边境贸易发展的环境影响预测及其调控研究——以满洲里市为例

边镜贸易作为我国作为开放的重要组成部分，进展显著。本文在概述我国边境贸易发展所产生的环境问题的基础上，以我国最大的陆边口岸－－满州里市为例，运用灰色预测，动态规划等方法探讨边境贸易与环境保护协调发展的途径。     

污水处理工艺系统优化设计理论的研究与发展

综述了污水处理工艺系统优化设计理论研究的发展历史 ,分析总结了优化设计模型研究的发展规律以及需要解决的关键性问题 ;详细介绍了几个具有典型代表性的非线性系统优化模型的结构及寻优方法 ;从 6个特征方面横向比较了部分优化数学模型的研究成果 ;结合国内研究动态提出了对该领域研究前景的展望     

Decision making with option pricing and dynamic programming: development and application

In this study, an option pricing model and a dynamic programming model are developed. These models contribute to the improvement of the decision making process in two respects. First, these models allow for the own growth rate of mining costs to be incorporated into the analysis. Second, these models are developed to estimate the satisfactory gross revenue for investing, so that these models are helpful in analyzing multi-metal mines.The two models are applied to estimate the satisfactory revenue for investing in the Carlin east gold mine, Nevada, USA. The satisfactory revenue estimated by the option pricing model is found to be $42.2M, while that estimated by the dynamic programming model is found to be $44.4M. Since the revenue calculated on the basis of the current conditions is $36M, then the decision by option pricing and dynamic programming is to wait and not to invest now. Despite the difference between the two models in estimating and applying the discount rate, the two models generate the same decision.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.     

湖北省土地利用减碳增效系统仿真及结构优化研究

土地利用变化是引起碳排放的重要原因之一,土地经济效益是利用土地的目标之一,如何通过优化土地利用结构实现土地利用减碳增效是值得研究的重要问题。基于系统结构与功能相互作用的视角,梳理复杂系统内变量间的反馈关系,运用系统动力学(SD)进行建模,将约束条件纳入到多目标规划(MOP)中,实现MOP与SD模型整合,进行系统仿真并得出优化后2020年湖北省土地利用结构。结果显示,利用SD-MOP模型能够实现减碳增效目标下土地利用结构优化,与2008年真实值相比,耕地、林地、牧草地及建设用地分别增加了0.33×10~4、30.17×10~4、0.08×10~4和16.37×10~4 hm~2,其他农用地及未利用地分别减少7.23×10~4、33.15×10~4 hm~2;与无约束SD单模型仿真相比,土地利用碳排放量减少了58×10~4 t,经济效益年增长率维持在3.58%,优化方案具有可行性。SD-MOP模型优化的土地利用结构符合区域可持续发展要求,兼顾了土地利用碳减排和经济效益增长的双重目标,能为区域土地资源优化配置提供参考。     

滑坡预测的改进前馈网络方法研究

作者提出了滑坡位移预测的一种改进前馈网络方法——目的规划法,与通常的前馈网络方法相比,该方法改进了网络的准则函数,降低了网络的灵敏度,改善了网络的泛化性能,提高了滑坡位移的预测精度。同时它是一种面向数据的方法,适合于不同地区不同条件下滑坡的预测。清江隔河岩库区滑坡和卧龙寺滑坡的实例研究表明了该方法的可行性及有效性。     

结构分析中模拟与仿真技术研究

由于像洪水、水灾、地震这样一类自然灾害的原型重复试验几乎是不可能的,因此计算机仿真技术在这一领域的应用具有重要的意义。本文探索了土木工程中模拟与仿真的概念、特征及实现途径,阐述了关于仿真智能化、可视化的技术细节及仿真的基本思路;结合面向对象程序设计（OOP）概念,提出了结构分析程序设计的原则及标准。在此基础上,编写了基于Windows的结构有限元分析软件SmartSEA.     

Simulation-based fault propagation analysis—Application on hydrogen production plant

Recently production of hydrogen from water through the Cu–Cl thermochemical cycle is developed as a new technology. The main advantages of this technology over existing ones are higher efficiency, lower costs, lower environmental impact and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Considering these advantages, the usage of this technology in new industries such as nuclear and oil is increasingly developed. Due to hazards involved in hydrogen production, design and implementation of hydrogen plants require provisions for safety, reliability and risk assessment. However, very little research is done from safety point of view. This paper introduces fault semantic network (FSN) as a novel method for fault diagnosis and fault propagation analysis by using evolutionary techniques like genetic programming (GP) and neural networks (NN), to uncover process variables’ interactions. The effectiveness, feasibility and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated on simulated data obtained from the simulation of hydrogen production process in Aspen HYSYS^®. The proposed method has successfully achieved reasonable detection and prediction of non-linear interaction patterns among process variables.     

Fuzzy optimization of multi-period carbon capture and storage systems with parametric uncertainties

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important technology option for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions. In practice, CO₂ sources are easy to characterize, while the estimation of relevant properties of storage sites, such as capacity and injection rate limit (i.e., injectivity), is subject to considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainties need to be accounted for in planning CCS deployment on a large scale for effective use of available storage sites. In particular, the uncertainty introduces technical risks that may result from overestimating the limits of given storage sites. In this work, a fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) is developed for multi-period CCS systems, accounting for the technical risk arising from uncertainties in estimates of sink parameters, while still attaining satisfactory CO₂ emissions reduction. In the model, sources are assumed to have precisely known CO₂ flow rates and operating lives, while geological sinks are characterized with imprecise fuzzy capacity and injectivity data. Three case studies are then presented to illustrate the model. Results of these examples illustrate the tradeoff inherent in planning CCS systems under parametric uncertainty.