中国化肥资源供需矛盾及调控策略

鉴于中国化肥供需形势不清给产业调控带来不确定性影响,论文分析了化肥资源供需矛盾,并提出了相关调控策略。结果表明,中国化肥供需总量已经接近平衡,氮磷钾化肥的自给率分别达到100%、95%和29%。少部分产品存在缺口,其中氯化钾的自给率为23%,是当前我国惟一紧缺的化肥产品。随着化肥生产向资源产地集中,中国化肥供需时空不平衡有扩大的趋势。部分时间段的供需不平衡异常尖锐,其中10月份至来年3月份全国化肥供应过剩超过900×10⁴t,而部分月份却极端不足,例如7月份两广、东北等地的尿素缺口达200×10⁴t左右,10月份华北地区的磷酸二铵缺口达到100×10⁴t左右,而5、7、8三个月中两广地区的钾肥缺口也超过100×10⁴t。建议国家加强储备工作,储备化肥消费量的15%,其中10%储备在淡季,以减少过剩的压力,而5%储备在旺季,以应对市场供不应求。     

Econometric modeling of fisheries with complex life histories: Avoiding biological management failures

Economics of the fishery has focused on the wastefulness of common pool resource exploitation. Pure open access fisheries dissipate economic rents and degrade biological stocks. Biologically managed fisheries also dissipate rents but are thought to hold biological stocks at desired levels. We develop and estimate an empirical bioeconomic model of the Gulf of Mexico gag fishery that questions the presumptive success of biological management. Unlike previous bioeconomic life history studies, we provide a way to circumvent calibration problems by embedding our estimation routine directly in the dynamic bioeconomic model. We nest a standard biological management model that accounts for complex life history characteristics of the gag. Biological intuition suggests that a spawning season closure will reduce fishing pressure and increase stocks, and simulations of the biological management model confirm this finding. However, simulations of the empirical bioeconomic model suggest that these intended outcomes of the spawning closure do not materialize. The behavioral response to the closure appears to be so pronounced that it offsets the restriction in allowable fishing days. Our results indicate that failure to account for fishing behavior may play an important role in fishery management failures.     

Bag leakage: The effect of disposable carryout bag regulations on unregulated bags

Leakage occurs when partial regulation of consumer products results in increased consumption of these products in unregulated domains. This article quantifies plastic leakage from the banning of plastic carryout bags. Using quasi-random policy variation in California, I find the elimination of 40 million pounds of plastic carryout bags is offset by a 12 million pound increase in trash bag purchases—with small, medium, and tall trash bag sales increasing by 120%, 64%, and 6%, respectively. The results further reveal 12–22% of plastic carryout bags were reused as trash bags pre-regulation and show bag bans shift consumers towards fewer but heavier bags. With a substantial proportion of carryout bags already reused in a way that avoided the manufacture and purchase of another plastic bag, policy evaluations that ignore leakage effects overstate the regulation's welfare gains.     

调水调沙对黄河口海域大型底栖动物群落的影响

于2013年调水调沙前(未开始)、中、后(结束)分别对黄河口海域18个监测站进行了3个航次的大型底栖动物调查,对调水调沙期间大型底栖动物与环境因子的关系进行了研究. 结果表明:3次调查共发现大型底栖动物118种,生物量在调水调沙前、中、后分别为(4.31±1.43)、(5.57±3.85)和(4.04±1.38)g/m2,栖息密度分别为(241±59)、(173±44)和(199±40)ind/m2,并且3次调查期间的生物量和栖息密度均无显著差异(P>0.05);调水调沙期间优势种更替不明显;Shannon-Wiener多样性指数等级在调水调沙前、后均评价为“好”,调水调沙期间为“中等”. 冗余分析表明,除少数机会种和污染指示种外,多数大型底栖动物对环境因子的生态需求为深水、高pH、高盐度和高ρ(DO)(DO为溶解氧). 调水调沙影响范围为调查扇面的东北及河口海域,出现软体动物死亡、多毛类机会种等数量大幅增加的现象. BOPA(底栖动物多毛类机会种和端足目动物)指数和环境因子统计分析显示,调水调沙期间大部分站位环境质量良好,河口污染有加重趋势.      

基于气候调节的城市通风道探析

近年来,夏季炎热的气候和愈来愈强的热岛效应使城市饱受因挠,而城市设计策略中缺乏有效的生态规划方法来解决目前存在的问题,城市对炎热气候的适应性不足。论文在利用CFD(计算流体动力学)技术进行实例模拟分析的基础上,重点介绍了一种在城市尺度进行节能设计的新方法:在城市中建立多种形式的通风道,提高城市的通风和排热能力,以达到利用自然资源和有效的规划方式降低夏季城市“热岛”温度、节约能源的目的。文中详细论述了通风道的可行性和必要性、营建方式、注意原则等问题,并进行了一系列的计算机风场模拟研究。     

EFFECTS OF INCREASED DELTA EXPORTS ON SACRAMENTO VALLEY'S ECONOMY AND WATER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Exports from the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta are an important source of water for Central Valley and Southern California users. The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyze the effects increased exports to south of Delta users would have on the Sacramento Valley economy and water management if water were managed and reallocated for purely economic benefits, as if there were an ideal Sacramento Valley water market. Current Delta exports of 6,190 thousand acre‐feet per year were increased incrementally to maximum export pumping plant capacities. Initial increases in Delta exports did not increase regional water scarcity, but decreased surplus Delta flows. Further export increases raised agricultural scarcity. Urban users suffer increased scarcity only for exports exceeding 10,393 taf/yr. Expanding exports raises the economic value of expanding key facilities (such as Engle bright Lake and South Folsom Canal) and the opportunity costs of environmental requirements. The study illustrates the physical and economic capacity of the Sacramento Valley to further increase exports of water to drier parts of the state, even within significant environmental flow restrictions. More generally, the results illustrate the physical capacity for greater economic benefits and flexibility in water management within environmental constraints, given institutional capability to reoperate or reallocate water resources, as implied by water markets.     

