居民对垃圾焚烧发电态度的实证研究——以泰安市垃圾焚烧电厂为例

基于对山东省泰安市垃圾焚烧发电厂周边居民的调查数据,运用SPSS20.0统计软件对数据进行二元Logistic回归分析,探讨垃圾焚烧发电厂周边居民对电厂态度的影响因素。实证结果表明,受教育年限、是否被征求意见、是否接受物质补偿3个变量对周边居民的态度有显著的正向影响;而是否知道二噁英、居住地与电厂距离与周边居民态度呈显著负相关关系。结合相关研究,发现本研究中影响电厂周边居民态度的因素既有普遍性,也有其特殊性。     

考虑人群拥堵的疏散出口选择行为研究及建模

出口选择是疏散过程中最重要和复杂的决策行为之一,受到空间结构、人群分布和行人认知等多方面因素的影响,为了使疏散仿真能够合理地模拟出行人的寻路和逃生过程,提出了考虑人群拥堵的出口选择模型。该模型基于多元Logit离散选择模型,考虑到影响个体疏散时间的因素以及对不同出口类型的偏好。研究发现个体的疏散时间随着拥堵人群位置的不同而有所差异,从而以决策者而不是出口的角度定义了一个计数区域来估计影响决策者排队时间的人数。并且研究出口重新选择的触发条件和程序。将出口选择模型和程序引入BuildingEXODUS软件进行疏散仿真,通过对比显示,仿真结果更符合真实情况,特别是在具有障碍物和人群分布不均匀的场景中更显优势。     

公路隧道内CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气扩散CFD仿真

气体管束气瓶车是运输压缩天然气(Compressed Natural Gas, CNG)的重要工具,针对CNG管束气瓶车运输过程中在公路隧道内发生追尾导致泄漏问题,基于计算流体动力学CFD方法,建立CNG管束气瓶车遭追尾致泄漏后果预测与评估模型,对公路隧道内风场条件下泄漏天然气的扩散过程进行模拟与分析,研究CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气在隧道内的扩散规律和形成的危险区域范围。仿真结果表明:泄漏天然气扩散具有极速泄漏、外力作用、初期膨胀增长和稳定收缩等特征;喷射气云团能够覆盖肇事车辆前部,可能导致驾驶人员窒息或引发火灾、爆炸事故;实例工况下,泄漏气体扩散至稳态以后,形成爆炸极限浓度范围内的气云分布在肇事车辆前部1.5m至肇事车辆中部之间的区域;进行事故应急响应时,应封锁事故隧道,加强隧道内通风,在消防水枪的稀释掩护下对管束气瓶车进行堵漏作业。     

全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)对土壤跳虫的生态毒性

将两种跳虫(Folsomia candida和Folsomia fimetaria)暴露在全氟辛烷磺酸盐(perfluorooctane sulfonate,PFOS)污染的人工土壤中,利用跳虫存活数量、繁殖数量与回避行为来评价PFOS对跳虫的生态毒性。结果表明,PFOS对F.candida和F.fimetaria急性毒性的LC50(7d)分别为4777和2219mg·kg-1,慢性毒性的EC50(28d)分别为0.13和0.05mg·kg-1。此外,PFOS对两种跳虫回避行为影响的EC50(48h)分别为0.51mg·kg-1(F.candida)和0.31mg·kg-1(F.fimetaria)。分析比较发现,PFOS对跳虫急性死亡率影响很小,但对跳虫的回避行为和繁殖率有显著影响,可用来表征土壤中PFOS的生态毒性,且选用有性生殖的F.fimetaria及其慢性毒性实验来评价土壤中PFOS的毒性相对最灵敏。     

洞庭湖垸外灾害风险区湖洲高效生态农业模式研究

为了协调好防灾减灾与湖洲农业综合开发的关系,运用灾害学和循环经济学以及农业、林业、牧业、水产、生态、系统工程等科学交叉的理论与方法,将灾害防控技术体系、农业生产方式与高效生态农业结构的优化机理融为一体,设计了湖草洲畜、禽、鱼一体化开发的灭螺治鼠防洪技术集成模式,荻芦洲荻、芦、林、牧、农一体化开发的灭螺治鼠抗洪技术集成模式。并分别在典型区域进行了示范,试验表明：与传统农业生方式相比,生态、经济、社会三大效益十分显著。同时致力于湖洲农业产业化,认为在建设好优势农产品生产基地的基础上,大力发展与之相配套的产品加工等商品服务体系和市场体系,促进荻、芦、林、牧等产品精、深加工,延伸产业链,提高产品附加值,从整体上提高湖洲高效生态农业模式的综合效益,使之成为湖区农业经济的新增长点。     

