不确定条件下应急资源分配区间规划模型研究

为获得有限应急资源条件下满足多个目标的最优分配方案,提高事故应急救援效率,对某化工园区化工事故的应急物资分配进行了研究。在传统线性规划基础上引入区间数描述物资需求量和物资运输时间的不确定性,并以应急物资分配的经济性、时效性和公平性为目标,建立了多目标线性区间规划模型,并将所建模型应用于以化工园区为背景的化工事故中,同时为验证该模型的有效性,将提出的多目标区间规划模型与多目标确定性规划模型相比较。结果表明,区间规划模型得到的结果比较可观,可为相关决策单位应急资源分配提供参考,同时区间规划也是对传统资源配置分析方法的有益补充。     

大面积停电下配电网重要用户的应急供电策略研究

为研究电网较长时间停电环境下应急发电车与发电燃油供应协同优化调度问题,首先在电力公司管理现状基础上,通过对重要用户识别分析,按照是否自行配备发电机将重要用户进行分类,针对已经配备发电机的用户,重点考虑周期性供应燃油,对未配备发电机的用户,电力公司需紧急调度有限移动应急发电车,据此构建2阶段的移动应急发电车和油料供应模型以保证重要用户的紧急供电不会中断（第1阶段为电力公司应急发电车指派,第2阶段为加油站油料补充分配）。然后,将该调度问题转化为移动应急发电车指派问题和运油车路径问题的非线性混合模型,针对非线性目标函数和约束条件,通过引入大M法和变量替换进行线性化,得到混合整数线性规划,最小化负荷损失和成本为目标。最后,以某市电网重要用户为例,验证上述模型有效性,并通过原模型与聚类模型对比强调有限移动应急发电车的有效利用具备一定重要性。研究结果对电网公司保障应急供电具有重要指导意义。     

A case study of resources management planning with multiple objectives and projects

Each National Park Service unit in the United States produces a resources management plan (RMP) every four years or less. The plans commit budgets and personnel to specific projects for four years, but they are prepared with little quantitative and analytical rigor and without formal decision-making tools. We have previously described a multiple objective planning process for inventory and monitoring programs (Schmoldt and others 1994). To test the applicability of that process for the more general needs of resources management planning, we conducted an exercise on the Olympic National Park (NP) in Washington State, USA. Eight projects were selected as typical of those considered in RMPs and five members of the Olympic NP staff used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to prioritize the eight projects with respect to their implicit management objectives. By altering management priorities for the park, three scenarios were generated. All three contained some similarities in rankings for the eight projects, as well as some differences. Mathematical allocations of money and people differed among these scenarios and differed substantially from what the actual 1990 Olympic NP RMP contains. Combining subjective priority measures with budget dollars and personnel time into an objective function creates a subjective economic metric for comparing different RMP’s. By applying this planning procedure, actual expenditures of budget and personnel in Olympic NP can agree more closely with the staff’s management objectives for the park.     

PROCEDURE FOR THE ECONOMICAL EVALUATION OF WATER NETWORKS' PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: The Generalized Geometric Programming and Branch and Bound technique are used to reach optimally designed water systems with their variables in integer forms. The water systems and constraints are formulated by sets of nonlinear equations. A solution for a specific water system is presented.     

AN APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: AN ECONOMIC VIEW1

ABSTRACT: Individuals involved in state water resource planning generally have avoided any development of a comprehensive public water planning investment model that would set the stage for quantitative recommendations of a “what ought to be” tone for future water strategies. Three New Hampshire towns were selected to illustrate the usefulness of a mixed integer multiperiod programming model that utilizes hydrologic and economic data for identifying the discounted least cost of water supply, distribution, and scheduling. Comparisons are made regarding the feasibility of a regional water system approach versus independent “town by town” water supplies that presently prevail. To analyze the sensitivity of optimal water planning solutions to projected water demands, variations in these demands are made.     

水资源调配的动态规划研究

以动态规划理论为依据，阐述水资源调配的动态规划过程，并以实例分析计算出水资源动态调配的最优调配量。     

A SCREENING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Techniques of optimization and simulation are merged to select the most efficient arrangement of components for regional water resources development and management. Application is made to the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska. The Basin extends over 7,000 square miles and includes 184 proposed reservoirs. Structure sizes, locations and operating policies are selected for optimal plans based on economic efficiency and regional development. Results indicate that substantial savings in time and costs over conventional planning techniques are effected. Agreement between model output and agency design values was noted.     

水库生态调度模型及算法研究

随着我国大规模流域开发,大量水库建设对河流生态系统造成了较大影响,如何通过水库合理调度来减轻水库对河流生态环境的负面影响,是当前水库运行调度研究中的一个热点问题。针对现行水库调度过分强调经济利益而忽视生态环境需水状况,致使部分大坝下游和库区发生生态环境退化的现象,从自然资源可持续发展的角度,探讨了水库生态调度的概念和任务,建立了水库生态调度多目标数学模型。该模型以经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益组成的综合利用效益最大为目标函数,以综合利用要求为约束条件,包括灌溉、发电、航运、旅游、河口压咸和应急用水等。该模型为具有复杂约束条件的多目标规划模型。创建了可行搜索离散微分动态规划算法(FS DDDP算法)对该模型进行了求解。〖     

基于AHP LP法的南水北调中线水资源优化配置

水资源是不可替代的重要自然资源和战略性经济资源,水资源优化配置是解决水资源问题的重要手段。为促进区域水资源供需状况相对平衡,按可持续发展的要求,根据区域水资源优化配置的含义和南水北调河北省受水区的具体情况,以有限水资源综合效益最大为目标,考虑水源可供水量、用户需水量和水环境与经济系统协调发展等约束,采用层次分析法与线性规划法相结合的方法,建立了水资源优化配置模型,并对模型的目标函数、约束条件和主要参数确定进行了初步探讨。最后用该模型进行了南水北调河北省受水区2005年和2010年95%保证率下的水资源优化配置研究,并对求解结果进行了分析、评价及展望。结果表明,南水北调工程实施后,能够解决河北省受水区严重缺水的状况。     

起重机臂架结构的凸模型非概率可靠性分析

为预防大型工程中起重机安全事故,通过建立模型来衡量起重机臂架结构非概率可靠性。首先利用凸模型非概率可靠性相关理论,构建有代表性的凸模型——广义无穷范数模型,并用该模型来定义非概率可靠性指标;其次分析影响臂架结构非概率可靠性的不确定性参数;最后在凸模型的基础上,将非概率功能函数代入非概率可靠性指标中,求出臂架结构非概率可靠性。以某企业履带式起重机臂架结构为例予以分析,验证模型的有效性。研究表明:利用该模型分析臂架结构强度、刚度、稳定性等3方面,其结果与实际情况相符。