沱江流域生态安全预警及其生态调控对策

从沱江流域生态安全预警入手,基于压力-状态-响应(pressure status response,PSR)模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析、时间序列预测、模糊综合评判、主成分分析方法对流域2010、2015、2020年的生态安全状态进行评价与预警研究.结果表明:(1)沱江流域各区段在2010、2015、2020年3个时段内,整体上呈现全流域生态安全跃升的趋势,生态安全状态逐步好转;(2)纵观2010-2020年期间流域内各区段的生态安全变化,上游区段的生态安全状态明显好于中下游区段,其次为中游区段,下游区段的生态安全状态最为令人担忧.因此,沱江下游是流域内生态安全建设的重点;(3)沱江流域2010-2020年生态安全预警分为3类:安全区域、持续危险区域和退化区域.安全区域包括沱江上、中、下游的21个市县区;持续危险区域涵盖了中、下游的8个县区;退化区域为中游的2个县;(4)沱江流域生态安全预警的主要预警因子可以归纳为植被覆盖与农业灾害因子、人口素质因子、土地承载力因子、景观格局因子、面源污染因子、水土流失因子6大类.针对沱江流域生态安全预警因子的分析结果,提出以下生态调控对策:(1)积极修复植被,改善生态环境;(2)增强农业的防灾减灾能力;(3)加强技能培训,提高人口素质;(4)合理利用土地资源,提高土地承载力;(5)优化土地利用结构,加大景观多样性;(6)提倡生物防治,控制面源污染;(7)大力进行水土保持建设.     

温度对铜绿微囊藻细胞浮力的调控机制

为了探讨温度对铜绿微囊藻细胞浮力的调控机制,将铜绿微囊藻分别置于10、15、20、25、30℃条件下,利用改良的percoll密度梯度离心法测得细胞密度,计算出细胞浮力大小,同时测量细胞内比生长速率、光合活性、NAD(P)H依赖型氧化还原脱氢酶活性、糖含量、蛋白含量和漂浮细胞百分比.结果显示,在实验温度范围内(10~30℃),随着温度升高,铜绿微囊藻的漂浮细胞百分率增加,浮力变大;同时,细胞内糖含量减少,蛋白含量增加,光合作用和NAD(P)H 依赖型氧化还原脱氢酶活性增强.10、15℃条件培养7d,细胞的密度分别增加了2.7%和1.3%,糖含量分别增加了95.3%和65.5%,漂浮细胞百分比分别降低了23.8%和18.3, NAD(P)H依赖型氧化还原脱氢酶活性分别降低了23.8%和18.3%;而20、25和30℃条件培养7d,细胞的密度则分别减少了2.8%、3.8%和3.2%,糖含量分别减少了8.5%、2.9%和19.4%,漂浮细胞百分比分别增加了0%、7%和8.5%,NAD(P)H依赖型氧化还原脱氢酶活性分别增加了0%、7%和8.5%.研究结果显示:温度主要通过影响铜绿微囊藻细胞的光合速率、生长代谢速率和伪空胞含量来改变细胞密度实现浮力调节.低温下糖含量增加是浮力消失的主要原因,细胞漂浮与沉降的温度阈值在15~20℃之间.     

基于水污染总量控制的土地利用管控分区——以无锡市为例

分区管控研究是水污染控制研究的热点,基于水污染控制的土地利用管控分区,是实现水污染“源头控制”的有效途径之一。论文从土地利用变化的水环境效应出发,立足区域水污染总量控制目标,综合考虑污染负荷允许排放量、水质净化功能和排污地段的敏感性程度等约束条件,探讨了以水污染总量控制为目的的土地利用管控分区方法,尝试将区域水污染分配任务量控制要求,转化为其对社会经济、土地利用等的约束与调整。研究以无锡市为例,采用目标函数熵值法对水污染物总量进行公平分配,通过各评价单元所需控制污染减排量、水质净化功能价值以及环太湖不同地段保护需要的三维等级解析,将无锡市划分为不同污染控制程度的6 个土地利用管控区,并根据不同管控区土地利用-水污染输出特征,提出相应的管控措施。     

Do environmental regulations disproportionately affect small businesses? Evidence from the Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures survey

This paper examines whether the impact of environmental regulations differs by the size of the business. We consider the net effect of statutory, enforcement, and compliance asymmetries by estimating the relationship between plant size and pollution abatement expenditures, using establishment-level data on U.S. manufacturers from the Census Bureau's Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey and from its Annual Survey of Manufactures and Census of Manufactures. We model establishments' pollution abatement operating costs (PAOC) per unit of economic activity as a function of establishment size, industry, state, and year. Our results show that PAOC intensity increases with establishment and firm size.