基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。     

基于模糊网络分析法的机场旅客安检系统保障能力评估

为评估机场旅客安检系统的保障能力,并针对评估过程中存在的不确定性和指标中影响因素之间的不独立性,采用模糊网络分析法(Fuzzy-ANP)建立系统评估模型。在综合考虑安检影响因素的前提下,从人、机、环、管四方面建立了机场旅客安检系统保障能力评估指标体系。以某机场为例,应用模型进行实证分析得出结论,影响该机场旅客安检系统保障能力的主要因素为员工工作量、员工心理状况和设备完好率。研究表明,评价结果与该机场实际运营状况相符合,该方法能更好地满足机场运营安全管理的实际要求。     

土木建筑施工安全生产聚集性活动的安全专项管理

土木建筑安全生产形势严峻,重特大事故时有发生,因此控制工程建设过程的安全生产事故意义重大。基于作业条件危险性评价原理和安全生产责任与事故管理机制,提出土木建筑施工作业活动聚集性安全生产专项管理创新方法。基于国内相关研究成果,建议了土木建筑施工活动聚集性程度的分类标准、分级管理模式,以及聚集性活动安全专项管理计划。     

不同规模民用机场项目主要环境影响对比分析

按照在民航运输系统中所起的作用划分,我国民用机场可分为枢纽机场、干线机场和支线机场。由于建设规模、航空业务量不同,各类机场环境影响的范围、程度和特点也不尽相同。通过对国内机场建设项目环境影响的案例和相关研究成果进行总结,从声环境、环境空气、生态、水环境、固体废物等方面对比分析了不同规模机场的环境影响的特点,为机场选址、设计、规划等提供参考。     

论环境民事纠纷的可仲裁性

环境民事纠纷需要多元化的解决途径,可以考虑把仲裁作为解决环境民事纠纷的途径之一。可仲裁性标准是衡量各种纠纷是否可以提交仲裁的条件。依据可仲裁性标准对各种类型的环境民事纠纷进行分析,可以确定一部分环境民事纠纷具有可仲裁性。     

Monitoring Sustainable Forest Management in Different Jurisdictions

The concept of sustainable forest management (SFM) requires forest resource managers to monitor and collect information pertaining to their environmental, economic and social impact. There are increasing expectations from a variety of publics (government, customers, and other stakeholders) that forests be demonstrably well-managed, creating incentives for forest managers to design credible systems for assessing their management performance. It is against this background that local, national and international approaches to regulating forest practices have been evolving. This article reviews the different dimensions of governance as they relate to monitoring and information reporting in the forest sector. Specifically, it discusses the changing role of sovereignty, the effects of globalization and the emergence of civil society stakeholders in forestry-related decision-making. Concepts such as sovereignty and globalization have important implications for monitoring forest practices and for defining SFM. Whether SFM standard creation and enforcement involves a sovereign, shared-sovereignty or civil society approach will affect the level and nature of SFM monitoring. As a result, we need to better consider the concept of monitoring appropriate to the scale and intensity of operations, how monitoring and information reporting standards differ between jurisdictions, and what this means for independently verifying SFM at an inter-jurisdictional level.     

Environmental and socio-economic evaluation of four different sites for a domestic airport

During World War II, a military airport was built inside the city of Reykjavik. This airport then became the centre of domestic aviation for the whole country. Today, 50 years later, the airport tract has become valuable for urban development. The city government therefore wants the airport relocated. Four different sites have been considered. The first alternative is to maintain the airport in the same place. A second alternative is based on reclaiming land alongside the present airport. A third possible site is in a rugged lava field south of Reykjavik, and the fourth alternative is to move the domestic traffic to Keflavik International Airport about 60 km away. The relocation has become a hot issue in the country. The people living in the countryside want to keep the airport in the same place. On the other hand, people living in Reykjavik see the airport land as valuable potential for urban development close to the city centre. To approach this debate in an orderly fashion, the four sites have been studied from an environmental and socio-economic point of view. The four alternatives are classified by four different categories: (1) economy and capital investment, (2) social impacts, (3) direct environmental consequences, and (4) public safety. Firstly, the last three categories were evaluated and weighted, and all four alternatives graded according to their environmental quality. Secondly, using the results of a separate cost-effectiveness study, a Pareto optimality solution is suggested. Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate how the “environmental” factors through their variation can influence the final selection.     

浅析政府对环境民事诉讼不适当干预

随着我国经济发展，环境污染纠纷在不断增加。由于环境行政法律规范的缺陷和环境行政执法的不力，很多纠纷未能得到及时有效的解决，于是污染受害者不得不求助于环境民事诉讼程序。然而，政府部门对这些诉讼活动的不适当干预引起了一系列严重后果：降低了法律、政府和司法部门的权威性，加剧了环境质量的恶化，严重威胁了公众的生命健康和财产安全，不利于我国法制建设和可持续发展战略目标的实现。文章着重探讨了种种危害后果，并在此基础上分析了政府干预的动机和法院软弱的成因，最后提出了初步的建议。     

影响我国民航飞行安全的个体与组织因素——基于HFACS框架的事件分析

主要通过民航事故征候(事件)的分析,对影响飞行安全的人的因素进行研究。数据分析主要采用编码分析的方法,结果发现:在个体层面,对事故征候影响顺序是技能差错、决策差错与知觉差错;机组内部的沟通与协调不畅在各个飞行阶段都存在;在组织层面,监督、资源管理、文化与氛围是比较有影响的组织因素;组织内部与外部的信息界面是飞行安全的隐患之一。与此同时,分析了该项目研究的不足之处,提出改善民航飞行安全的建并指出今后研究的方向。     

基于FAHP的岗位交叉培训在民航安全管理中的应用

通过分析民航岗位安全培训的现状,发现培训内容仅局限于员工自身岗位的工作内容,而忽略了对于相关岗位之间衔接内容进行系统的培训,这非常不利于不同岗位间的协调;基于此提出了民航岗位交叉培训,通过对民航岗位间的具体关系进行分析,确定出需要进行交叉培训的岗位,利用FAHP模糊层次分析法选择出具体岗位之间的交叉培训方案,从而使民航系统内的岗位交叉培训更为系统化,使得民航系统安全管理更加行之有效。