危险品运输网络优化设计研究综述

为分析当今反恐新形势下的危险品运输网络优化设计问题的研究现状,系统总结国内外关于一般场景和恐怖袭击威胁2种情况下危险品运输网络优化设计研究的主要模型和方法,梳理两者现有的研究内容,并讨论其共性及恐怖袭击威胁情景下的研究的新特点。结果发现:目前关于解决危险品运输网络优化设计问题模型的鲁棒性研究较为缺乏,尤其是模型在更为复杂和不确定性更强的恐怖袭击情景中适用性不强;危险品运输的鲁棒优化模型即使在突发事件条件下,也可以使决策者能够作出相对满意的决策;鲁棒性危险品运输网络能够规避风险扰动,可用来防止在恐怖袭击中因危险品车辆爆炸等造成更大的危害。     

Livelihoods,conflict and aid programming: is the evidence base good enough?

In conflict‐affected situations, aid‐funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict‐affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods—this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict‐affected settings.     

Aggregating high-priority landscape areas to the parcel level: an easement implementation tool

Landscape characteristics and parcel ownership information are often collected on different spatial scales leading to difficulties in implementing land use plans at the parcel level. This study provides a method for aggregating highly resolute landscape planning information to the parcel level. Our parcel prioritization model directly incorporates a Land Trust's conservation goals in the form of a compromise programming model. We then demonstrate the use of our approach for implementation decisions, including parcel selection under a budget constraint and the estimation of a total conservation budget necessary to meet specific conservation goals. We found that these cost constraints significantly alter the composition of the 'best' parcels for conservation and can also provide guidance for implementation. The model's results were integral to a local Land Trust's ability to further define and achieve their goals.     

Stochastic bycatch, informational asymmetry, and discarding

The existing literature (i) examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and (ii) treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels. Using a dynamic representative agent model in a two-stock resource, this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters, one of which imposes a stochastic “technological externality” (bycatch) on the other. In addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry, three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case: taxes, trip limits, and value-based quotas. Implementation and enforcement costs aside, taxes dominate both types of quota, and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding. In simulations, relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process, differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks, relative efficiency of the harvester types, and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins.     

平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。     

战略环境影响评价程序设计的探讨

政策是分阶段作用于生态环境的规律,故可将战略环境影响评价分析程序分为三个分程序①政策审查分析和生态评价;②政策与生态环境相互作用的作用机制和作用网络分析程序 ;③政策环境影响量化和计算程序.对每个分程序的分析原理、依据、方法、技术、手段、步骤进行了简明扼要地分析.     

INTEGRATING HUMANS IN ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT USING MULTI‐CRITERIA DECISION MAKING1

ABSTRACT: The Ecosystem Management (EM) process belongs to the category of Multi‐Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems. It requires appropriate decision support systems (DSS) where “all interested people” would be involved in the decision making process. Environmental values critical to EM, such as the biological diversity, health, productivity and sustainability, have to be studied, and play an important role in modeling the ecosystem functions; human values and preferences also influence decision making. Public participation in decision and policy making is one of the elements that differentiate EM from the traditional methods of management. Here, a methodology is presented on how to quantify human preferences in EM decision making. The case study of the National Park of River Nestos Delta and Lakes Vistonida and Ismarida in Greece, presented as an application of this methodology, shows that the direct involvement of the public, the quantification of its preferences and the decision maker's attitude provide a strong tool to the EM decision making process. Public preferences have been given certain weights and three MCDM methods, namely, the Expected Utility Method, Compromise Programming and the Analytic Hierarchy Process, have been used to select alternative management solutions that lead to the best configuration of the ecosystem and are also socially acceptable.     

A SPATIAL LINEAR PROGRAM FOR OPTIMALLY SCHEDULING FOREST MANAGEMENT TO MEET STORMFLOW OBJECTWES1

ABSTRACT: A spatial linear program that strategically arranges and schedules forest treatments so as to meet peak stormflow objectives is formulated and demonstrated. The approach uses simulated spatial routing of stormflows nested as short‐term time schedules within longer‐term forest planning time periods. A simple case example is used to demonstrate the formulation and explore its spatial sensitivity.     

Irrigation Water Allocation Using an Inexact Two‐Stage Quadratic Programming with Fuzzy Input under Climate Change

Agricultural irrigation accounts for nearly 70% of the total water use around the world. Uncertainties and climate change together exacerbate the complexity of optimal allocation of water resources for irrigation. An interval‐fuzzy two‐stage stochastic quadratic programming model is developed for determining the plans for water allocation for irrigation with maximum benefits. The model is shown to be applicable when inputs are expressed as discrete, fuzzy or random. In order to reflect the effect of marginal utility on benefit and cost, the model can also deal with nonlinearities in the objective function. Results from applying the model to a case study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, China, show schemes for water allocation for irrigation of different crops in every month of the crop growth period under various flow levels are effective for achieving high economic benefits. Different climate change scenarios are used to analyze the impact of changing water requirement and water availability on irrigation water allocation. The proposed model can aid the decision maker in formulating desired irrigation water management policies in the wake of uncertainties and changing environment.     

Spatial cost efficiency in waste paper handling: the case of corrugated board in Sweden

This paper analyzes the spatial cost efficiency of the Swedish legislation regarding waste disposal handling. We focus on the case of corrugated board and recognize that the different counties in Sweden possess different economic prerequisites in terms of waste paper recovery and utilization potential. We employ data for six corrugated board mills and 20 counties and a non-linear programming model to identify the least cost strategy for reaching the politically specified recycling target of a 65% recovery rate for corrugated board. That is, the total costs of recovering a minimum of 65% in each county are calculated and compared with the case when the country as a whole recovers 65% of all old corrugated board is collected but there exist no uniform target for each county. The conclusion is that from an efficiency point of view the recovery efforts should be concentrated to the highly populated and urbanized counties, and not be uniformly divided throughout the country. In the base case, the results suggest that the cost efficient county-specific recovery rates should range from 51 to 72%.