自由飞行下基于高斯白噪声的碰撞风险模型

飞机的安全性在自由飞行中受到通信导航监视性能、人为因素、防撞系统等因素的影响,其中通信导航监视性能会导致飞机产生定位误差,这种定位误差具有高斯白噪声的特性。主要考虑飞行定位误差的高斯白噪声特性,将此误差用概率表示为以理论位置向外辐射,根据飞机的相对运动,建立基于高斯白噪声的碰撞风险模型,给出模型中各参数的求解方法,从而得到碰撞风险。最后用算例验证了模型的可行性,在现行的安全目标水平之下为相关运行部门提供相应的最小安全间距,为实际运行奠定一定的理论基础。     

Valuing floodplain protection and avoidance in a coastal watershed

Flood‐related losses in the United States are increasing despite large‐scale mitigation efforts. To offset the rising cost of floods, the US Congress passed legislation in 2014 that will augment insurance premiums to make the National Flood Insurance Program more actuarially sound. Consequently, there is interest in lowering flood‐related costs to the homeowner, both in terms of premiums and damage. This study addresses the issue by integrating premium savings and damages avoided based on several mitigation scenarios. Specifically, it examines how much policyholders within a watershed near Houston, Texas, could have saved between 1999 and 2009 had their communities introduced specific avoidance‐based mitigation activities. The results indicate that homeowners and communities can offset premium rises and a majority of the damage suffered through marginal expansions of such initiatives. However, the costs associated with their implementation could counter some of these savings, and hence they need to be considered in future work.     

机场建设对鸟类的影响及机鸟相撞防范措施

机鸟相撞,轻则鸟死机伤,重则机毁人亡,一直是困扰着各国航空飞行安全的重大问题。根据近几年在机场类建设项目环境影响评价中的工作经验,本文就机场鸟类保护与机场建设及避免机鸟相撞问题做一探讨,认为机场鸟类保护与避免机鸟相撞首先在机场建设时要认真做好区域鸟类资源调查,避开候鸟迁徙通道,掌握鸟类活动规律,在机场营运期应积极采取生态措施、工程措施及有效的管理等措施避免鸟类对飞机的威胁,确保飞行安全。     

Recognising one’s enemies: a functional approach to risk assessment by prey

Little has been done to compare the relative importance of various mechanisms through which prey assess the potential risk from natural enemies. We used predator-naive spider mites (Tetranychus urticae, Tetranychidae) to (1) compare the responses of prey to chemical cues from enemy and non-enemy species and (2) investigate the source of these cues. In the laboratory, we observed the distribution of T. urticae in response to cues from nine mite species, including (1) predators of spider mites, (2) predators/parasites of other animals, and (3) fungivores/pollen-feeders. When given a choice over 24 h, spider mites foraged and oviposited in fewer numbers on leaf discs that were previously exposed to predatory or parasitic mites (including species incapable of attacking spider mites) than on clean leaf discs (unexposed to mites). Interestingly, previous exposure of leaf arenas to fungivores and pollen-feeders had no significant effect on spider mite distribution. We then observed the response of T. urticae to cues from two species of predator that had been reared on a diet of either spider mites or pollen. T. urticae showed stronger avoidance of leaf discs that were previously exposed to spider-mite-fed predators than of discs exposed to pollen-fed predators. Nevertheless, for one predator species (Amblyseius andersoni), T. urticae still preferred to forage and oviposit on clean (unexposed) discs than on discs exposed to pollen-fed predators. Protein-derived metabolic wastes of predatory or parasitic mites may provide a general cue about potential predation risk for T. urticae. However, T. urticae also avoided areas exposed to pollen-fed predators, suggesting there may be other sources of enemy recognition by the spider mites. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that may influence the scope of information through which animals assess predation risk. Received: 11 January 1999 / Received in revised form: 25 October 1999 / Accepted: 20 November 1999     

旋流气浮工艺接触区气泡-颗粒碰撞理论研究

为了对旋流气浮过程中的动力学行为和气浮分离效率进行准确预测,在借鉴重力场下气泡-颗粒碰撞模型建立方法的基础上,考虑旋流气浮的特点,首次将表征流态的雷诺数引入到各种碰撞过程中,推导建立了旋流气浮接触区的气泡-颗粒碰撞效率模型.理论模型显示:低强度旋流气浮工艺中气泡-颗粒的各种碰撞效应主要与雷诺数、气泡和颗粒直径有关.当颗粒直径接近于分子直径时,即直径为1nm时,碰撞主要受扩散碰撞所控制;当颗粒在1~10nm之间时,碰撞主要受扩散碰撞和离心沉降效应的共同作用所控制;当颗粒在10nm~1μm时,碰撞主要受离心沉降效应所控制;当颗粒大于1μm时,碰撞将受截留效应、离心沉降效应和惯性效应联合作用.该模型能够准确预测旋流气浮过程中的动力学行为和分离效率,为旋流气浮工艺的实际应用提供一定的理论依据.