西江年最高水位的神经网络预报模型

对西江洪水发生的特征进行分析表明，洪水发生频率高，具有明显阶段性特征，并与流域面雨量密切相关。利用前期环流场、海表温度（SST）场及环流特征量资料选择初选预报因子，然后对初选预报因子作EOF分解构造综合预报因子，结合人工神经网络方法建立了西江年最高水位预报模型，并对预报模型进行独立样本试验。结果表明，该预报模型对历史样本拟合精度高，试报效果明显好于传统的逐步回归模型，可在汛期预测业务中应用。     

基于BP网络的建筑安装施工现场安全综合评价的研究

针对目前我国建筑安装施工现场安全评价技术的不成熟和欠科学性的现状 ,笔者分析和综合了目前安全评价技术 ,结合建筑业特点 ,提出了基于BP神经网络的建筑安装施工现场安全评价方法 ,并对该评价模型的原理、方法及算法进行了研究。首先 ,结合建筑安装施工现场安全生产的特点建立评价指标体系 ,随后 ,运用层次分析法确定指标及准则层的权重 ,并运用模糊综合评价法生成评价样本集 ,最后 ,利用样本集训练BP网络 ,待误差满足要求后 ,即可运用训练成功的BP神经网络进行安全评价。     

推广工伤保险对我国生产事故统计的影响

我国安全生产统计工作所依托的行政手段还不能完全适应变化中的市场经济环境 ,政府安全生产管理不到位 ,监管不严 ,各类事故的少报、瞒报、不报现象相当普遍 ,极大地影响了伤亡事故统计的准确性。2 0 0 4年我国已实施新的《工伤保险条例》 ,笔者认为 ,会在一个较长的时期内对生产事故统计带来较明显的影响 ,使生产事故造成的伤亡人数统计变得更为全面和科学 ,这种影响必然会对原有统计偏差的修正 ,有利于今后加强和完善对安全生产的宏观决策和管理 ,会从根本上促进安全生产水平的提高。     

乌江下游地区旅游业开发可行性评判方法

在考察乌江下游地区旅游资源的基础上,设置了开发该地区旅游业项目的可行性评价指标体系.通过AHP法对各层次指标因子赋权,建立旅游业开发可行性的模糊综合评判模型,为开发乌江流域的旅游资源提供了科学的决策依据.     

塔里木河中游段治理中的牧区水利建设

塔里木河中下游地区生态环境急剧恶化,最主要的原因是中游段河水近一半21×108m3被人为的散失,造成下游河水所剩无几,致使尾闾台特玛湖干涸。解决的根本办法是将中下游段两岸的农牧民迁出,实现人为耗水为零。近期切实可行的办法是积极开展牧区水利建设,改变牧业生产方式,集中高效利用塔河水资源,发展人工草地,改良天然草场,实现牧业生产生态环境的协调发展,人与自然和谐相处。     

CHEMISTRY OF COALBED METHANE DISCHARGE WATER INTERACTING WITH SEMI‐ARID EPHEMERAL STREAM CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to examine the chemistry of Coalbed Methane (CBM) discharge water reacting with semi‐arid ephemeral stream channels in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming. The study area consisted of two ephemeral streams: Burger Draw and Sue Draw. These streams are tributaries to the perennial Powder River. Samples were collected bimonthly from three CBM discharge points and seven channel locations in Burger Draw and Sue Draw. Samples were also collected bimonthly from the Powder River above and below the confluence of Burger Draw. Before sample collection, the pH and electrical conductivity (EC) were measured in the field. Samples were transported to the laboratory and analyzed for alkalinity, major cations, and anions. From the measurement of sodium (Na), calcium (Ca), and magnesium (Mg), practical sodium adsorption ratio (SARp) and true sodium adsorption ratio (SARt) were calculated. Results suggest pH and EC of CBM discharge water was 7.1 and 4.3 dS/m, respectively. The CBM discharge water consisted of higher concentrations of sodium and alkalinity compared to other components. The pH of CBM discharge water increased significantly (p = 0.000) in the downstream channel of Burger Draw from 7.1 to 8.84 before it joined with the Powder River. Dissolved calcium concentration of CBM discharge water decreased significantly (p = 0.000) in the downstream channel water. Subsequently, SARp increased approximately from 24 to 29. The SARt also increased significantly (p = 0.001) in the downstream channel water. For instance, SARt of CBM discharge water increased from 32.93 to 45.5 downstream channels after the confluence of Sue Draw with the Burger Draw. The only significant difference in water chemistry above and below the confluence of Burger Draw with the Powder River was pH, which increased from 8.36 to 8.52. The significant increase in SAR values of CBM discharge water in Burger Draw and Sue Draw tributaries suggest a careful monitoring of salinity and sodicity is needed if CBM discharge water is used for irrigation in semi‐arid environments. Results discussed in this study will be useful to downstream water users who depend on water for irrigation.     

多级模糊综合评判方法在泥石流评价中的应用

介绍了多级模糊综合评判方法在泥石流评价中的应用, 指出了在进行模糊评判的时候,评判因子的选取以及隶属函数的构造应具体结合泥石流自身的特点来进行,并应用此方法对西南某拟建水电站坝址附近泥石流沟危险性做出了评价,评价结果与实际调查结果比较吻合.     

废电池综合利用新技术与工艺

介绍了国内外废电池处理现状,对近年来废电池处理的新技术与工艺做了详细评述.同时,针对我国废电池资源化处理过程中遇到的问题,提出了相应的对策.     

基于模糊理论的加油站安全评价方法研究

加油站安全状况是一个涉及多因素、多层次结构的非线性系统.本文针对加油站特点分析构建了加油站安全评价指标因素体系,并运用层次分析法在确定各评价指标因素相对权重的基础上,基于模糊数学理论,建立了加油站安全综合评价数学模型,并对该模型进行了实例验证,为加油站的安全评价提供了一种有效的综合评价方法.     

Status and fuzzy comprehensive assessment of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide pollution in the Taihu Lake region of China

The status of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide (OCPs; i.e. HCH and DDT) pollution was investigated and the soil environmental quality of the Taihu Lake watershed, one of the most developed regions in China, was evaluated using a fuzzy comprehensive assessment. Statistical analyses showed the presence of combined pollution in the soil. At many sampling sites, heavy metal concentrations were above corresponding background values, indicating the effects of extraneous pollutants. It has been over 20 years since China banned the use of OCPs, but they can still be found in soil samples of this region. HCH levels at all investigated sites were below the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soils. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment showed that the overall soil quality in this region could be categorized as class I. Nevertheless, the high coefficients of variation for levels of DDT, Cd and Hg indicated the existence of some point-source pollution. Continuous monitoring and further studies of the region are recommended to prevent pollution of farmland from these sources.