Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

乡村振兴背景下社区居民旅游创业意愿研究——基于分布式认识理论

在乡村振兴背景下,选择兰州市榆中县浪街村社区为研究对象,依托分布式认知理论,构建了居民旅游创业意愿和影响因素模型。结果发现:(1)个人力因素不是形成创业意愿的决定性因素。(2)在地域力方面,大部分居民参与旅游创业的资源条件有限。(3)在文化力方面,领导和以领导为核心的社会关系网是旅游创业意愿形成和转变的决定性因素,并且能够将这种创业意愿转化为创业行为。在研究基础上,提出对策建议:注意培育旅游创业主体,增强现存社区创业能力,争取外部专家与辅助者的支持,以增强乡村旅游发展的可持续性。     

基于SWOT和战略地图分析的企业OHS战略制定与描述

职业健康安全（OHS）工作是企业生产与经营管理的重要保障,OHS战略是企业运营战略的一个重要组成部分。为促进OHS战略管理,运用SWOT分析法和战略地图法制定和描述企业OHS战略。采用SWOT分析方法,从优势、劣势、机会和威胁等方面分析企业OHS工作的发展态势,实现策略定位。基于战略管理理论,结合策略分析结论,提出企业的OHS战略。为促进战略执行,采用战略地图分析方法,从财务、客户、内部业务流程、学习与成长等维度进一步描述OHS战略规划。研究结果表明,结合SWOT分析法和战略地图分析法的优点,可对企业OHS发展态势进行客观预测以利于提出合理的OHS战略目标,并可对OHS战略进行详细分解以促进战略执行。以Z公司为实例详细阐述企业OHS战略制定的流程与思路,有助于企业OHS战略实施。     

事故的共性原因及其行为科学预防策略

任何事故都是有原因的,事故的原因可分为人和物两个方面,事故的严重度与事故频率间存在三角形分布规律.运用这三条安全科学基本原理和案例分析方法,分析多起不同类型事故.结果表明,事故的共性直接原因是安全知识、安全意识和安全习惯所引起的组织成员个体的不安全行为和物的不安全状态.用行为科学方法和系统化安全管理理论,制订了一个由规范组织成员个体安全行为的安全管理方案、个人行为纠正方法和安全培训组成的通用事故预防路线图,并阐述了路线图实施时所需要的组织行为分析、个人行为纠正和安全培训方法研究的最新进展.     

软骨藻酸神经毒性作用机制研究进展

在拟菱形藻引发的有毒赤潮中产生的记忆缺失性贝毒(amnesic shellfish poison,ASP)软骨藻酸,经贝类等海洋生物摄入进入食物链,在对海洋生物造成危害的同时,也对人类健康造成威胁。软骨藻酸中毒者临床上表现为呕吐、腹痛和头痛等症状,严重者出现神经系统功能紊乱,如昏迷、抽搐和记忆缺失。软骨藻酸结构上与兴奋性氨基酸谷氨酸相似,它可以通过直接活化KA(kainate)受体和AMPA(α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid)受体介导兴奋性神经毒。本文主要从线粒体功能紊乱、内质网应激和神经炎症等方面就软骨藻酸的神经毒性作用机制进行了综述。     

基于改进成功流法的消防系统可靠性研究

在多信号输入系统的可靠性研究中,传统GO法存在计算复杂、易出现误差和遗漏的缺点。将卡诺图化简法引入传统GO运算,利用其“合并同项,简化运算”的特点构建研究多信号输入系统可靠性的新GO模型。将其应用于预作用喷水灭火系统,对具有多启动方式的给水泵进行可靠性分析,并与事件树运算结果比较,证明新GO模型适用于具有多信号输入系统的可靠性研究。研究表明,通过采取措施降低多信号元器件故障概率可以提高系统整体可靠性。     

国际土壤质量研究热点与趋势——基于大数据的Citespace可视化分析

论文利用文献计量学方法定量分析了土壤质量研究领域的科学文献,结果显示国际土壤质量研究热点从有机质及其组分对管理措施的响应、微生物指标敏感性、土壤质量定义到土壤质量评价方法、评价指标和框架的完善,在农业生产和环境保护中的应用性不断加强。目前,土壤质量的监测及其对土壤修复、全球气候变化的响应是未来研究热点。主要研究趋势有：1）发展中国家将在土壤质量研究领域中发挥重要作用;2）土壤质量对土壤修复、全球气候变化的响应以及应对措施成为未来的研究重点;3）可持续发展仍然是土壤质量研究的主题,不同国家及地区应根据自身特点进行土壤质量评价、监测、修复研究,制定法律,保障土壤管理的规范化和可持续化。     

A Study of Computer-Based Task Performance Under Thermal Stress

A visual-visual dual computer task was designed to test the effect of the thermal environment on dual task performance. The temperatures selected for testing were 20 and 35 °C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). 34 volunteers were randomly assigned to 1 of the 2 temperature conditions. Individual differences in single task performance were controlled by equating the baselines of single task performance. Once individual differences in single task capacity were controlled, statistically significant differences in performance were demonstrated. Mean accuracy was computed over a 1-hr testing period in each temperature condition. Participants’ mean accuracy in the 35° condition (38.18%) was substantially lower than in the 20° condition (50.88%).     

How do leadership motives affect informal and formal leadership emergence?

To what extent and in what ways do leadership motives of potential leaders predict their informal and formal leadership assignments? To address these questions, we conducted two studies in a military setting. In the first study (n = 215), we examined a mediated‐moderation model in which we hypothesized that the motivation to lead (MTL) of candidates to an elite unit would predict their teamwork behaviors and their tendency to emerge as leaders of their peers. We further hypothesized that cognitive ability would interact with MTL to predict teamwork behaviors and that teamwork behaviors would mediate the relationship between this interaction and leadership emergence. In Study 2, we followed up 60 candidates who were selected to the unit and examined whether MTL would predict the extent to which they achieved formal leadership roles. The findings of Study 1 supported the hypotheses included in the moderated mediation model. In Study 2, as expected, MTL predicted formal leadership emergence. We discuss several theoretical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Cognitive Failures and Safety Performance in the Workplace

Introduction. The majority of industrial accidents occur because of human errors. Human error has different causes, however, in all cases cognitive abilities and limitations of human play an important role. Occupational cognitive failures are cognitively-based human errors that occur at work. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between occupational cognitive failures and safety consequences. Method. Personnel of a large industrial company in Iran filled out an occupational cognitive failure questionnaire (OCFQ) and answered questions on accidents. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between cognitive failures and safety consequences. Results. According to developed regression models, personnel with a high rate of cognitive failure, in comparison to low rate, have a high risk of minor injury involvement (OR 5.1, 95% CI [2.62, 10.3]); similar results were for major injury and near miss. Discussion. The results of this study revealed usefulness of the OCFQ as a tool of predicting safety-related consequences and planning preventive actions.