多溴联苯醚暴露的神经行为效应及其毒理机制

溴代阻燃剂多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)是一类在各类环境介质、生物体和人体中均能检出的普遍存在的环境污染物。我国的主要污染源之一集中于东南部地区的电子废弃物回收场地。由于PBDEs具有结构稳定性、亲脂性和生物累积性,电子废弃物拆解回收活动对当地生态系统和居民健康存在着巨大的潜在风险。PBDEs的发育神经毒性受到研究者的极大关注,但其神经行为毒性效应和机制仍需深入研究。行为学效应既是内在神经毒性机制的外在反映,也是推测环境污染物在高级别生物学水平(如种群、群落)影响的最有力试验手段。近年来,基于视频追踪系统技术的商业行为学分析设备迅速发展,使行为学效应测试在环境毒理学领域具备极大的潜力。本文结合近年来国内外环境毒理学研究进展,回顾了PBDEs的神经行为毒性效应,包括运动行为、掠食行为和认知行为,并分析了其可能的毒理机制,最后总结了当前研究存在的问题和未来研究需要关注的重点方向。     

关天经济区农户农地流转行为研究

农地流转是现阶段实现农地规模经营的必经之路。本文基于关天经济区622份调查问卷,建立了农地流转的农户模型,利用Heckman两阶段模型研究了交易成本认知和农户禀赋对农户参与农地流转(转出)、农地流转率的影响。研究结果表明:(1)关天经济区农户参与农地流转的积极性不高,样本农户参与农地流转的仅为23%,农地流转率均值为11%;(2)流转价格了解程度、农地流转组织形式、农地流转合约期限和对外交通便利情况影响农户是否参与农地流转决策,而农地流转率仅受流转价格了解程度和农地流转契约形式影响;(3)劳动力和土地禀赋正向影响农户转出土地,农地流转率随农业生产能力增强而降低;(4)文化程度与农户是否参与农地流转、农地流转率呈现显著的负相关关系,与天水的农户相比,关中地区的农户更倾向于参与农地流转。因此,要促进农户参与农地流转、提升农地流转率,首先要加强农地流转政策的宣传力度,提高农户整体认知水平,增强农户农地流转政策的理解程度和接受能力;其次,深化农村土地产权改革,加快农地确权颁证,提升农户产权的稳定性和可预期性;再次,建立健全农地流转市场,完善市场在农地流转过程中的信号生成机制和传递功能,降低农地流转过程中的交易成本;第四,采取相应的激励政策提高农户土地、劳动力的利用程度,提升农户农业生产能力,避免农户在农地流转市场中的逆向选择行为;最后,建立有效的农地"经营权退出机制",将束缚在农业生产上的低效劳动力和土地释放出来,实现资源的最优化配置。     

混凝土大坝震害评估模型的研究及对黄河上游大坝的分析

利用前人所编的历代(共四代)地震烈度(地震动)区划图,组合叠加后得到一个综合烈度(地震动)。这种叠加是一个集成的专家系统综合认识结果,以此作为坝体可能遭受地震破坏危险的因素。初步研究建立了混凝土大坝震害评估模型,此模型是考虑了坝体的结构类型、建设年代、使用现状、场地条件、抗震设防水平等因素,用逐步线性拟合方法进行回归分析得到的。用此模型对汶川地震破坏的坝体进行了实例分析,分析结果比较符合实际。最后,用这个模型对黄河上游10座重点混凝土大坝做了震害评估分析。     

Cross-border radon index map 1:100?000 Lausitz - Jizera - Karkonosze - Region (northern part of the Bohemian Massif)

The first cross-border map describing the radon (Rn) risk from bedrock was assembled in the northern part of the Bohemian Massif at a scale 1:100?000. The map covers the area of Lausitz (Germany), Karkonosze (Czech Republic and Poland) and Jizera (Czech Republic). The map is based on 818 measurements of soil gas Rn in rock types of Precambrian to Mesozoic age with variable geology. Geographic information system (GIS) processing enabled a good coincidence of soil gas Rn concentrations between data from all three countries in lithologically adjacent rock types as well as the direct correlation to georeferenced indoor Rn values, which was tested using the Czech indoor Rn data. The method of data processing can contribute to assembling the European Geogenic Radon Map.     

贵州省自然灾害区域分异规律及分析方法研究

贵州省自然灾害严重，且种类多，区域差异明显。为了分析自然灾害区域分异规律，本文提出了灾害模数、灾害区域差异系数等概念，编制了贵州省灾害等级图。     

地质灾害专题地图编制研究

地质灾害专题制图是地质灾害系统研究成果的高层次综合。本文论述了地质灾害制图的目的、原则、特点、表示内容与方法,为规划决策提供地质灾害背景图件。     

车辆事故紧急呼救技术发展综述

综述了车辆事故紧急呼救技术的原理,从车辆事故检测识别技术、移动车辆定位技术、无线通信技术和地理信息系统几方面概述车辆事故紧急呼救技术的研究内容。进一步介绍车辆事故紧急呼救技术的国内外研究和应用现状,并从车辆事故识别技术、地图匹配及组合导航、集群通信及通信网络几方面总结并指出车辆事故紧急呼救技术的关键技术和难点。展望了车辆事故紧急呼救技术的发展趋势,并就我国发展车辆事故呼救技术的可行性和发展方向进行探讨。     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷研究进展

为构建更加符合驾驶员认知特性的出行信息环境,提高驾驶员出行信息服务水平,对ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷研究进展进行系统分析与评述.首先阐述了认知负荷的理论基础,随后分析了ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷的影响因素,同时分类解析了驾驶员内在认知负荷、外在认知负荷与相关认知负荷的产生根源,并对认知负荷的形成机理进行了分析;系统评述了驾驶员认知负荷的测量方法,最后基于驾驶员信息认知负荷提出了ATIS优化对策.结果表明:年龄、性别、受教育程度、月收入、出行经验是影响驾驶员认知负荷的主要因素;道路交通标志的版面设计与驾驶员的标志视认时间关联密切;驾驶过程中拨打手机及使用车载终端均会分散驾驶员注意力,增加驾驶员的信息认知负荷;较高的车速与音频播放等环境会对驾驶员的信息认知能力提出更高要求.     

页岩气压裂作业人因失误结构化辨识方法研究

为提高页岩气压裂作业人因失误辨识结果的全面性和针对性,建立一种结构化的人因失误辨识方法。通过概括辨识阶段的作业流程,建立作业人员行为模型,概述作业人员的行为阶段。利用筛选出的引导词辨识行为阶段人因失误。将该方法应用于页岩气压裂过程的替液阶段。结果表明,用引导词能明确辨识方向,减少头脑风暴时间以及对专家知识的依赖;辨识过程的动态调整能改善认知可靠性,使更多人因失误模式(与传统CREAM方法相比)被辨识出来。