasis on collaboration, inclusion and capacity building was desirable, with a view to supporting medium and longer term objectives that promote a vibrant civil society, sustainability and self-management.     

From disaster to sustainable civil society: the Kobe experience

Nine years after the Kobe earthquake in Japan, social issues are still prominent, and the rehabilitation process is still ongoing. The earthquake caused two major changes in Japanese society: an increase in voluntary and non-government activities, and the enhancement of cooperation between local government and the residents' association. People's participation in the decision-making process was a significant achievement. To sustain the efforts generated after the earthquake, the Kobe Action Plan was formulated and tested in different disaster scenarios. The current study suggests that civil societies in urban areas are sustainable if, first, the activities related to daily services are provided by the resident's associations; and second, these are linked to economic incentives. Leadership plays a crucial role in collective decision-making. Creation of the support system is essential for long-term sustainability of civil-society activities. These observations are exemplified in the case study in Nishi Suma, one of the worst-affected areas in the Kobe city.     

Dilemmas and advances in corporate social responsibility in Brazil. The work of the Ethos Institute

This article discusses the development of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in Brazil from the perspective of the Ethos Institute of Business and Social Responsibility. The Institute is a not‐for‐profit, non‐governmental organization, that has played a leading role in the Brazilian CSR effort. In Brazil, CSR initiatives have a long tradition of philanthropy, a consequence of the country's great social inequalities. The increased attention to corporate social responsibility has paralleled growing concern about sustainable development and the intensifying activities of pressure groups (consumers, customers, investors, NGOs, labour unions, the media, among others) that have been increasing since the 1990s as natural resources are progressively becoming exhausted, social tensions rising and environmental conditions deteriorating worldwide. This article identifies problems and obstacles to the growth of corporate social responsibility in Brazil, as well as advances and alternatives for CSR and towards creating conditions for the country to be internationally competitive and sustainable in the financial, social and environmental areas.     

弱化缓冲算子修正的民航不安全事件离散灰色预测

为了掌握民航不安全事件的发展状况,并据此制定民航企事业单位的安全绩效考核指标,在民航不安全事件灰色预测的基础上引入离散灰色预测和弱化缓冲算子理论,基于中国民航2004—2013年不安全事件数据建立了弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型。通过中国民航2014—2015年不安全事件数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型的预测精度明显高于灰色预测(GM(1,1))模型和离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型,其中2阶平均弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型预测精度最高,采用该模型对2016—2020年我国民航不安全事件数进行了预测,预测结果为14 095、14 910、15 773、16 685、17 650。