信号控制交叉口行人过街等待时间研究

为保护行人过街时的安全及减少行人违章行为,通过分析行人过街的等待规律,构建了信号控制行人过街等待的生存分析方法。对上海市典型交叉口的行人过街等待行为的观测及分析,得到了行人等待的生存曲线,建立了行人违章危险度随行人自身及环境因素影响的COX风险回归模型。结果表明:行人在路边等待过街最大可忍受等待时间为90s,在中间安全岛的最大可忍受等待时间仅为50s;行人等待时间与行人年龄、红灯时间、穿越车道数、冲突方向车流量、是否二次过街相关,与行人性别无关;合理的交叉口设计和信号控制能提高行人的遵章率、降低违章危险度。笔者建议:信号控制交叉口行人红灯时间不超过90s,行人在安全岛最大等待时间不超过50s。     

环境规制和产业集聚对能源效率的影响与作用机制：基于空间效应的视角

在中国向高质量发展转型下,探究环境规制、产业集聚对能源效率的作用,对实现“双碳目标”具有重要的现实意义。系统梳理了三者间的作用机制,并基于中国2006—2018年的数据,运用多种“近邻”权重下的空间杜宾模型,检验环境规制、产业集聚以及二者的融合发展对能源效率的溢出效应及其区域差异。研究发现：（1）环境规制和能源效率二者间存在“波特假说”,但这种效应却具有“度”的限制;产业集聚（专业化、多样化）能够有效地助推自身以及与之“相邻”（地理邻近、经济互动）地区能源效率的提升。（2）环境规制对能源效率的作用表现出明显的区域差异,且在中国东、中以及西部三区域间也具有显著的经济地理关联性;产业集聚对能源效率的影响也表现出明显的区域差异,东部来源于多样化集聚,而中西部来源于专业化与多样化集聚。（3）在效应分解方面,无论是全样本还是分区域样本中,环境规制、产业集聚对能源效率的空间溢出效应并不单单是由于地理“相邻”造成的,更多是地区间地理邻近与经济互动协同的结果。（4）环境规制与专业化集聚的融合发展,抑制了专业化带来的正效应,而其与多样化集聚的融合发展对推动能源效率提升具有更强效果。     

The impact of economic activity in Asturias on greenhouse gas emissions: consequences for environmental policy within the Kyoto Protocol framework

Climate change is one of the major worldwide environmental concerns. It is especially the case in many developed countries, where the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for this change are mainly concentrated. For the first time, the Kyoto Protocol includes an international agreement for the reduction of the net emissions of these gases. To fulfil this agreement measures designed to reduce or limit current emissions have to be brought into force. Consequently, fears have arisen about possible consequences on competitiveness and future development of manufacturing activities and the need for support mechanisms for the affected sectors is obvious. In this paper, we carry out a study of the emissions of gases responsible for climate change in Asturias (Spain), a region with an important economic presence of sectors with intensive emissions of CO(2), the chief greenhouse gas. To be precise, in the first place, the volumes of direct emissions of the said gases in 1995 were calculated, showing that the sectors most affected by the Kyoto Protocol in Asturias are iron and steel and electricity production. Secondly, input-output analysis was applied to determine the direct and indirect emissions and the direct, indirect and induced emissions of the different production sectors, respectively. The results derived from the direct and indirect emissions analysis and their comparison with the results of the former allow us to reach some conclusions and environmental policy implications.     

The case for regulating intragenic GMOs

This paper discusses the ethical and regulatory issues raised by “intragenics” – organisms that have been genetically modified using gene technologies, but that do not contain DNA from another species. Considering the rapid development of knowledge about gene regulation and genomics, we anticipate rapid advances in intragenic methods. Of regulatory systems developed to govern genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, the Australian system stands out in explicitly excluding intragenics from regulation. European systems are also under pressure to exclude intragenics from regulation. We evaluate recent arguments that intragenics are safer and more morally acceptable than transgenic organisms, and more acceptable to the public, which might be thought to justify a lower standard of regulation. We argue that the exemption of intragenics from regulation is not justified, and that there may be significant environmental risks associated with them. We conclude that intragenics should be subject to the same standard of regulation as other GMOs.     

The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/.     

Price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty: an info-gap robust satisficing perspective

Conventional wisdom among environmental economists is that the relative slopes of the marginal social benefit and marginal social cost functions determine whether a price-based or quantity-based environmental regulation leads to higher expected social welfare. We revisit the choice between price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty; that is, when uncertainty cannot be modeled with known moments of probability distributions. Under these circumstances, the policy objective cannot be to maximize the expected net benefits of emissions control. Instead, we evaluate an emissions tax and an aggregate abatement standard in terms of maximizing the range of uncertainty under which the welfare loss from error in the estimates of the marginal benefits and costs of emissions control can be limited. The main result of our work is that the same criterion involving the relative slopes of the marginal benefit and cost functions determines whether price-based or quantity-based control is more robust to unstructured uncertainty. Hence, not only does the relative slopes criterion lead to the policy that maximizes the expected net benefits of control under structured uncertainty, it also leads to the policy that maximizes robustness to unstructured uncertainty.     

