Humanitarian (in)security: risk management in complex settings

Attacks against humanitarian aid workers have received increasing attention in the media, particularly high-profile incidents such as those against the hospitals of Médecins Sans Frontières in Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen. Concurrently, scholarly research has given rise to a number of articles, white papers, and books on humanitarian insecurity. Most of this work centres on external threats, neglecting the internal mechanisms that humanitarian organisations use to mitigate security situations. This paper builds on the existing literature by focusing on the decision-making processes of humanitarian organisations, drawing on data collected from 16 security managers or advisers. The findings reveal that several factors contribute to contextual uncertainty and complexity, including recipient perceptions, local government actions, the behaviour of other non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the area, logistical issues, risk variance within a single location, and organisational mandate. Furthermore, the results indicate that NGOs utilise a combination of decision-making processes to determine how to manage security in high-risk environments.     

Evaluation of a Three‐Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model Applied to Chesapeake Bay Through Long‐Term Simulation of Transport Processes

A numerical model, the Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3‐Dimensions, Waterway Experiment Station version (CH3D‐WES), was applied to represent transport processes of the Chesapeake Bay. Grid resolution and spatial coverage, tied with realistic bathymetry, ensured dynamic responses along the channel and near the shoreline. The model was run with the forcing ranges from high frequency astronomical tides to lower frequency meteorological forcing, given by surface wind and heat flux, as well as hydrological forcing given by fresh water inflows both from upstream and distributed sources along the shoreline. To validate the model, a long‐term simulation over seven‐year time period between 1994 and 2000 was performed. The model results were compared with existing observation data including water level time series, which spans over a wide spectrum of time scales, and long‐term variations in salinity structures over varying parts of the Bay. The validated model is set to provide an appropriate transport mechanism to the water quality model through linkage, warranting that the model takes into account the complexity in time and spatial scales associated with the dynamic processes in the Chesapeake.     

Ecological Trap for Desert Lizards Caused by Anthropogenic Changes in Habitat Structure that Favor Predator Activity

Abstract: Anthropogenic habitat perturbation is a major cause of population decline. A standard practice managers use to protect populations is to leave portions of natural habitat intact. We describe a case study in which, despite the use of this practice, the critically endangered lizard Acanthodactylus beershebensis was locally extirpated from both manipulated and natural patches within a mosaic landscape of an afforestation project. We hypothesized that increased structural complexity in planted patches favors avian predator activity and makes these patches less suitable for lizards due to a heightened risk of predation. Spatial rarity of natural perches (e.g., trees) in arid scrublands may hinder the ability of desert lizards to associate perches with low‐quality habitat, turning planted patches into ecological traps for such species. We erected artificial trees in a structurally simple arid habitat (similar to the way trees were planted in the afforestation project) and compared lizard population dynamics in plots with these structures and without. Survival of lizards in the plots with artificial trees was lower than survival in plots without artificial trees. Hatchlings dispersed into plots with artificial trees in a manner that indicated they perceived the quality of these plots as similar to the surrounding, unmanipulated landscape. Our results showed that local anthropogenic changes in habitat structure that seem relatively harmless may have a considerable negative effect beyond the immediate area of the perturbation because the disturbed habitat may become an ecological trap.     

The Impact of Asynchronicity on Event‐Flow Estimation in Basin‐Scale Hydrologic Model Calibration1

Abstract: The calibration of basin‐scale hydrologic models consists of adjusting parameters such that simulated values closely match observed values. However, due to inevitable inaccuracies in models and model inputs, simulated response hydrographs for multiyear calibrations will not be perfectly synchronized with observed response hydrographs at the daily time step. An analytically derived formula suggests that when timing errors are significant, traditional calibration approaches may generally underestimate the total event‐flow volume. An event‐adaptive time series is developed and incorporated into the Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency objective function to diagnose the potential impact of event‐flow synchronization errors. Test sites are the 50 km² Subwatershed I of the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREWswI) in southeastern Georgia, and the 610 km² Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma, with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool used as the hydrologic model. Results suggest that simulated surface runoff generation is 55% less for LREWswI when the daily time series is used compared with when the event‐adaptive technique is used. Event‐flow generation may also be underestimated for LWREW, but to a lesser extent than it may be for LREWswI, due to a larger portion of the event flow being lateral flow.     

