不同坡度对正庚烷流淌火燃烧特性的影响

针对液体燃油储运过程中泄漏引发的火灾爆炸事故,设计并搭建流淌槽坡度可调式液体燃油流淌火燃烧试验平台,开展连续泄漏正庚烷流淌火试验。选择水平表面(0°)流淌试验作为基准,改变流淌槽的坡度(0.5°,1°和3°),研究分析不同泄漏速率下连续泄漏正庚烷流淌火的燃烧面积、燃烧速率等燃烧特征参数的变化规律。结果表明:1)连续泄漏正庚烷流淌火燃烧特征参数均随泄漏速率增加而明显增加;2)坡度对连续泄漏正庚烷流淌火燃烧特性影响显著,即使流淌槽坡度增加0.5°,其燃烧特性即发生明显改变;3)连续泄漏正庚烷流淌火的平均稳定燃烧速率随流淌槽坡度的增加反而减小。     

楼梯间电动车火灾数值模拟研究

楼梯井电动车火灾呈典型的烟囱效应现象,短暂燃烧,浓烟迅猛,往往危害很大。模拟结合全尺寸实验结果,基于FDS软件对电动车在楼梯井内燃烧进行动态仿真,相关数据进行对比分析。研究结果表明:物理实验数据与数值模拟数据比较吻合,楼梯间平均温度370℃左右,最高温度超过1 000℃,楼梯间浓烟毒性很大;火焰卷吸处上方的无量纲温度随楼梯井竖直高度的增加而减小,同一区域的近墙处温度较高;火灾后期在喷淋作用下,CO浓度在火灾熄灭阶段有所增加。     

一种基于数据融合的林火火线动态蔓延预测方法的研究

准确预测林火蔓延对于有效防治野火危害具有重要意义。传统林火蔓延速度场经验模型需要可燃物特性、坡度、温度及湿度等众多实测参数,由于参数均具有不同的时空分布,限制了模型的实际应用。因此提出速度场实时测量及水平集法模拟林火蔓延两种技术相结合的方法,通过测定火蔓延锋面的位置获取当前时刻锋面处的速度场分布并对此速度场在未燃烧区域进行延拓,结合水平集法预测林火蔓延,并使用数值模拟及实验数据验证了该方法能够有效预测短期内林火蔓延趋势,得出基于速度场的数据融合方法可满足实际林火蔓延建模的需求。     

火灾环境下多层建筑的人员疏散路径模型研究

针对公共路段人员交汇出现的疏散速度减缓问题,构建了一个多层建筑的人员疏散最优路径模型。该模型以优先满足疏散时间较长的楼层为前提,保证任意时刻任意路径的人员流量不为零,同时优先使最短路径达到人员流量饱和,在此基础上对其算法步骤进行了改进。最后结合实例进行验证,结果表明,本模型可以更加准确地预估疏散所需时间。     

城市消防安全影响因素及评估体系研究——以海南某沿海城市为例

在前人评估重点研究公共消防基础、灭火救援力量的基础上,增加消防安全形势、火灾防控工作对城市消防安全影响因素的研究,以海南某沿海城市为例,采用层次分析法构建城市消防安全评估体系,设置定量化评分判定基准,运用模糊集值统计法计算得分。评估结果表明体系更真实地反映了该市消防安全现状及火灾防控薄弱环节,最后针对高风险项提出具体改进措施。该体系模型丰富了评估指标数量;宏观考虑了该市热带气候、旅游型城市特征、火灾情况对消防安全形势的影响;更重要的是,提出将社会面火灾防控工作纳入评估体系。研究对于城市消防安全评估的宏观化、系统化、地域化、实用化、定量化都有一定参考意义。     

地铁同站台高架换乘车站火灾全尺寸实验研究-(1)火灾场景设计

为研究地铁同站台高架换乘车站火灾烟气蔓延特性和防排烟技术,对具有该换乘形式的某实体车站进行全尺寸火灾实验方案设计,结合车站通风排烟模式和列车运行模式,对站厅层、站台层和设备区分别设计不同规模的火灾场景,同时在站内各防烟分区设计安装烟气温度测量装置和流速测试装置,实现同站台高架换乘车站不同结构空间内烟气危险性参数的实时测量。按照本文设计的实验方案在该车站开展了一系列全尺寸实验,后续的研究中将详细介绍不同火源规模、火源位置、通风方式和列车运行模式下的实验结果。     

The Role of Communication in Preparation for Wildland Fire: A Literature Review

Fire regimes are needed for healthy forest ecosystems, but citizens who live parallel to public forests do not always understand or favour the mechanisms land managers use for fire prevention and preparation. One way that land managers and citizens may share concerns and overcome barriers is through effective communication, allowing both parties to adequately prepare for a wildfire event. While collaboration between land managers and citizens has been well studied, the research on communication between citizens and among land managers is less prevalent yet equally important. The lack of research on communication between these parties creates an incomplete picture of the spectrum of communication that takes place in preparation for a wildland fire event. This paper reviews the current literature on communication between and among citizens and land managers before a wildfire event.     

火灾规律双重性模型及其对室内漏油火灾的分析

火灾的规律具有双重性:确定性和随机性。只有既研究其确定性又研究其随机性,并进而研究二者的综合才能完整地认识火灾的规律。本文提出火灾双重性规律的学术思想,通过构造室内漏油火灾的确定性和随机性模型,阐明运用火灾双重性规律表述火灾过程的具体方法。文中用微机实施的大量计算表明,该模型能方便地预言:发生室内漏油火灾时,室内设备是否会损坏以及可能被损坏的概率.     

System failure probability evaluation using fault tree analysis and expert opinions in intuitionistic fuzzy environment

In quantitative fault tree analysis of a system, exact failure probability values of components are utilized to calculate the failure probability of the system. However, in many real world problems, it is problematic to get precise and sufficient failure data of system components due to insufficient or imprecise information about components, changing environment or new components. A methodology has already been developed by employing fuzzy set theory for the system reliability evaluation by utilizing qualitative failure data of system components when quantitative failure data of components are inaccessible or insufficient. This paper extends the concept of fuzzy set to intuitionistic fuzzy set and proposes a novel approach to evaluate system failure probability using intuitionistic fuzzy fault tree analysis with qualitative failure data of system components. The qualitative failure data such as expert opinions are collected as linguistic terms. These linguistic terms are then quantified by triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers in form of membership function and non-membership function. Additionally, a method is developed for combining the different opinions of experts. To illustrate the applicability of proposed approach, a case study of the crude oil tank fire and explosion accident is performed. The obtained results are very close to the results from pre-existing approaches which confirm that the proposed approach is a more realistic alternative for the study of system reliability in intuitionistic fuzzy environment when quantitative failure data of system components are not known. To help decision makers for improving the security execution of the crude oil tank system, importance measures including Fussell-Vesely importance and cut sets importance are also executed.     

危险化学品仓储事故演化规律及消防力量需求研究

危险化学品仓储火灾事故复杂,处置难度大,易引发事故多米诺效应,对人民的生命和财产造成严重威胁。本文分析了危化品仓储火灾爆炸事故的演化规律和事故风险,结合事故案例剖析危化品仓储火灾爆炸事故后果及对周边区域的影响。针对危险化学品仓储火灾爆炸事故,建立危化品仓储火灾扑救泡沫需求评价二级指标体系,采用模糊层次分析法建立了泡沫灭火剂用量评价数学模型,并根据救援力量类别需求、各种应急救援装备与作战人员需求建立危化品火灾消防力量需求预测模型,准确预测危化品仓储事故消防力量需求。