Consolidation in an Individual Transferable Quota Regime: Lessons from New Zealand, 1986–1999

Market-based approaches to environmental regulation (such as tradable permits or transferable quotas) are frequently offered as innovative solutions to many environmental problems. Globally, one of the most well-established forms of this approach is individual transferable quotas (or ITQs) in fisheries management. Within the natural resource management community, there is considerable debate over the effects ITQs have on the fishing industry and fisher behavior although this approach is not well-established in the United States. The previously imposed moratorium on ITQs in the United States has expired and the 2006 reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Act explicitly provides for limited access privileges (LAPs). A variety of fishers, regulators, and conservation organizations are enthusiastically seeking to introduce ITQ management. With debate over whether and how ITQs should be used in American fisheries reinvigorated, it is timely to examine the evidence on the social and economic effects of ITQs in other nations’ fisheries. After briefly summarizing the debate on ITQs, we examine the case of New Zealand, one of the earliest and longest-lived ITQ-based fisheries regimes. We use multiple data sources and methods to analyze the extent to which industry consolidation and aggregation has occurred, including surveys of industry participants, expert interviews, reviews of academic reports and analyses, analysis of trade publications, and direct analysis of quota ownership patterns. This analysis shows a more complex outcome than recent debates in the ITQ literature would predict. These findings suggest that policy makers considering ITQs can learn from the experiences of other countries related to key issues such as quota allocation, aggregation limits, transferability, cost recovery, and resource sustainability when designing ITQ and other LAP systems. It is also important to explicitly identify economic and social objectives and then carefully design ITQ regimes to meet these objectives.     

南水北调中线北京段水质状况分析

水质是水资源管理部门关心的核心问题,北京市南水北调水质更是关系到北京市生活用水安全和社会稳定.收集了南水北调中线北京段通水以来大宁调压池和大宁调蓄水库两个监测点位的总氮、硝氮等10项月水质监测数据.采用方差分析法从不同角度分析了北京南水北调来水水质差异,采用因子分析法识别了大宁调压池和大宁调蓄水库的水质风险因子.结果表明,南水北调中线北京段冀水全年硝氮、总氮、氟离子、氯离子、硫酸盐含量高于江水,江水水质优于冀水.LSD差异性检验结果显示:冀水溶解氧、硝氮和总氮汛期和非汛期差异性显著(P0.05),江水pH汛期和非汛期差异性显著,水质较冀水更为稳定.无论在汛期还是在非汛期,江水和冀水在pH、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、总磷、氨氮这5个指标上差异性不明显(P0.05),而硝氮、总氮、氟离子、硫酸盐及氯离子则存在显著性差异(P0.05).大宁调蓄水库硝氮、总氮、硫酸盐及氯离子含量2015年(冀水+江水)全年低于2012~2014年(冀水),江水进京后在水库对冀水起到了很好的稀释调节作用.2012~2014年及2015年水库汛期和非汛期水质差异性检验结果均显示,硝氮、总氮、氟离子、硫酸盐和氯离子存在显著性差异(P0.05),非汛期水质2015年优于2012~2014年,其他pH、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、总磷、氨氮这5个指标差异性不明显(P0.05).调压池、大宁水库冀水汛期和非汛期差异性比较结果显示,高锰酸盐指数、总氮、氟离子、硫酸盐及氯离子差异性显著,其中高锰酸盐、氟离子、硫酸盐和氯离子水库高于调节池.因子分析的结果表明,大宁调压池和大宁调蓄水库潜在水质风险因子主要是氮元素,包括氨氮、硝氮和总氮,大宁调蓄水库水质潜在风险因子还包括总磷.     

水位调度运行对河道型水库水生态环境的影响—以沙河水库为例

基于自然的修复理念,以典型河道型水库—北运河流域沙河水库为研究对象,考察水位调度运行对其水生态环境的影响.结果表明,低水位运行期间,沙河水库月均出库水量增加149.48%,月均蒸发水量和渗透水量减少了34.17%和29.17%.沙河水库水质明显改善,沙河闸出库断面NH₄⁺-N、TN和TP平均浓度由（2.53±0.89）、（14.18±5.06）、（0.50±0.02）mg·L^-1降低到（1.12±0.11）、（5.61±1.45）、（0.19±0.01）mg·L^-1,其中NH₄⁺-N和TP稳定达到了地表水环境质量标准（GB 3838-2002）的IV类水要求(1.5 mg·L^-1和0.3 mg·L^-1).低水位运行期间,沙河水库库心区沉积柱（0～30 cm）和表层沉积物（0～4 cm）中TN、TP平均含量总体呈稳定下降趋势,降幅分别为57.62%、45.28%和64.16%、48.00%;沙河水库共记录水鸟70种...     

中国二氧化硫污染治理分析:基于卫星观测数据和空间计量模型的实证

中国经济的快速增长伴随着严重的环境污染问题,已经成为阻碍中国实现可持续发展的桎梏.为了客观地反映中国的SO₂污染状况,本文利用中国2005-2017年的卫星观测SO₂柱浓度数据来表征SO₂污染状况.首先,采用探索性空间数据分析方法进行SO₂污染的时空演变分析;然后,基于环境库兹涅茨曲线框架纳入社会经济驱动因素及环境规制,采用空间计量模型探究SO₂污染是否越过拐点,并借此探索环境规制对于中国SO₂污染治理的重要意义.结果表明：1华北地区是中国SO₂污染最严重的区域,但污染状况逐年改善.从长期时间趋势来看,尽管空气污染在个别年份中有所加剧,但整体上呈现向好的趋势.从空间上来看,SO₂污染在空间上明显存在正向的空间自相关现象.2环境库兹涅茨曲线实证结果显示,尽管回归结果呈现显著的倒N型曲线,但无实根解,说明无实质性的经济意义.从另一方面来说,在研究环境库兹涅茨曲线时,除了统计学意义之外,经济意义更为重要.3空间计量模型回归结果显示,经济增长与SO₂污染在样本期内存在单调递减关系.换言之,中国已经越过了环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点.此外,严格的环境规制有利于降低SO₂浓度.地区技术水平的进步及先进外资的“光环效应”都可以有效地改善SO₂污染.然而,人口密度增加、第二产业发展、电力消耗及固定资产投资增加是造成SO₂污染加剧的重要因素.