Assessing Linkages in Stream Habitat,Geomorphic Condition,and Biological Integrity Using a Generalized Regression Neural Network

Watershed managers often use physical geomorphic and habitat assessments in making decisions about the biological integrity of a stream, and to reduce the cost and time for identifying stream stressors and developing mitigation strategies. Such analysis is difficult since the complex linkages between reach‐scale geomorphic and habitat conditions, and biological integrity are not fully understood. We evaluate the effectiveness of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) to predict biological integrity using physical (i.e., geomorphic and habitat) stream‐reach assessment data. The method is first tested using geomorphic assessments to predict habitat condition for 1,292 stream reaches from the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. The GRNN methodology outperforms linear regression (69% vs. 40% classified correctly) and improves slightly (70% correct) with additional data on channel evolution. Analysis of a subset of the reaches where physical assessments are used to predict biological integrity shows no significant linear correlation, however the GRNN predicted 48% of the fish health data and 23% of macroinvertebrate health. Although the GRNN is superior to linear regression, these results show linking physical and biological health remains challenging. Reasons for lack of agreement, including spatial and temporal scale differences, are discussed. We show the GRNN to be a data‐driven tool that can assist watershed managers with large quantities of complex, nonlinear data.     

蓄热式加热炉中温度场分析

以一套蓄热式加热炉为物理模型,数值分析了加热过程中燃气速度、助燃空气速度、助燃空气预热温度以及助燃空气中氧含量对加热炉中钢坯附近区域温度场分布的影响,得出了这些因素对加热炉中钢坯位置附近温度的影响情况与影响规律.研究结果将为蓄热式加热炉在我国的推广与设计提供技术参数和参考模型.     

底隙十字挡板对四边形流化床流体力学性能优化数值模拟

通过置入内构件实现流化床底隙区多相流矢量由混沌到归一的转化可获得床体内流体流化性能的改善.基于此,以底隙区置入十字挡板的四边形流化床为研究对象,使用Fluent软件进行三维可视化模拟,利用Eulerian-Eulerian双流体模型模拟其在厌氧、水解及好氧条件下优化反应器流体力学性能的能力,考察置入挡板前后流化床内流场、液相运动速率、气体相含率及湍流耗散率的反馈变化,分析其对流体运动的影响,并提出工程优化设计的方向.结果表明:底隙区置入十字挡板后,四边形流化床内液体循环速度最大提升15.7%,在上升区截面上的分布更加均匀,液速峰值下降,有利于维持活性污泥的团聚作用,对提高流化床污泥负荷有利;整体气含率下降3.5%~6.9%,应用时可加入漏斗型内构件予以改进;在水解与好氧生物的模拟过程中,底隙区十字挡板的置入更能优化水力条件,湍流动能耗散率最大降低31.9%,对降低系统能耗提供了有利证据.研究证明,反应器内构件的设置通过流体力学性能的数值模拟可以成为一种优化开发的捷径技术.     

改性环氧有机涂层的电偶腐蚀行为模拟分析

目的 实现二氧化钛-还原氧化石墨烯改性环氧防腐涂层在海洋工程应用下的电偶腐蚀行为分析。方法 以还原氧化石墨烯、二氧化钛为纳米填料,制备改性环氧防腐涂层,并以此涂层为模型,利用有限元计算软件,研究改性环氧涂层存在微观缺陷情况下,涂层抑制金属电偶腐蚀的作用规律。结果 改性环氧涂层可以有效抑制金属电偶腐蚀问题。计算研究了缺陷涂层在不同孔洞宽度和分布状态下,涂层对电偶腐蚀的抑制程度。当缺陷涂层孔洞宽度为500 μm,阴阳面积比为2︰1时,电位差最小为1.05×10^–6 V,可以有效抑制电偶腐蚀。结论 二氧化钛-还原氧化石墨烯的添加,可以填补涂层空隙,阻碍水渗透,有效提高环氧涂层的防腐性能。利用有限元模拟计算可得,涂层破损时会发生局部严重腐蚀,最终造成工程结构的失效。     

多纤维捕集过程中细颗粒湍流团聚模拟研究

基于随机多层纤维过滤介质算法建立了平板式三维拟态化结构.利用计算流体力学-颗粒群平衡模型（CFD-PBM）对多纤维捕集过程中细颗粒湍流团聚进行数值模拟研究,并采用分区法求解颗粒群平衡方程（PBE）.通过控制变量法分析表明：多纤维捕集过程中存在着明显的颗粒团聚行为.粉尘颗粒的团聚程度随停留时间增加而增强,当t ≥ l/v（速度方向模型尺寸长度/入口风速）,团聚逐渐趋于稳定;当v_max·t ≤ l,入口风速越大,颗粒团聚程度和团聚速率越大,最终的团聚程度取决于入口风速和停留时间;颗粒粒径越大,粉尘颗粒的团聚程度和团聚速率越小.出口颗粒平均粒径与初始粒径相比增长倍数越小.粉尘颗粒体积分数越大,颗粒团聚程度以及团聚速率越大.当v=0.1m/s,d_p=1.0μm,VF >0.003636,Bin-7~Bin-0区间数量浓度对数分布呈线性比例关系.